Goldstein – Australia 2022

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  1. I expect Brighton and Sandringham to flip to Labor next year as especially in Newbury’s case, Is an appalling conservative Dutton supporting state MP.

    History on the other hand will favour Wilson and being a moderate small-l liberal will really help him hold onto the key moderates to stop this seat from becoming a marginal one. If Wilson somehow goes down then I expect the Liberals will only have 1 seat left in Melbourne (Menzies) No way they hold Aston,Kooyong and Higgins if they cannot hold this.

    Liberal hold.

  2. Marko check out the 2010 result in Aston, Hope this helps. Similar boundaries and it was more marginal than Goldstein. The margin is inflated with Tudge’s personal vote.

  3. 2010 was 11 years ago, look at the last state election (Ferntree Gully and Rowville are safer than Brighton and Sandringham)

  4. For what it’s worth, I’ve heard there’s been an exodus of inner-city Melburnians to the outer eastern suburbs (i.e. Aston, Casey, Deakin) in recent times.

  5. It’s been reported a voices for Goldstein grassroots movement has been formed earlier this year led by environmental philanthropist David Rothfield. The hopes is running an independent candidate in a similar campaign as Cathy McGowan and Zali Stegall. Like Sophie Mirabella, Tim Wilson is a very polarising Liberal. That doesn’t been though he is completely vulnerable though, the reasons Mirabella and David Feeney became vulnerable by independent/minor party is they were not very well liked in their electorates.

    Labor had a primary vote of 28% in this seat from the last election. Its not as prominent as Bennelong but its not as non existent as Warringah either. I would love to see Wilson gone but not sure the stars will completely align for an independent here.

  6. PN
    “Tim Wilson is a very polarising Liberal.”
    How ? Isn’t he “emblematic” of the “modern” liberal ? He is so smooth, it’s like oily

  7. @Winediamond

    For example Tim Wilson used a tax funded Parliamentary inquiry into Labor’s Franking Credits policy. It was designed for partisan point scoring and is not what inquiry’s are supposed to be used for. Parliamentary inquiries usually investigate government policies and their impacts, not those of the Opposition. It was a complete breach of standards and conventions.

  8. PN
    Ah yes. That old thing..! Technically you may well be right. I seem to recall past discussions with you more broadly on this subject. Leaving aside the issue itself, the content etc. Perhaps i’d suggest that parliamentary inquiries have been mounted for far more frivolous reasons than turning 40 years of public, & economic policy direction on it’s head. Not to mention that it was introduced with bipartisan support, in the first place.
    Having said that Yes there was plenty of “point scoring”. Because the WAS plenty to be had ! It was a profoundly stupid policy. In fact i can’t think of a better reason for an inquiry than highlighting stupid policy ! Whether that of the government or the opposition is actually irrelevant (at least to me )
    As for “standards and conventions.” Seriously PN !!??
    i’m almost insulted !. After all this time we have known each other ? You talk to ME about “standards and conventions?” I’ll quote John Golightly
    “Rules are made for the interpretation of wise men, & the obedience of fools”

    I still don’t see how merely chairing the inquiry positions Wilson in a particular way ? Someone had to…!
    cheers WD
    ps Don’t you think Labor have used parliamentary inquires for unclean if not nefarious purposes ? I wonder if anyone has a story ?

  9. Tim Wilson is what Barnaby Joyce would be like if he lived in Melbourne and traded his ten gallon hat for Finasteride.

  10. From what I gather from the few people I know who live in Goldstein, Tim Wilson is quite popular. There may be some disaffected Libs in the “Voices of ..” movement but it just seems to be a vehicle for a whole lot of champagne socialists who live in nice suburbs and are tired of voting for the losing side. The Libs should put the blowtorch on them before the election and then turn the blowtorch on the Nats afterwards for putting them in that position. Seriously, if voters want change they should vote for a party who can govern rather than one that may be just left ss impotent bystanders.

  11. Redistributed
    How exactly could the libs apply a “blowtorch”? and why would they?. It is difficult to imagine the” voices people” as ANY kind Liberal party person. Surely these people have other priorities than “conservative values”? AND have had long term ? Surely winning & losing is not the point. It the purity, & righteousness of the cause(s) !. Contemptible Grandstanders & hypocrites, IMV, bet i know more (of them)than anyone else does.

    very, very clever. One of your best ever comments . Had to google finnistride..! However Wilson is a 3 fixation & Vanity is their passion, whereas Barnaby is an 8 fixation & revenge is their passion. So i don’t see Barnaby ever looking after himself in a metrosexual way. He just isn’t that kind of bloke

  12. Former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel is set to run for federal parliament as a pro-climate independent in the Melbourne electorate of Goldstein backed by ‘voices for Goldstein’.

  13. I expect Zoe to come 2nd place. The question is can they push Wilson’s primary vote under 50%

    If he wins between 47-50% he is safe
    He is in danger if he gets between 45-47% but still should scrape across
    Anything below a Liberal primary of 45% means he will go down to a Zali Steggal city type independent.

    If I were them I would be showing great concern about this and put more resources into holding this then trying to hold seats like Swan,Pearce and Hasluck

  14. Daniel
    Have you even looked at the AEC results?
    This posturing lightweight hypocritical reprobate won’t even get past the Greens. Zoe works for the New Daily. Funded by Industry Super Funds. IF an SSMF trustee siphoned (stole !?) funds from their OWN Fund they could be fined 48% of the value of his fund, & prosecuted.
    But Industry funds can just appropriate members funds to start their own newspaper !!!!. Does that sound to you like compliance with “the sole purpose test”? (of maximising the retirement benefits the members) ?
    Of course not. These Industry Funds members, are often the lowest paid workers in the country. IS Someone who turns a blind eye to this kind of “exploitation or opportunism,” at best, (I’m trying to be polite) really an appropriate Representative ?

    Personally i find the New Daily totally disgusting, & condemn anyone associated with, let alone employed by it.
    Oh & just to close the circle the New Daily also pays the ABC to supply, or regurgitate content.More members funds expended, or mis directed depending on your POV.

    Consequently i disagree with you about sandbagging Goldstein. If Wilson can’t hold this seat & recover the 3.66% he lost in 2019, then he should be dis – endorsed for being completely useless.

  15. Nah, despite being a Greens member of all things winediamond Zoe Daniel will definitely make the top two here. Heck, in a slightly smaller microcosm a 19 year-old who was still on his L-plates and had a campaign budget of $1,750 nearly won Brighton. Be memorable, and not a Liberal patsy, and you seem to do pretty damn well.

  16. One of the odd things about Goldstein in 2019 was the disparity in swings between booths – and significantly adjacent booths where there would be no readily explainable issue or socio economic difference.
    I agree with Daniel above that below 45% is the danger zone for Tim Wilson. Looking at a few seats where there was a “Voices of..” type candidate in 2019, it is interesting to note that the Greens preference flow was significantly or still very much to the ALP. The Voices of candidate will need to come a good second and the Lib vote to be below 45% for Tim Wilson to be in trouble. Another factor in Goldstein is that there are pockets of lower socio economic and public housing and these will help the ALP rather than a third candidate. With Zoe Daniel as a high profile candidate, the Libs will be sandbagging.

  17. It think Zoe Daniel is a live chance.

    Corruption/ICAC and Climate Change may indeed find 1 in 5 Liberals in seats like Goldstein scrambling to “send a message.” After that all she would need is some bleed from Greens and Labor and then preferences from the rest.

  18. redistributed /Bennee
    Well Gentlemen, i guess we’ve made our positions clear !. It will be an interesting election night.

    I’M genuinely curious , actually intrigued, as to how 20% of the 52000 +(= 11000 in 2022) will change their vote “Corruption/ICAC and Climate Change may indeed find 1 in 5 Liberals in seats like Goldstein scrambling to “send a message.” . What will propel them after the 2019 so called “CLIMATE CHANGE ELECTION” !? Why wasn’t “the message” SENT then!? If it was so important !?

    I don’t get the importance of “Corruption/ICAC” ? what am i missing ?

    “Zoe Daniel as a high profile candidate” Maybe she is. However i’ve already pointed out that she is also a 10th rate human being, with a non existent genuine moral compass.
    Apparently acquiescing, condoning, ignoring or just taking the retirement funds of Industry funds members is quite OK with everyone. Good to know ! If that is the kind of “high profile” candidate you are all impressed with – marvellous , just sensational ! And all you blokes reckon you stand for social justice ?

  19. WD
    Until we have a reasonably fixed and consistent approach to climate change in this country, then every election will be a ‘climate change election’. In jurisdictions where there has been a policy consensus such as NSW, SA or the UK then it will be an issue but not a defining issue. The days when only coal could provide base load reliable power have gone – big batteries have seen to that – but the nation is being held to ransom by a small group of Queensland National MPs who have no policy position beyond propping up the coal industry. With the waffling and flip flops from Scott Morrison this week, the moderate Libs must have sore heads from banging them against the walls of their offices.
    As for you WD, we do know your sympathies lie with the Liberal Democrats with their ‘let it rip’ libertarian philosophy – as they have only an ‘amoral compass’ – may explain your ‘spray’ against Zoe Daniel.

  20. Labor and the Liberals basically agree on climate change, in that it’s a PR problem and not much else. On a policy level there’s not much to separate them, and given that both support massive expansion of fossil fuel exploration, take millions in fossil fuel donations, and give millions more back to those companies in taxpayer subsidies, I don’t expect Labor will present any meaningful differences before the election’s over. But Labor recognised years ago that the issue is important to the electorate, even if Labor no serious intentions of doing anything about it, and Rudd made the effort to pander to that before Howard, who completely misjudged the politics. The perception’s stuck, even if it’s policy kayfabe.

    I don’t know if 2022 is going to be ‘a climate election’ any more than every other year, but the difference is that the Liberals don’t have much else to misdirect with, and Wilson already had a pretty heavy swing against him last time anyway. As for ICAC and corruption generally, if Wilson wants to argue that it’s not important because Zoe Daniel writes for a piddling little online newspaper, then please please please go ahead. It’ll be very entertaining.

  21. redistributed
    I’ve written plenty about the CC issues. Until realism & truth is applied to the whole issue & the the true costs, & consequences of all actions past, present & future are fully disclosed there will be NO resolution. No amount of propagandising, fear mongering, or catastrophism will change this, by you or anyone else. Incidentally i completely disagree with everything you wrote.

    As for your sledge against the LIB DEMS attempting to portray them as “purist” libertarians, is as puerile, & pathetically binary, as to portray the ALP as “purist” Trotskyists !.
    “‘amoral compass’ Really ? Only the left have humanity, compassion, care, & values (like justice) Seriously mate.
    “explain your ‘spray’ against Zoe Daniel.” Simple : i despise hypocrisy & moral cowards.
    Hope that clears a few thing up for you mate.

  22. Big turnout for Zoe Daniel’s launch party today, between 100-200 at least, judging by photos and footage, and her website claims they have more than 1000 volunteers signed up. An impressive organisation and outpouring of support for a very thin policy suite- she’s only promising to *halve* emissions by 2030, which if replicated worldwide would be utterly, woeful inadequate to keep below 1.5C cooling. Regardless, embarrassed tree Tories are very motivated this election.

  23. Furtive Lawngnome
    Was really impressed with your November 26, 2021 at 10:37 pm post. A very clearly stated position & view. ” Kayfabe ” had me googling as usual with your posts !.

    There were 14000 Greens voters in Goldstein in 2019 & 26000 ALP voters . How sure are you, that the vaunted “1000 volunteers signed up, & embarrassed tree Tories are very motivated this election”.Are not just DEFECTORS !? Just electoral t-shirt swappers, & switchers, as it were !!!?

    Alegra Spender has “her “people decked out in Teal (coloured) T-shirts isn’t that so cool !? Or does it signify that they are just Green “dilettantes”?. No real cred at all ?

  24. It’s definitely possible that some of them are volunteering for multiple candidates. But generally when you’re at the point that you literally bought the t-shirt (usually a membership perk, but whatever) you’re generally pretty committed to the cause, and wasting your time shilling one candidate is time not spent volunteering for the one you presumably like. From the perspective of the Greens in particular, Zoe comes up short on the flagship issue of the party, and fails miserably on everything else other than ICAC, so why waste our weekends propping her up? Maybe Labor supporters aren’t so scrupulous, I don’t know.

    tbh I think teal is the perfect choice for the Voices project. I laughed when I saw the tshirts.


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