Mulgrave – QLD 2020

ALP 10.9%

Incumbent MP
Curtis Pitt, since 2009.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Mulgrave covers the Queensland coast between Deeral and the southern suburbs of Cairns, including Gordonvale, Edmonton, White Rock, Woree and Bayview Heights. Mulgrave covers the Aboriginal Shire of Yarrabah and parts of the Cairns local government area.

History
The seat of Mulgrave has existed continuously since 1950. For most of that period it was dominated by the Country/National Party. Since 1989 it has been dominated by the ALP, although the seat has changed hands on a number of occasions.

The seat had been held by Country or National Party MPs continuously for the length of the party’s term in government from 1957 to 1989.

In 1989 the seat was won by the ALP’s Warren Pitt. He was re-elected in 1992 and briefly became a minister in the Labor government in early 1995, before losing his seat to the National Party’s Naomi Wilson at the 1995 election.

Wilson briefly served as a minister in 1998 before losing Mulgrave to One Nation’s Charles Rappolt at the 1998 election. Rappolt’s time in the Parliament was brief. He faced attacks over domestic violence allegations, and he resigned in late 1998.

At the 1998 by-election Warren Pitt won back Mulgrave, giving Peter Beattie a majority in the Legislative Assembly.

Pitt was re-elected in 2001. In early 2004 he was reappointed to the ministry. He served in the ministry until his retirement in 2009.

At the 2009 election Mulgrave was won by Pitt’s son Curtis Pitt. The younger Pitt has been re-elected three times, in 2012, 2015 and 2017.

Candidates

  • Attila Feher-Holan (Katter’s Australian)
  • Curtis Pitt (Labor)
  • Gerry Vallianos (Liberal National)
  • Assessment
    Mulgrave is a safe Labor seat.

    2017 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Curtis Pitt Labor 13,25648.1-2.8
    Karina Samperi Liberal National 6,28722.8-8.6
    Sue BertuchOne Nation6,15822.3+22.3
    Carmel Murray Greens 1,8576.7+2.7
    Informal1,4164.9

    2017 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Curtis Pitt Labor 16,78960.9-2.0
    Karina Samperi Liberal National 10,76939.1+2.0

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

    Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.4% in the south to 66.2% in the north.

    One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 18.3% in the north to 24.1% in the south.

    Voter groupON primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
    North18.366.26,43323.3
    Central20.364.94,90117.8
    South24.161.43,11111.3
    Pre-poll25.255.410,16936.9
    Other votes22.961.22,94410.7

    Election results in Mulgrave at the 2017 QLD state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

    6 COMMENTS

    1. That 94% booth (Yarrabah) must be Labor’s best in the state.

      Labor would’ve lost this under CPV in 2012 – 34.5% primary vote, a lucky escape. As it is, it’s another one of those seats where One Nation could jump the LNP and cut the margin. Sill a Labor retain, though.

    2. I finally get around to commenting on Mulgrave… from my notes…
      Looks like an ALP Retain on paper, but was one of 11 seats to ON in 1998, and had a strong ON last election. KAP are contesting and polled strongly in 2012. Possible LNP/ON Gain if the LNP/ON/KAP votes come together and over come ALP, which should have a swing against it. The Pitt name does have currency in this area and that personal vote is what saves the ALP here.

      Prediction (August 2020): Lean ALP

    3. Labor retain, But on the topic of “Mulgrave” the way things are going in Victoria i wouldn’t be surprised if Dan Andrews loses his Mulgrave in 2 years time, the hard lockdown has given the VICALP abmysal internal polls in their marginals, even as high as 70-30

    4. I doubt it, Daniel.

      A major redistribution will occur for Victoria’s state boundaries. Just looking at the growth patterns, I would expect Mulgrave will lose its Liberal-voting north and push right down into Springvale/Noble Park, making it a very safe Labor seat.

    5. I saw someone recently say Labor need to be careful here. I have said Labor will have an awful night in the regions but not here. Curtis Pitt is a beloved member. If he ever retires (while a Labor gov is in power) the by-election there would be interesting.

      Labor Retain.

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