McMahon – Australia 2019

ALP 12.1%

Incumbent MP
Chris Bowen, since 2010. Previously Member for Prospect 2004-2010.

Geography
Western Sydney. McMahon covers a central part of Western Sydney, covering parts of a number of local government areas. It covers parts of Holroyd, Fairfield, Penrith, Blacktown, Bankstown and Parramatta councils. The seat covers the suburb of Fairfield itself as well as the suburbs of Smithfield, Wetherill Park, Greystanes, Pemulwuy, Erskine Park, Guildford, Carramar and St Clair, and parts of Merrylands.

History
McMahon was created at the 2010 election, but was effectively a new name for the seat of Prospect, and covered most of the same territory.

The original seat of Prospect was first created for the 1969 election, and has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1969 by the ALP’s Dick Klugman. Klugman held the seat for 21 years, retiring in 1990.

He was succeeded by Janice Crosio, who had held a local state seat for the ALP since 1981, and had served as a minister for the last four years of the NSW state Labor government, from 1984 to 1988.

Crosio’s move to federal politics saw her serve as a Parliamentary Secretary from 1992 until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. Crosio held the seat until the 2004 election.

At the 2004 election, the seat was won by former Mayor of Fairfield, Chris Bowen. Bowen quickly rose to the Labor frontbench and was appointed Assistant Treasurer in the first Rudd ministry after the 2007 election. He was promoted to Cabinet in 2009.

Bowen was quickly promoted through the ranks, serving in the portfolios of Immigration and Higher Education. He resigned from the ministry in March 2013 after his participation in a campaign to encourage Kevin Rudd to challenge for the Labor leadership. He returned to cabinet as Treasurer when Kevin Rudd returned to the leadership, and has served as Shadow Treasurer since the 2013 election.

Candidates

Assessment
McMahon is a safe Labor seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Bowen Labor 45,97953.4+4.4
George Bilic Liberal 25,85530.1-10.7
Milan MaksimovicChristian Democratic Party6,1987.2+4.4
Astrid O’Neill Greens 4,6655.4+2.4
Victor WatersonAustralia First1,7972.1+2.1
Fadhel ShamashaIndependent1,5441.8+1.8
Informal9,4419.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Bowen Labor 53,44262.1+7.5
George Bilic Liberal 32,59637.9-7.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places at the eastern end of the electorate have been split between north-east (those in Cumberland council area) and south-east (those in Fairfield and Bankstown council areas).

The reminder have been grouped as “west”. Most of these booths are in the Penrith area, along with solitary booths in the Blacktown council area, across the border in the Liverpool council area, and a sole booth in the western end of the Fairfield council area.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.5% in the west to 72.2% in the south-east.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East57.325,80530.0
West56.517,03319.8
South-East72.216,61419.3
Other votes61.010,78912.5
Pre-poll66.315,79718.4

Two-party-preferred votes in McMahon at the 2016 federal election

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8 COMMENTS

  1. Bowen will get a real shock when everyone finally realises that this policy is not a “tax grab”, but an expropriation of property, which is unconstitutional as being in breach of s.51(xxxi) which provides for acquisition of property on “just terms”.

    This would also be the case if Labor decided to “retain” employee PAYG tax refunds owed, where the PAYG tax has been assessed to be overpaid.

  2. Company tax is a tax on company profits, not a tax withheld on behalf of individual shareholders. The comparison with PAYG is ludicrously stupid.

  3. easy way to evaluate the change is look what happened prior to 2001…. the money left over from franking credits was company tax and available to the government

  4. Mick
    It’d be easy to draw that conclusion, however the ATO “tax net ” is not that reliable, effective or comprehensive. People are infinitely more resourceful. When laws are fair, MORE tax is collected ,the reverse is true also. It is known as “the virtuous circle” The Abbott govt “debt levy” that Bowen insanely proposes to re-introduce was a total, & spectacular failure, & wonderful example of this. The govt actually collected LESS tax from the highest & top rate, tax payers when it raised the rate from 47% to 49% !!.THAT is an historical fact.

    Another example . These mongrel thieves would expect to trouser my SMSF cash refund of about $8000 PA. i Solemnly vow they will never see one cent !!. 2 things will happen WD junior will join my fund, & the unused franking credits will be applied to his contribution superannuation tax. secondly i will accelerate my plans to transfer about 400k to him personally over the next 3 years. Thus the $8000 will disappear like a chimera !!.

    So who loses ? Instead of my available $500k being invested in Australian companies that employ our people, & create national wealth etc, my son will enter the housing market 10 years earlier, which will produce little in the way of national wealth, employment etc. WD Junior will also go from paying around $50k a year in taxes, to less than $10k.
    Is this a good deal for the commonwealth ??. I’d have thought not

    I also invite you to read what i posted on the Rankin thread about that fool Jim Chalmers the shadow finance minister. These people are fools

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