Bundamba by-election, 2020

Cause of by-election
Longstanding Labor MP Jo-Ann Miller resigned from parliament in February 2020.

MarginALP 21.6%

Geography
South-East Queensland. Bundamba covers the eastern Ipswich suburbs of Goodna, Redbank, Blackstone, Ebbw Vale, Riverview, Collingwood Park, Bellbird Park, Redbank Plains, Brookwater, Springfield Lakes and parts of Bundamba and Springfield. The seat covers the eastern parts of Ipswich local government area.

History
The seat of Bundamba existed from 1873 to 1912. The current seat was created in 1992, and has been held by the ALP since then.

Bob Gibbs won the seat for the ALP in 1992. Gibbs had served as member for Wolston since 1977, and moved to Bundamba when his former seat was abolished.

Gibbs served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1996. He again served as a minister in the Beattie government from 1998 until his resignation from Parliament in 1999.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Jo-Ann Miller at a 2000 by-election. She held the seat for the next twenty years, winning re-election seven times.

Candidates

Assessment
One Nation chose not to run in this seat in 2017 due to the incumbent MP but are running in this by-election. It seems most likely that Labor will hold on in a typically safe seat, particularly since the short time-frame will make it hard for One Nation to mount a campaign, but they are a wildcard and could poll well.

2017 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jo-Ann Miller Labor 13,88353.3-11.8
Patrick Herbert Liberal National 3,94915.2-5.1
Michelle Duncan Greens 2,84210.9+3.0
Patricia PetersenIndependent2,59910.0+10.0
Shan-Ju LinIndependent1,4135.4+5.4
Trevor JuddIndependent1,3385.1+5.1
Informal2,3378.2

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jo-Ann Miller Labor 18,62171.6-4.3
Patrick Herbert Liberal National 7,40328.5+4.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bundamba have been divided into three areas: central, south-east and west. The south-east makes up a majority of the ordinary election day vote.

The ALP won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 68.6% in the west to 74.4% in the south-east.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.5% in the centre to 19% in the south-east. Patricia Petersen came fourth, with a vote ranging from 9.2% in the west to 13.2% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN prim %Petersen prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East19.010.574.410,83641.6
Central8.513.273.43,88814.9
West18.49.268.63,04811.7
Other votes14.77.567.94,01815.4
Pre-poll17.08.568.24,23416.3

Election results in Bundamba at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Greens primary votes and primary votes for independent candidate Patricia Petersen.