Senate – Queensland – Australia 2019

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2019Term due to expire 2022
Fraser Anning (Independent)1 Matthew Canavan (Liberal National)
Chris Ketter (Labor) Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
Ian Macdonald (Liberal National) Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
Claire Moore (Labor) James McGrath (Liberal National)
Barry O’Sullivan (Liberal National) Amanda Stoker (Liberal National)3
Larissa Waters (Greens)2 Murray Watt (Labor)

1Fraser Anning replaced Malcolm Roberts on 10 November 2017 following the High Court ruling that Malcolm Roberts was ineligible to sit.
2Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters on 10 November 2017 following the High Court ruling that Larissa Waters was ineligible to sit. Larissa Waters returned to the Senate on 6 September 2018 after Andrew Bartlett’s resignation.
3Amanda Stoker replaced George Brandis on 21 March 2018 following George Brandis’s resignation.

History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.

From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.

The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.

The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.

The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.

The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.

The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.

In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.

In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.

2016 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal National 960,46735.3-6.14.5851
Labor 717,52426.3-2.23.4253
One Nation250,1269.2+8.61.1941
Greens 188,3236.9+0.90.8990
Liberal Democrats77,6012.8+2.20.3705
Nick Xenophon Team55,6532.0+2.00.2657
Family First52,4531.9+0.80.2504
Katter’s Australian Party48,8071.8-1.20.2330
Glenn Lazarus Team45,1491.7+1.70.2155
Animal Justice32,3061.2+0.10.1542
Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP)30,1571.1+1.10.1440
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers29,5711.1+0.40.1412
Liberty Alliance29,3921.1+1.10.1403
Marriage Equality23,8110.9+0.90.1137
Australian Cyclists Party19,9330.7+0.70.0952
Drug Law Reform17,0600.6+0.60.0814
Democratic Labour Party15,4430.6+0.30.0737
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party14,2560.5+0.50.0681
Others115,1344.2

Preference flows
Eight seats were won on primary votes – the LNP won four seats, Labor won three and One Nation one. Larissa Waters was elected further on in the count.

We now fast forward to the last nine candidates competing for the final three seats:

  • Barry O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.6797 quotas – up 0.0946 quotas
  • Chris Ketter (ALP) – 0.5862 – up 0.1609
  • Rod McGarvie (FF) – 0.4487 – up 0.1983
  • Malcolm Roberts (ON) – 0.4456 – up 0.2515
  • Gabe Buckley (LDP) – 0.4320 – up 0.0615
  • Suzanne Grant (NXT) – 0.3358 – up 0.0701
  • Paul Bevan (AJP) – 0.3194 – up 0.1652
  • Rowell Walton (KAP) – 0.3066 – up 0.0736
  • Glenn Lazarus (GLT) – 0.2991 – up 0.0836

Malcolm Roberts had performed particularly well on the preferences up to this point, as had the Animal Justice Party.

Glenn Lazarus preferences pushed KAP ahead of AJP, and particularly helped One Nation, pushing Roberts ahead of McGarvie:

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7020
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6372
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.5124
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.4662
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4387
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.3856
  • Walton (KAP) – 0.3470
  • Bevan (AJP) – 0.3285

Animal Justice preferences helped Family First claw back some of One Nation’s lead, but Roberts still stayed in an election-winning position.

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7243
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6878
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.5459
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.5250
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4510
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.4014
  • Walton (KAP) – 0.3612

KAP preferences helped Roberts extend his lead over Family First, and close in on Labor.

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7757
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7337
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.6430
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.5852
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4695
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.4429

NXT preferences pushed Ketter into the lead, while also extending Roberts

  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.8594
  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.8475
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.7220
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.6201
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4951

LDP preferences pushed the LNP over quota, while taking Labor close to winning the eleventh seat. Family First weren’t able to close the gap on One Nation, and thus Roberts won the twelfth seat:

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 1.0433
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.9621
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.7764
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.6706

Candidates

  • A – Graham Healy (Rise Up Australia)
  • B – Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)
  • C – Clive Palmer (United Australia)
  • D – Liberal National
    • Paul Scarr
    • Susan Mcdonald
    • Gerard Rennick
    • Ian Macdonald
  • E – Allona Lahn (Involuntary Medication Objectors)
  • F – Kris Bullen (Climate Action)
  • G – Karagh-Mae Kelly (Animal Justice)
  • H – Larissa Waters (Greens)
  • I – Fraser Anning (Conservative National)
  • J – Labor
    • Nita Green
    • Chris Ketter
    • Frank Gilbert
  • K – Andrew Lewis (Independents for Climate Action Now)
  • L – Gregory John Bradley (Australian Workers Party)
  • M – Darren Caulfield (Better Families)
  • N – John Jiggens (Help End Marijuana Prohibition)
  • O – Lyle Shelton (Conservatives)
  • P – Lindsay Temple (Democratic Labour)
  • Q – Joy Marriott (Katter’s Australian)
  • R – Hetty Johnston (Independent)
  • S – Arjay Rase Martin (Great Australian)
  • T – Brandon Selic (Pirate)
  • U – Cameron Murray (Sustainable Australia)
  • V – Kim Vuga (Love Australia or Leave)
  • W – Jeff Hodges (Shooters Fishers & Farmers)
  • X – Tony R Moore (Independent)
  • Y – Gabe Buckley (Liberal Democrats)
  • Z – Jan Pukallus (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Ungrouped
    • Debby Lo-Dean (Independent)
    • Gary Robert Sharpe (Independent)
    • Paul Larcombe (Independent)
    • Jane Hasler (Independent)
    • John Woodward (Independent)
    • Nicholas McArthur-Williams (Independent)
    • Hassan Ghulam (Independent)
    • Wayne Wharton (Independent)
    • Amanda Murphy (Independent)
    • Paul Joseph Stevenson (Mental Health Party)

Assessment
Labor and the LNP will likely each retain the two seats they currently hold.

The Greens (running former senator Larissa Waters) will be likely competing with Labor to win the third ‘left’ seat.

One Nation will be aiming to win back the seat they lost when Fraser Anning left the party, although the LNP will also have their eye on that seat.
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112 COMMENTS

  1. That’s democracy for you. In this case the will of Queenslanders at the polling station who voted One Nation only to have one of candidates go Independent.

  2. Daniel
    I hope you are right but I fear not. My hope is that Liberal Government re-enacts Sedition Laws and that By May Anning is facing a Sedition trial and will not be eligible to stand. Sharkey spent six months in jail in 1955 for stating thatAustralian People would welcome a Soviet invasion.

    We do not pay tax so that Anning can provide aid and comfort to far right or the likes of Jim Cairns could similarly provide aid and comfort to Communist regimes.

    ALP Greens and Government are full of winging but what action have they taken. Minimum should be losing his travel allowance for six years. As he is one of my representatives in Canberra Ibthink I would be better off being in-represented. This bloke has to be dealt with and I see no sign of Government ALP Greens or minor parties doing anything other than winge.

  3. Lance Sharkey was Secretry General of Communist Party 1948 to 1965 ???. As far as I know he is not related to Rebekah.
    He wrote the CPA manual on infiltration of Trade Unions .
    In 1955 he stated that if Soviet Army were to land in Australia they would be welcomed by Australian workers. Petrie reported that he had paid Sharkey a large amount of money from USSR £25K ??? Sharkey was charged with Sedition in 1955/56 convicted and spent 6 months in jail..

    Sedition was “ causing dissafection amongst the Queen’s subjects” subjects included aliens whilst they were located in Australia (and possibly other parts of the then Empire).
    There is no doubt in my mind that those stirring up racial hatred would have been guilty of Sedition. John Howard repealed the sedition laws as part of terrorism legislation. Sedition only requires talk terrorism laws require action.
    Sedition Laws would pick up
    Wire neo fascists advocating hatred of Islam
    Islamic fascists advocating hatred of western ideas
    Anning and Hanson seem to be able to get away with what would once have been seditious but not get picked up by race discrimination laws.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  4. Galaxy state wide QLD poll is this:

    LNP 35%
    Labor 34%
    Greens 10%
    One Nation 8%
    UAP 5%

    On these numbers if replicated in Senate voting you would have to say that the major parties winning three Senate seats would be hard. But United Australia Party polling might make One Nation nervous if they think their with in a shot of taking the last Senate seat. A lot of soft vote seems to be there which some of it will likely come back to the major parties on election day. Which still gives an element of volatility and unpredictability in this election.

    Still tipping at this stage:

    LNP: 2
    Labor: 2
    Greens: 1
    One Nation: 1

  5. One Nation will only win on these figures if KAP Country Party and DLP voters preference Ashby-Hanson. My preferences will not be finalised until close of nominations BUT UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES will Ashby-Hanson be above both majors. Therefore My preferences will go to major parties ahead of PHON. Pauline Hanson has policies which will cause growth of hatred. She and anyone who supports her must be defeated to keep our way of life.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@ bigpond.com

  6. When will Katter, Country Party DLP get around to announcing their Senate candidates.
    To have any chance you need to be campaigning early and 107 days from election is not early.
    Tally Room still states election must be held before mid May . I am reverting to my original prediction date of 2 June 2019 rather than 25 May I have been suggestin for last 8 months.

  7. It is amazing that 1.2 Million people have signed a petition to have Anning removed from the Senate. Throwing him out of Senate is not an impossibility but will require legislative changes.
    Anning must be tossed out by legislative or electoral means.

  8. Andrew Jackson

    There is a good reason the Liberals and ALP wont kick Anning out.

    Think who our refugee policy of putting so-called illigal refugees offshore. Even when proved they are actual refugees, they are keep there as they might be terrorists. What do they have in common? Mostly Muslim.

    The only reason the leaders are against what Anning has said, is because he shows that Australia basically believes what he said.

  9. I know he has no chance of re election but I Still will really be hoping QLD don’t return Anning to the parliament. He is a disgrace to the Senate and to our nation with his comments.

  10. Talking to a number of MPs offices this week I get the impression that decisive action will be taken against Anning this week and that this action will go beyond a mere censure motion. I think will be an interesting week in politics.
    Pauline Hanson has done a lot of damage to her reputation this last week. I hope I am wrong but I doubt whether her voting base will have changed their votes. She has lost Liberal Preferences in Qld Senate race this might be important.
    No one should decide who to Preference last until close of nominations. A uniformed NAZI might stand and un-uniformed fascists certainly will. Therefore party negotiators who make promises to Preference candidate x at this time are acting irresponsibly.

  11. Andrew
    I am inclined to think that Malcolm Roberts will be back in Senate after election but I hope not.
    Anning’s candidacy could wreck Ashby-Hanson’s chances.
    PHON will not get a quota so will have to rely on preferences therefore any party negotiating with her should realise they have more to give than she has. My recommendation is put her below the majors. If Roberts was not tainted by association with Hanson I would put him above majors.
    Australian Conservatives distributing a pamphlet seeking Senate balance of power see my comment in Longman string. Distributed in Longman but aimed at Senate.

  12. Andrew Jackson,

    My thoughts are that it will actually require preferencing a range of other (less) right wing parties in front of Anning and Hanson.

    The How to Votes would look ridiculous though, the 1 to 6 How to Vote for the senate is likely here to stay.

    Perhaps a
    1 ALP
    ….
    6Lib

    And

    1 Lib
    ….
    6 ALP

    Could have some affect, but it really depends who has surplus votes and who is chasing the 5/6 spots.

  13. Fraser Anning would appear to be having difficulty registering his party due to objections from Nationals and others. If he had put application in six months ago this would not be a problem but the moment writs are issued AEC will stop all work on party registration, name, logo and Registered Officer name changes.
    If election is 11May we will know in next few days. If AEC gets additional funding in budget tonight to count Senate ballot papers we can assume election early June.
    Anning will run as an independent and I doubt if he can man more than 1% of booths. Even with a party name he will have no party structure.

    There are roughly 1800 booths in Queensland and 60 pre poll booths. This means to put a single person on every booth you need 24000 hours work. Liberals in recent years seem to have been able to put 6 to 9 on big booths meaning 120 000 hours work.
    The logistics of doing this from Parliamentary Office are way beyond Senator Anning’s ability or resources. Major Parties have Branch’s statewide with a relatively polished decentralised logistics framework.
    Running out of HTV in Burpengary is solved by driver picking up from Morayfield and adjusting quantities during day. This human skeleton can not be built up from scratch. Supporters who will work will have no HTV and no show supporters will not even be noticed. HTV May even be at booth but worker poached by another party on day T shirt changed and Party A HTV placed under chair out of sight and Party A worker has become Party B worker.

    Anning will split PHON vote and hopefully keep both out of Parliament. Similarly DLP, KAP
    And Palmer vote will be split but most of these voters are more experienced and preferences will flow.
    If anyone wants to see the depth of understanding of electoral system of Anning’s supporters look at David Anning’s ( Senator’s Brother) Facebook page.

  14. Clive Palmer now appears to be running in the senate rather then Herbert, I dont believe this will change the outcome that much, i’ll predict 2 LNP, 1 ON, 1 GRN & 2 ALP.

  15. Labor and Liberals will lock in two senate seats and One Nation will lock it in one.

    It was reported in the Australian that the fight will be for the last senate seat. It was reported Greens senator Larrisa Waters maybe under threat and it will be a tussle between Greens, LNP, One Nation, and UAP for the last senate seat.

    However One Nation drop in polling and spectacular stumbles recently may have cost them any chance of gaining a 2nd senator.

    The Adani issue may help Larrisa Waters from some voters particularly in South East Queensland who oppose the project. But Waters will have to contend with the Labor vote rising with some of the soft Greens vote going back to Labor.

  16. PHON were never going to get 2 senators in a half election. Even an astoundingly strong vote like their QLD State election result (20% in the seats they contested) gets them 1 seat.

    I am maintaining that it will be ALP 3, LNP 2, GRN 1 due to the far right vote being split at least 6 ways (LNP 3, PHON, Katter, Palmer, Shelton, Anning), with plenty of exhaust from minor party only voters.

  17. John
    How do you justify calling Katter and Palmer far right? Socially Conservative Yes, but they are both pro government intervention in economy. Palmer eve promised to Nationalise without Compensation any hospital sold off by Newman pro market extremists.
    Katter is not ashamed to wear the label “agrarian socialist” but there is no doubt that economically Katter is to Left of all main stream parties excepting possibly the Greens.
    It is not right wing to propose
    1) Break-up of retail duopoly
    2) Support for Australian Industry
    3)Arbitration of both wages and prices
    4) Centralised marketing of Agriculture Products.

    Katter had stronger links to post WW11 ALP. His father was a QLP (DLP) Candidate.

    Katter gets significant support from First Nations people. His immigration policy is based solely on two factors
    ability to integrate and contribution to Australian economy.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

    I repeat my original question Why is it you classified Katter and Palmer as far right.

  18. My prediction
    LNP 3
    ALP 2
    And 1 minor Conservative probably determined by LNP and ALP preference overflow or If ALP do really well a Green replacing minor Conservative.

    Anning will be gone with each of Katter Palmer, Bernardi or Hanson having a better chance of picking up the last place.

    To a great extent this will be determined by legs on ground. Palmer has spent millions and this has not made him a certainty so money alone is not enough.

    Preferences of the hopeless in a non derogatory meaning will play a big part in determining order of exclusion. eg if a Centre Alliance candidate stands and passes to Palmer this may result in Palmer staying in for long enough to pick up Katter Preferences and combination enough to beat Hanson.
    The failure of any minor Conservative (other than Palmer’s) to stand in unwinnable House seats will determine Senate result.

  19. Unbelievable! Posts from several weeks ago calling for Anning to be the subject of sanctions under sedition laws, isn’t this the sort of action that progressives call “archaic” and “retrograde” oh, and one of my favourites; “draconian”? But if you want to turn a man into a martyr….

  20. Don’t think the LNP will get 3 seats if we are assuming a substantial vote for conservative minor party candidates, safest bet is likely 2 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 Green and 1 ON

  21. Andrew Jackson, in past elections I would have agreed with you about Palmer and Katter, but the former has a lot more in common with One Nation this time around, including Brian Burston in NSW. Katter carried Fraser Anning in his party and has been making similar remarks himself on Q&A.

    At any rate they’re competing for the same votes as the Ashby- Hanson party.

  22. Yes they are competing for the same votes but so are ALP LNP and Greens.
    Palmer in my view is not ideologically driven. I suspect he is commercially driven. However I gave you examples of Palmer’s less than far right perspective. Burston is disposable and was recruited to get Parliamentary Party Registration.

    What policies are Palmer and Katter espousing that are far right.

    Neither of them are racist both are pro government role in economy and both support public support for Australian Industry. In fact can anyone tell me what policies they have that they disagree about?

  23. Andrew Jackson

    Just because you think they are not right wing, does not make you correct. You could be.
    I see them as right wing based on their past, where their votes usually come from, among other things.
    Both come from the Coalition.
    Both get preferences from the LNP and other right wing parties and tend to preference the same way.
    But one thing that doesn’t make them right wing is they seem to stand for themselves. Both made a name for themselves and then trade on a gimmick.

    Instead of nationalise a hospital, which will cost a lot. Why doesn’t Palmer just buy one? He has the money to fully fund several hospitals. If he did that or promised to, he has my vote. Currently how much tax does he pay? Bare minimum?

    If Katter wants to do all those things good on him. Only bit I hear is that he represents farmers and queensland.
    And the Greens also say they want all that done. There are more Greens then Katter.

    This is my opinion, just as what you write is yours.

  24. Both Katter and Palmer emerged via the conservative party (or anti labor) parties in Queensland. As such it is reasonable to place BOTH on the right side of the spectrum.

    Katter of course I think would have been on the left of the nationals and is more in the mould of McEwen etc and as such I think it is reasonable to place him in the centre, recognising that he IS leftwing on quite a few policies.

    Palmer is more complicated. He was of course the driving force behind the Joh for Canberra campaign and was for many years the major contributor to LNP coffers. Socially i think he is reasonably moderate and economically it is confusing. I would not place him anywhere near the left but perhaps these days in LNP ters he would be and therefore qualifies as a centrist.

  25. Katter,s father was DLP originally

    Katter’s weakness when it comes to National politics (and his strength when it comes to his electorate) is that he always puts his electorate first.
    Windsor and Oakshott’s biographies both cite his total unwillingness to take ethanol fuel off the list of demands. Don Lane’s autobiography cites Bob’s abuse of him when he was minister for transport for failing to fence the Railway line between Townsville and Mt Isa.

    Katter is pro Union pro Arbitration pro government monopoly on natural monopolies, anti the Wooly’s Coles’ duopoly.
    This certainly does not make him Left Wing but his economic policies are closer to traditional ALP than Liberal party. Many of his supporters are right wing but he and his party are just about dead centre on Australian political spectrum. Classifying him as Right wing is indolence on part of journalists who can not stand anything other than a negative/ positive number line.

  26. I really appreciate the work people are putting into informing themselves about the candidates so they can vote conscientiously. But don’t let it end there – please take responsibility for directing your preferences from start to finish – NUMBER EVERY BOX. I know – I know! Doing this demands a greater time commitment in the polling booth, but it is so important to keep control of your vote and how it is placed and directed, and not allow preference deals to take control of your vote.

  27. Palmer is indeed commercially driven and unreliable…. but when push. comes to shove he will vote with the right. Katter is much more complicated he sees himself as of the right overall but not the.lnp or facisist right
    Andrew describes him quite well

  28. Clive Palmer or Malcolm Roberts will win the last spot in the Senate. Larissa Waters may be popular in West End Brisbane but drive 2 hours north or 30 mins south or 30 mins east and very few people will vote for her. The Greens have done themselves no favours. The personal attacks from Di Natale and Waters and other Greens candidates has put off even die hard Greens supporters.

  29. I’m going to wait longer to see more polling National and Statewide before deciding how Palmer’s travelling before tipping. Individual seat polling has always been dodge. In the Australian LNP sources has suggested the LNP are polling to win two senate seats in Queensland which is likely a concession they are not in the running for a third seat. I’m starting to think it will be more likely One Nation will miss out on a seat after UAP secured LNP preferences. A increase Labor vote should help the Greens with preferences with any votes left over after Labor secures the first two quotas.

    2. Labor
    2. LNP
    1. Greens
    1. UAP/One Nation????

  30. I think the preference deal the LNP has done with UAP has done them no favours. More likely preferences will see Clive Palmer win the final seat probably at the expense of PHON. Factor in also that the LNP candidates are newbies and will have no personal vote that Ian Macdonald would have had, it will probably end up as 2 LNP, 2 Labor, 1 Green and 1 UAP/PHON. PHON will stumble this election in Queensland not caused by their NRA dramas but more to the fact their vote will be splintered with a lot of it going to either Anning or Palmer, there will also be some soft PHON voters who might go back home to the LNP.

  31. Indeed. PHON have little on the ground presence and have relied on media to drive up their vote. Now they will be squeezed because Anning is getting the media and Palmer has his millions in paid advertising. If PHON had an active grassroots campaign they could countered this, but it seems like it was all too much trouble. Too many cranky and self-opinionated bogans to deal with?

  32. Peterjk23
    I am no friend of Pauline Hanson. However I dissagree that she has little on the ground. She has a problem with a membership who are ignorant, over opinionated, under informed and have an inability to compromise. Think of a room full of Doug Cameron style bigots and you can recognise the difficulty Ashby – Hanson have in herding one Nation goats. From what I saw in Longman by election Ashby Hanson are quite capable of manning booths but probably lack the logistical skills to organise distribution of How to Votes to a city electorate let alone the hundreds of booths in Leichardt or Herbert.
    Anning’s lot are the flotsom and jetsam of 0ne Nation, KAP, Liberal Party. Debate with them and you become a Communist. They in fact make Ashby-Hanson look competent.

    In fact it will be Palmer who has most difficulty in manning booths. You can outsource marketing, printing and logistics but ultimately on Election Day it is very difficult to outsource booth management and near impossible to outsource booth working. Inexperienced candidates stuff it up. Booth Captains need to be experienced or at least trained. Family First had plenty of workers but they were babes thrown to wolves. Ten years handing out prayer books does not prepare one for being sworn at or even spat at. Major Parties have a huge advantage on Election Day. Rosters with overlap of workers is a a huge benefit compared to the prospect of 10 days prepoll followed by Election Day.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  33. @Andrew

    Indeed, Palmer has almost no on-the-ground volunteers, but in 2013 he just paid for people to hand out his HTVs. Can’t verify, but I’m told he used the companies who hire out the people who solicit for charity donations in shopping centres etc.

    You’re right that inexperienced people will stuff it up, but didn’t stop him.

  34. Thanks Andrew,
    A by-election is one thing, where you can just round up all the most active people for a one-off. But that’s completely different from running a statewide campaign like they are being forced to do now…Because Palmer and Anning are running in every seat, for the very first time PHON are being forced to do likewise, but only in Qld and WA where they are defending top-line senate candidates. This is amazing when you think about the rich vein of support the media has carved out for them. The Greens have been running in every seat for years, Palmer has now done it twice and small niche parties like CDP, Animal Justice and Sustainable Australia have also managed to run in many more seats. PHON didn’t even contest the Victorian election and ran in just a handful for the NSW one. To me it reeks of a franchise, gifted by the corporate media (& perhaps the security services?) as a social release valve, so that their supporters feel they are being listened to and preventing a social explosion &/or the growth of extremist groups.
    I was being sarcastic about bogans, if the recent Al Jazeera Gun Nation ‘expose’ revealed anything, its how naive and incompetent the leadership of this party is. They really don’t seem to have a clue how to organise.

  35. The problem with most minor parties both those that I fully support and those that I detest is
    1) no structure
    2) a centralised decision making structure.
    Greens are the exception

    Even though they want a total centralisation of Government they maintain a structure that is decentralised.

    Why is this so?

  36. Peterjk23
    Hanson runs candidates where
    1) She will receive electoral funding from electoral commission
    And
    2) a candidate will pay for campaign plus a profit margin to the supplier.

    Malcolm Roberts is by far the best PHON has produced. But this is Not saying very much.

    Roberts will be above Anning and the Greens on my ballot paper in the same way Franco and Mussolini would have been above Stalin and Hitler.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  37. Expat
    You are quite correct that at State Election 2013 Palmer paid staff to hand out HTV. See my comments about how effective this was at Monkland State School Gympie. They spent 90% of day sleeping under a tree. Casual employees like this need supervision and whilst merchandising companies may be able to supervise 20 employees in 20 Malls throughout Qld they can not supervise 2000 odd booths throughout Queensland. I spent last 20 years of my working life in School Supply and I witnessed many large businesses make the mistake that logistics is an insignificant problem to easy to master. Some of these were very large Fast Moving Consumer Goods suppliers who only found out that a delivery to Mackenzie River State School was a 5 hour job not an afterthought on way back from a major delivery. Mackenzie River was the example I use because I knew it but it is hardly remote. For the uninformed Senate Candidate Mackenzie River is half way between Dingo and Mt Flora. There are hundreds of these polling booths. PARETO principles do not apply in Qld elections especially for close contests.
    This is the great mountain that only the Major Parties are prepared for.

  38. PHON May have workers to hand out HTV but they will not have a clue whether the HTV are being paid for from
    NRA funds
    Party contributions made by candidates
    Electoral funding paid into personal bank accounts
    They will not know if Arthur or Martha is the candidate. Are the votes cast as the result of the HTV going to go to Steve Dickson or not.
    After seeing PH on a current affair tonight they will not know if the candidate they elect will be subject to direction by a leader who has final say.
    I would say that cry baby is on final legs politically and her party is obviously on final legs morally.

    I thought she had handled an obviously difficult problem fairly well on ABC News earlier in day but the melt down with Tracy Grimshaw was one of the worst performances by any politician in TV history.
    Cry Baby should go back to fish and chips.
    She has the worst record for selecting candidates in Australian Political Hidtory but having them throw in towel before the shower is hot takes the prize.
    Why is it that she has the worst record for candidate selection of any political leader in history?
    Why does she pick candidates with the quality of Steve Dickson?

  39. While my initial thoughts about Hetty Johnstonel’s campaign was she no hope, I travelled a bit over the long weekend and I think she may have a chance. I noticed her signs in Moncrieff, Fadden, Forde, Rankin, Bowman, Moreton, Fairfax and Wide Bay.

    She does have a bit of profile and previous campaign experience. Labor also has her on their preferences.

    The big if is whether her signage reflects her booth capacity. If she has workers across many seats then she has a shot. Even if its just the one or two of the bigger booths in many of the seats. She needs a strong presence at pre poll next week too.

    A real outside shot, but if the Greens fall short and Labor’s preferences need to go somewhere…

  40. Most electorates are approx 100K voters. Excluding pre polls most booths are in the 1K to 3 K range. It takes more than a few booths to have an impact.
    A minor party independent needs to man just about every booth in state to get to Quota. Hetty Johnson is a one issue candidate and I suspect her journey into politics will do her more harm personally than the good it will do to her cause.

    To be continued.

  41. Of the Groups with HTV cards shown on the ABC election guide, only the fellow independents of Group X (presumably a relatively small outfit unlikely to have all that many booths manned) advise to preference Hetty Jonhonson`s group R and even they only do so in 5th position. Running as a group of independents, rather than as a party, significantly decreases the visibility to voters not already looking to for her/her group (it would be a different story if her name were printed above the line).

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/senate-qld-htv/

  42. My intention was to look at AEC booth figures and drop these into Excel and find out how many booths need to be manned to get a quota assuming 100% of Votes going to Hetty Johnson. Unfortunately this is beyond my ability with access to just a phone. Therefore unable to complete last post.

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