LNP 4.19%
Incumbent MP
Ian Berry, since 2012.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Ipswich covers the central suburbs of the city of Ipswich on the southern side of Bundamba creek, specifically the Ipswich central business district, Woodend, Booval, Newtown, Eastern Heights, Raceview, Churchill, Yamanto and parts of Bundamba.
History
The seat of Ipswich was first created in 1860, and existed continuously until 1960. It was restored at the 1972 election. The seat has been held by the ALP since 1983.
The newly restored seat of Ipswich was first won in 1972 by Llewellyn Edwards. He was appointed to the ministry in 1974. In 1978 he became Deputy Premier and Liberal Party leader, and continued in those roles until his retirement in 1983.
David Hamill won the seat for the ALP in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss Labor government from 1989 to 1996. Hamill served as Treasurer in the Beattie government’s first term from 1998 to 2001, when he retired.
Rachel Nolan won Ipswich in 2001. She held Ipswich for four terms, and served as a minister in the Bligh government from 2009 to 2012, covering portfolios such as Finance, Transport and Arts.
In 2012, Nolan was defeated by LNP candidate Ian Berry.
Candidates
- Tim Stieler (Family First)
- Ian Berry (Liberal National)
- Patricia Petersen (Independent)
- Jennifer Howard (Labor)
- Pat Walsh (Greens)
Assessment
Ipswich was considered a safe Labor seat before the 2012 election, and will probably return to Labor in 2015.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Berry | Liberal National | 10,023 | 35.87 | +6.81 |
| Rachel Nolan | Labor | 8,703 | 31.14 | -29.02 |
| Will Keys | Katter’s Australian | 4,041 | 14.46 | +14.46 |
| Patricia Petersen | Independent | 2,470 | 8.84 | +8.84 |
| Veronica White | Greens | 1,568 | 5.61 | -1.09 |
| Tim Stieler | Family First | 880 | 3.15 | -0.93 |
| Robert Jeremy | Independent | 259 | 0.93 | +0.93 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ian Berry | Liberal National | 12,243 | 54.19 | +20.90 |
| Rachel Nolan | Labor | 10,351 | 45.81 | -20.90 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Ipswich have been split into three parts: east, west and south.
The Liberal National Party topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 32.5% in the east to 38.1% in the south. On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP’s majority ranged from 51.6% in the east to 56.6% in the south.
Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 29.7% in the south to 31.9% in the east.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a vote ranging from 13.7% in the east to 15.4% in the south.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| South | 38.11 | 29.72 | 15.44 | 56.63 | 10,642 | 38.08 |
| East | 32.48 | 31.89 | 13.70 | 51.60 | 7,670 | 27.45 |
| West | 35.92 | 31.22 | 14.78 | 53.86 | 3,296 | 11.80 |
| Other votes | 36.17 | 32.59 | 13.57 | 53.29 | 6,336 | 22.67 |
This will be one of the bigger swings to Labor on election night. I don’t think the state wide swing will be double digits like some are suggesting and I think different seats will do different things but this could be upwards of 12-15 percent swing to Labor.
Between katter and Peterson you are talking 23% of the vote last election. I wouldn’t be so bold to call a double digits swing if you think the rest of the state average is single digits. I wouldn’t expect all 23 percent to go to labor. Petersons voters will go all over the place including the greens. Katter may hold some of it or leak a bit to Palmer. I can even see some katter go to the lnp.
I have this down as a labor win but the swing won’t be 12%
The swing against labor on the primary vote was 30% and 20% after preferences in a heartland seat. If the swing was single digits ur saying labor stocks are still toxic. Nolan wasn’t a great local MP and heavily attacked for asset sales which are now on the LNP agenda. This is one seat that will swing heavy to labor in double digits. Katter votes likely came from labor so they will either stay with KAP go to PUP or go back to labor. It’s hard to see a situation where the LNP will have a single digit swing here
Labor probably would have been able to hold Ipswich last time if Nolan had quit. A large portion of the swing was anti her. This is still very much the kind of seat that fits into the Labor heartland bracket….. The people just wanted to punish their member for showing non labor values
What does a candidate have to do to get included on a local electorate profile?
Until the official declaration of nominations, there is no official list of declared candidates in a seat. The lists featured on this blog are compiled from numerous sources, including party websites, comments on this blog, news stories and web searches. In the case of Labor, the LNP, Palmer United Party and the Greens I have found official lists on their websites and I consult these lists occasionally.
I don’t try and claim that it is a complete and final list. Candidates for small parties and independent candidates can be missed, and major parties are still preselecting for some seats.
Moreover, I’m not making it my job to seek out local news stories and websites of small political parties to ensure every candidate is located.
If a candidate is missing, you can post their name in the comments section on that page, and I will add them to the list. This can take up to a week before I have a chance to make an update.
Frequently asked questions
Leader of Australian Independents… Sort of defeats the purpose of voting for an independent
This one is gone for the lnp. Ian berry has worked hard, however with the recent federal election results translating to a 60% vote for labor in these boundaries dont be suprised if the swing is +10%
Limited Green preferences here, esp. with OPV.
A primary vote of 40 will win it here. With the absence of a BobKat, Jen Howard should get that easily.
My prediction: ALP gain.