Mayo – Australia 2022

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  1. Sharkie has firmed up against Liberals, but her survival depends on Labor and Green oriented voters either lending her their vote, or preferencing her over each other.

    Unlike Indi, Mayo is actually marginal LIB vs ALP. Even after a term, Sharkie’s primary is in the mid 30s compared to Zali Steggall’s 43% and Wilkie’s 50%

    People who follow politics will know Centre Alliance (mainly Stirling Griff in the senate) have voted for several things that would put Labor and Green voters off side.

    Would both parties advertise that fact to sour voters on Sharkie? Maybe. Both parties need to juice their senate vote. The Greens in particular would like to get their pre-2016 vote back here for a difficult senate race. The classic 2PP margin in Mayo is actually quite close and it could be a tantalising gain prospect. Additionally, Sharkie would be unlikely to back a Labor government, while Greens may find her an unwelcome presence in various balance of power scenarios.

    If Labor and Greens don’t seem interested in the seat (which will be obvious months before election day), then Sharkie should retain.

  2. I have read that Rebekha Sharkie is in trouble here, but the LNP don’t seem to be gaining ground here either this will be an interesting seat to watch.

  3. Bob, If you were reading that indaily article saying the Liberals would be on 40% of the primary vote, It is heavily unreliable and I would take it with a huge grain of salt, UComms is perhaps one of the most unreliable pollsters in the country and you have to be careful looking at seat polls.

    Sharkie to retain with around the same margin as last time.


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