Moncrieff – Australia 2019

LNP 14.6%

Incumbent MP
Steven Ciobo, since 2001.

Geography
Moncrieff covers the central part of the Gold Coast, covering the coast from Miami to Paradise Waters and Southport, and as far inland as Nerang.

Redistribution
Moncrieff expanded to take in Molendinar from Fadden. This cut the LNP margin from 14.9% to 14.6%.

History
Moncrieff was first created at the 1984 election, and has always been held by the Liberal (National) Party.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Kathy Sullivan, who had been a Queensland senator since 1974. Sullivan held the seat until 2001, serving continuously in Parliament for 27 years, a record for any female parliamentarian. She served two brief terms in the Opposition shadow ministry in the 1980s and 1990s, and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government from 1997 to 2000.

Sullivan was succeeded in 2001 by Steven Ciobo. Ciobo has been elected in Moncrieff six times.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Steve Ciobo is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Moncrieff is a safe LNP seat. Steve Ciobo’s retirement will hurt the LNP vote but it probably won’t be enough to change the outcome.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Steven Ciobo Liberal National 50,68859.0+3.358.4
Hayden Sheppard Labor 20,95624.4+3.624.6
Roger Brisbane Greens 8,69710.1+3.710.1
Julie RoseFamily First5,6196.5+4.46.5
Others0.5
Informal4,0114.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Steven Ciobo Liberal National 55,82464.9-3.064.6
Hayden Sheppard Labor 30,13635.1+3.035.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.1% in the west to 67.2% in the east.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 8.7% in the west to just under 12% in the east and north.

Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East11.767.218,73921.0
North11.659.815,25017.1
West8.759.114,01315.7
Other votes9.965.914,85716.6
Pre-poll8.967.726,44229.6

Election results in Moncrieff at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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8 COMMENTS

  1. The reports on the ABC Steve Ciobo is set to retire from politics at the next election and speculation Peter Dutton may set his sights on trying to parachute into the safe LNP seat of Moncreiff then trying to recontest the marginal Dickson.

    It’s a risky prospect for Dutton because:

    1. If Dutton falls at the hurdle in Moncreiff as he did when he tried to parachute in the seat of McPherson in 2010 election then he can pretty much rule out any chance of retaining Dickson at the next election.

    2. Scott Morrison wouldn’t support it because he needs every seat he can hold on to for the narrow chances of trying to cling on to the Prime Minstership at the next election. He knows Dutton not recontesting Dickson all but hands the seat to Labor.

    https://www.google.com/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/10860838

  2. Its been confirmed in media outlets Peter Dutton will be recontesting Dickson. It’s also official Steve Ciobo has announced he will be retiring at the next election. He also confirmed Christopher Pyne will be departing as well. It does look like their jumping off a sinking ship no matter how hard Dennis Shanahan and Newscorpse try to convince us otherwise.

    Who ever will contest Moncrieff for the Liberals will win it. I expect a swing will go away from them from the statewide swing and the because long-term incumbent is not recontesting but it won’t be anything close to losing the seat.

    Libs retain.

  3. Agree with you Nightwatchman, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Dutton attempt to jump ship to this seat, but then the LNP are just conceding Dickson to Labor in an election where they still need to win seats

  4. How can anything be a safe seat for Liberals? Worst government in history. What stupid person would vote for them? Name one good thing they have done.

    Look at all the crap they produced. Lies, deceit and deficit. I would be very surprised if they retained their seat. If people vote for them I would very surprised. Robodebt actually drove people to suicide, didn’t recoup much money. False debts raised. Targeted whisleblowers, census fail, paladin, no commitment in tackling climate change, franking credit BS, blame Labor, citizenship scandals, don’t cooperate with the AFP, killed off the Murray Darling, gave 39 mill to Murdoch for no reason, au pair crap, 26 times voted against a royal commission on banks, spending so much on election advertising. Cuts to major infrastructure.

  5. Like all “safe seats” absolutely nothing gets any attention in the electorate. Governments only give money to knife edge electorates. We would be much better off to vote these self serving Liberals OUT and put anyone in but them,and we might see something done worthwhile to our suffering overcrowded City.

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