Cowan – Australia 2019

ALP 0.7%

Incumbent MP
Anne Aly, since 2013.

Geography
Cowan covers parts of the northern suburbs of Perth. These include the suburbs of Ballajura, Marangaroo, Girrawheen, Greenwood, Wanneroo, Beechboro and Bennett Springs.

History
The seat was first created in 1984, and was first won by Carolyn Jakobsen of the ALP. Jakobsen held the seat until she was defeated by Richard Evans of the Liberal Party in 1993.

Evans was himself defeated in 1998 by wheelchair-bound Vietnam veteran and former state minister Graham Edwards, standing for the ALP. Edwards was a popular local member and held the seat until he retired at the 2007 election. The Liberals took the opportunity to win the seat off the ALP. Cowan was one of only two seats the Liberals gained in 2007.

The Liberal Party’s Luke Simpkins won the seat in 2007 after running for the first time in 2004, and was re-elected twice in 2010 and 2013, increasing his margin every time. Simpkins built up a substantial margin over nine years, but the redistribution before the 2016 election sliced his margin by 3%, and a further 5.2% swing to Labor saw him lose to Labor candidate Anne Aly.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Cowan is a very marginal seat. Aly will hope to benefit from a new personal vote which may give her a boost, but the seat is still definitely in play.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Luke Simpkins Liberal 34,40542.2-4.4
Anne Aly Labor 33,96641.7+6.9
Sheridan Young Greens 6,1937.6-0.2
Rex HostAustralian Christians2,6803.3+0.9
Jamie ChesterShooters, Fishers and Farmers2,2882.8+2.8
Neil HamiltonLiberal Democrats1,0961.3+1.3
Steve VenessMature Australia8681.1+1.1
Informal4,7125.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Anne Aly Labor 41,30150.7+5.2
Luke Simpkins Liberal 40,19549.3-5.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas. Polling places in Swan council area have been grouped as south-east. Polling places in Wanneroo council area have been split between north-west and south-west, with south-west also including those in Joondalup council area.

The ALP won a slim 50.1% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-west, and a large 59.2% majority in the south-east. The Liberal Party polled 53.1% in the north-west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-West50.130,11036.9
South-East59.216,33520.0
North-West46.914,30317.6
Other votes48.612,37115.2
Pre-poll45.68,37710.3

Two-party-preferred votes in Cowan at the 2016 federal election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.