McMahon – Australia 2019

ALP 12.1%

Incumbent MP
Chris Bowen, since 2010. Previously Member for Prospect 2004-2010.

Geography
Western Sydney. McMahon covers a central part of Western Sydney, covering parts of a number of local government areas. It covers parts of Holroyd, Fairfield, Penrith, Blacktown, Bankstown and Parramatta councils. The seat covers the suburb of Fairfield itself as well as the suburbs of Smithfield, Wetherill Park, Greystanes, Pemulwuy, Erskine Park, Guildford, Carramar and St Clair, and parts of Merrylands.

History
McMahon was created at the 2010 election, but was effectively a new name for the seat of Prospect, and covered most of the same territory.

The original seat of Prospect was first created for the 1969 election, and has always been held by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1969 by the ALP’s Dick Klugman. Klugman held the seat for 21 years, retiring in 1990.

He was succeeded by Janice Crosio, who had held a local state seat for the ALP since 1981, and had served as a minister for the last four years of the NSW state Labor government, from 1984 to 1988.

Crosio’s move to federal politics saw her serve as a Parliamentary Secretary from 1992 until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. Crosio held the seat until the 2004 election.

At the 2004 election, the seat was won by former Mayor of Fairfield, Chris Bowen. Bowen quickly rose to the Labor frontbench and was appointed Assistant Treasurer in the first Rudd ministry after the 2007 election. He was promoted to Cabinet in 2009.

Bowen was quickly promoted through the ranks, serving in the portfolios of Immigration and Higher Education. He resigned from the ministry in March 2013 after his participation in a campaign to encourage Kevin Rudd to challenge for the Labor leadership. He returned to cabinet as Treasurer when Kevin Rudd returned to the leadership, and has served as Shadow Treasurer since the 2013 election.

Candidates

  • Meg Libby Wrightson (United Australia)
  • Damian Commane (One Nation)
  • Zeeshan Philip Francis (Christian Democratic Party)
  • Chris Bowen (Labor)
  • Astrid O’Neill (Greens)
  • Vivek Singha (Liberal)

Assessment
McMahon is a safe Labor seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Bowen Labor 45,97953.4+4.4
George Bilic Liberal 25,85530.1-10.7
Milan MaksimovicChristian Democratic Party6,1987.2+4.4
Astrid O’Neill Greens 4,6655.4+2.4
Victor WatersonAustralia First1,7972.1+2.1
Fadhel ShamashaIndependent1,5441.8+1.8
Informal9,4419.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Bowen Labor 53,44262.1+7.5
George Bilic Liberal 32,59637.9-7.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places at the eastern end of the electorate have been split between north-east (those in Cumberland council area) and south-east (those in Fairfield and Bankstown council areas).

The reminder have been grouped as “west”. Most of these booths are in the Penrith area, along with solitary booths in the Blacktown council area, across the border in the Liverpool council area, and a sole booth in the western end of the Fairfield council area.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.5% in the west to 72.2% in the south-east.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East57.325,80530.0
West56.517,03319.8
South-East72.216,61419.3
Other votes61.010,78912.5
Pre-poll66.315,79718.4

Two-party-preferred votes in McMahon at the 2016 federal election

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18 COMMENTS

  1. Bowen will get a real shock when everyone finally realises that this policy is not a “tax grab”, but an expropriation of property, which is unconstitutional as being in breach of s.51(xxxi) which provides for acquisition of property on “just terms”.

    This would also be the case if Labor decided to “retain” employee PAYG tax refunds owed, where the PAYG tax has been assessed to be overpaid.

  2. Company tax is a tax on company profits, not a tax withheld on behalf of individual shareholders. The comparison with PAYG is ludicrously stupid.

  3. easy way to evaluate the change is look what happened prior to 2001…. the money left over from franking credits was company tax and available to the government

  4. Mick
    It’d be easy to draw that conclusion, however the ATO “tax net ” is not that reliable, effective or comprehensive. People are infinitely more resourceful. When laws are fair, MORE tax is collected ,the reverse is true also. It is known as “the virtuous circle” The Abbott govt “debt levy” that Bowen insanely proposes to re-introduce was a total, & spectacular failure, & wonderful example of this. The govt actually collected LESS tax from the highest & top rate, tax payers when it raised the rate from 47% to 49% !!.THAT is an historical fact.

    Another example . These mongrel thieves would expect to trouser my SMSF cash refund of about $8000 PA. i Solemnly vow they will never see one cent !!. 2 things will happen WD junior will join my fund, & the unused franking credits will be applied to his contribution superannuation tax. secondly i will accelerate my plans to transfer about 400k to him personally over the next 3 years. Thus the $8000 will disappear like a chimera !!.

    So who loses ? Instead of my available $500k being invested in Australian companies that employ our people, & create national wealth etc, my son will enter the housing market 10 years earlier, which will produce little in the way of national wealth, employment etc. WD Junior will also go from paying around $50k a year in taxes, to less than $10k.
    Is this a good deal for the commonwealth ??. I’d have thought not

    I also invite you to read what i posted on the Rankin thread about that fool Jim Chalmers the shadow finance minister. These people are fools

  5. What a creep of a man he is. Thinks he’s smart at maybe coming treasurer. He will run the country into a lot of debt which we can’t afford. Don’t agree with them taking our franking credits. We
    are self funded retirees. They’ll send people broke. We saved that money so we wouldn’t have to
    draw a pension. I’m a liberal supporter.

  6. Where is Bowen ??. Protective custody !!??. Never seen a LOWER profile shadow Treasurer!!!. Time to award my prizes for the greatest gift to the other side. Bowen wins for Labor by a mile !!. In the interests of fairness i award that indescribable moron Simon Birmingham for the LIBS !!. definite vote changers the two of them

  7. He was on Q&A last Monday, on 730 somewhat regularly including last night and has been with Shorten on the campaign trail.

  8. So next week when the RBA cuts rates because our economy is already in the toilet, I’ll be sure to visit this thread for some expert advice on what the next Treasurer should do. Even if they don’t cut rates, the Board minutes will be all doom and gloom, and this will be the nail in the coffin for our flash-bang marketing executive PM, the “superior” steward of our economy. P-lease.

    I’m sure we’ll find a way to link the economic data to the federal opposition and not the current government, never mind the bloke who was Treasurer for the bulk of the last six years who wants to be elected as PM.

  9. there are two types of age pension…. those paid formally and those paid via franking tax credits
    $8k per year over 10 years equates to $80k only…. much less than $400k

  10. Oh, and I’m sure Bill Shorten will be such an improvement…

    He’s so desperate, he’s literally throwing billions of dollars around. Howard did the same, but it’s not 2007. More to the point, that’s MY taxpayers dollars. I’d appreciate a bit of bloody care with them please. Economic policy is going to be so woefully executed or ignored, it’ll be Whitlam 2.0 all over again.

  11. Bowen was the worst Immigration Minister in history and will likely soon become an even worse Treasurer than Wayne Swan!

  12. Mick look at my figures again they are correct. Better still, wait for the policy implementation, & watch what it does to economy.

    Sherrif
    This his 2nd crack at the job. (Treasurer) !!. This time he’ll really make history. The country will never be the same once he’s done. Promise you !!

    W of S
    If only it was limited to that amount of damage !!. The one hope is that the senate prevent BS, & Co from doing what they promise

  13. Geez
    What’s happening !!?? Bowen finally said some thing i AGREE WITH !! WTF!!!. “Don’t worry about the value of your house” . Guest had to happen….. some time !!!

  14. Bowen can’t lose because this electorate is full of voters who vote Labor blindly. Wouldn’t have the slightest idea what they are voting for. That’s why he’s a ghost. Why campaign when he’ll never lose. Even in 2013 when Labor were almost wiped out, he survived easily.

    Says something about the political intelligence of the voters in these suburbs. Dumb as a door knob most of them.

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