ALP 9.4%
Incumbent MP
Zaneta Mascarenhas, since 2022.
Geography
Swan covers suburbs in the inner south of Perth. This includes the entire Belmont, South Perth and Victoria Park council areas and parts of Canning, Gosnells and Swan council areas. Swan covers the suburbs of Victoria Park, Cloverdale, Kewdale, Rivervale, Bentley, Cannington, Como, Manning, Beckenham and Lynwood.
Redistribution
Swan shifted south, gaining Ferndale, Lynwood and Wilson from Tangney and Beckenham and Langford from Burt. Swan also lost Forrestfield and High Wycombe to the new seat of Bullwinkel. These changes increased the Labor margin from 8.8% to 9.4%.
Swan is an original federation electorate. It was first held by John Forrest for the Protectionist party from 1901. Forrest was the first Premier of Western Australia and moved to federal politics in 1901. He served as a minister in various governments, including four stints as Treasurer, the last being in the year up until his death in 1918 under Billy Hughes.
The ensuing by-election was won by 21-year-old Labor candidate Edwin Corboy when the Nationalist and Country Party candidates split the conservative vote. This led to the government introducing preference voting, and he lost the seat at the 1919 election to John Prowse of the Country Party. The Country part held the seat until 1943, first John Prowse then Henry Gregory and Thomas Marwick. Marwick was defeated by the ALP’s Donald Mountjoy in 1943, and Mountjoy was defeated by the Country Party’s Leonard Hamilton in 1946.
The Parliament was expanded in 1949 and Hamilton moved to the new seat of Canning, and the Liberal Party’s Bill Grayden won the seat. The ALP’s Harry Webb won the seat in 1954 and held it for one term until 1955, when he moved to the new seat of Stirling. Richard Cleaver of the Liberals won the seat in 1955 and held it until his defeat in 1969.
Adrian Bennett held the seat for the ALP from 1969 until 1975, when John Martyr won the seat for the Liberals. Martyr was a former state secretary of the Democratic Labor Party. He was defeated in 1980 by Kim Beazley.
Beazley held the seat until 1996, when he moved to the safer seat of Brand. Don Randall won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and was defeated in 1998. He later moved to the nearby seat of Canning and held it from 2001 until his death in 2015.
ALP candidate Kim Wilkie won Swan in 1998. He held the seat until the 2007 election, when he was the only sitting Labor MP to be unseated, losing to Steve Irons. Irons was re-elected four times, and retired in 2022.
Labor candidate Zaneta Mascarenhas won Swan in 2022.
Assessment
Labor holds Swan by a substantial margin, but if there is a swing back towards a closer race in Western Australia this seat could be in play. Mascarenhas still has a good shot at re-election, particularly with the benefit of a new personal vote.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Zaneta Mascarenhas | Labor | 39,082 | 39.1 | +6.2 | 40.0 |
| Kristy McSweeney | Liberal | 32,096 | 32.1 | -12.7 | 31.6 |
| Clint Uink | Greens | 14,861 | 14.9 | +2.9 | 15.1 |
| Peter Hallifax | One Nation | 2,544 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 2.5 |
| Paul Hilton | United Australia | 2,637 | 2.6 | +0.8 | 2.5 |
| Dena Gower | Australian Christians | 1,930 | 1.9 | +0.2 | 2.1 |
| Rod Bradley | Western Australia Party | 2,059 | 2.1 | +0.7 | 2.0 |
| Timothy Green | Animal Justice | 2,214 | 2.2 | +0.9 | 1.8 |
| Matthew Thompson | Liberal Democrats | 1,821 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.6 |
| Carl Pallier | Federation Party | 792 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.9 |
| Informal | 5,545 | 5.3 | -0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Zaneta Mascarenhas | Labor | 58,796 | 58.8 | +12.0 | 59.4 |
| Kristy McSweeney | Liberal | 41,240 | 41.2 | -12.0 | 40.6 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, south-east and west. The “west” area covers the South Perth council area.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.4% in the west to 66.1% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.4% in the south-east to 18.3% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 18.3 | 65.1 | 16,480 | 17.6 |
| West | 16.7 | 51.4 | 13,524 | 14.4 |
| South-East | 16.4 | 66.1 | 12,538 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 13.0 | 59.7 | 29,533 | 31.5 |
| Other votes | 13.6 | 55.8 | 21,765 | 23.2 |
Election results in Swan at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Greens seemed to have improved here at the state level in the 3 state seats.
The big swing away from state Labor in Victoria Park and big swings to the Greens and Liberals were mainly due to the controversy of the V8 Supercars proposal. That’s what I heard from the ABC.
I don’t think there’s much clear evidence at this stage to support the idea that the proposed speedway had a big impact on Labor’s vote in the adjoining state seats of Victoria Park and Belmont though it was being used in campaign material. The swings were largely in line with similar metro seats. The Greens did see swings to them larger than the state average but I think this may just as much be down to demographic shifts that are making seats like Swan more inner city in character and therefore more friendly to the Greens.
Swan should be a comfortable Labor hold, I don’t think they’ll lose much of their 2PP margin it’s in that category of inner metro seats that Labor should do better than average in nationwide.
I’m predicting a 2-3% swing so it will be relatively safe
The Racetrack in Burswood was definitely very unpopular with locals and may have contributed an extra 2% to the swing. Greens in this area seem to be do better federally than State. The removal one Forrestfield, High Wycombe and part of Wattle Grove will benefit the Greens. Beckenham, Cannington and Queens Park’s demographic is slowly becoming more friendly to Greens.
I expect them to get around 20% in Swan and Labor to comfortably retain Swan. I think this is one of those seats that may not be won by the Liberals again for the foreseeable future.
Agreed Paterson the Libs seem to be doing better in the seats north of the swan. Seats like Hasluck and Pearce would be more vulnerable. Probably cowan in a few cycles and if alb retires it should be easier.
Is this a safe ALP seat now?
The seat is very mixed demographically so not a single community of interest. before the election I said of all the 2022 gains Swan, Boothby and Reid will not be won back so Libs will need to look for 3 others. the seat is not mortgage belt it has small l liberal areas in South Perth and CALD working class including Muslims in the east so a toxic combination for Dutton.
When it gains another seat it might be winnable but not until then
I don’t get why this is “unwinnable”? I certainly think it is winnable.
Np, I would agree more with nimalan. Whilst not considered totally unwinnable for the libs, I see it more of a second or even third tier target that the party will only want to go after when they are riding high (like 2013 or 1996).
The recent election shows the Coalition are more comfortable competing in the outer suburban seats, so I probably see Burt as an easier target for elections beyond 2028 rather than Swan.
@ Yoh An
I still dont think Burt is more winnable than Swan. Burt is quite CALD by Perth standards and is mostly working class but there some more mortgage belt middle class areas. I expect Burt to diversify further in the years to come so that trend will help Labor. Also areas like Byford which are Liberal leaning and currently semi-rural will merge into Perth and become more Gawler which is trending Labor. Swan has generally been a Labor leaning seat see Antony’s graph below even when the Libs won the seat. Labor underperformed massively in WA from 2007 until 2022 which explained why Labor did not win in 2007, 2010 and 2016 so it is really a seat that as Yoh An correctly stated is generally won at very good elections for Libs unless there are WA specific factors.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2025/guide/swan
Fair point Nimalan, although with Burt it is only the northern suburbs around Gosnells that are considered Labor leaning as the party only held the seat of Gosnells/Thornlie continuously throughout Colin Barnett’s term as Premier. Other seats like Jandakot and Oakford which cover the southern parts of Burt are actually considered swing or somewhat conservative leaning that saw above average swings against Labor at the state election, so it is different compared to Swan which covers traditional Labor suburbs such as Belmont and also the affluent inner suburbs that saw below average swings against Labor.
Agree Yoh An,
Perth being a smaller city means many of their seats are more mixed demographically so Burt cannot be compared directly to Labor heartlands like Calwell, Chifley, Blaxland etc. Although by Perth standards it is quite strong for Labor but not to the extent as Brand, Fremantle and Perth.
So, I guess Burt is probably equivalent to a seat like Greenway being Labor leaning that the Coalition/Liberal party will only win at landslide victories such as 2013 and 1996.
Rankin in Queensland, especially if it pushes south to absorb more of Logan Council after the next redistribution to offset the transfer of southern BCC suburbs like Stretton/Calamvale into Moreton, would be like Burt being a mixed seat that could be vulnerable at high tide elections for the Coalition.
@yoh an Rankin was not super safe and the parts of forde that rankin will likely take it have been comeptivie for the libs at high tide elections
@Yoh An, so in that case would Burt be a seat the state Liberals could win various parts of, given Greenway was within Liberal seats on the state level from 2013 to 2023?
Yes NP, Burt covers the state seats of Oakford and Jandakot which could be won by the Liberals (possibly as early as the next election in 2029 if they get a big swing and run a more targeted campaign).