11:31pm – I’m signing off for the night. I’ll come back tomorrow to post wrap-ups of the results in South Australia and Tasmania tomorrow. You can read tonight’s commentary, as well as maps showing the result in South Australia, it’s available over the fold.
11:00pm – The ABC has now called every seat in South Australia, producing a result of 25 Labor, 18 Liberal and 4 independents. Looking at the results, however, it appears a bit early to call the seat of Bright, where the ALP is leading by 44 votes on the two-party preferred vote. The Liberal Party has gained four seats: Chaffey from Nationals MP and minister Karlene Maywald and the seats of Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood. The ALP has managed to hold on to four (five if you include Bright) seats that are safer than Morialta and Adelaide, where the ALP suffered swings of 12% and 15.2% respectively. Independents Geoff Brock, Kris Hanna and Bob Such have all won re-election, while in Mount Gambier independent candidate Don Pegler looks set to retain the seat previously held by retiring independent MP Rory McEwen. The following maps show the results across the state. The four Liberal gains are coloured in a darker blue then the 14 seats the party retained. Bright remains coloured white.
10:27pm – Almost 30% counted for the SA Legislative Council, and the ABC still predicts 4-4-GRN-FF-D4D. If you follow the preference count, Dignity for Disabled only just squeeze ahead of fifth Labor and fifth Liberal with a strong preference flow. At the last point, the Fair Land Tax Party preferences push Dignity for Disabled ahead of the ALP, and then they overtake the Liberal Party on ALP preferences.
10:14pm – The Tasmanian exit poll was actually remarkably accurate. Remember that it predicted 9 Labor, 9 Liberal, 4 Greens and 3 undecided. As it stands, we are in exactly that position, and the three undecided seats are going down to the same parties the poll predicted: Braddon is Libs vs Greens, Denison is Libs vs Greens vs Wilkie, Franklin is ALP vs Greens. As I see it, the most likely result will be Libs winning in Braddon, Greens in Denison and ALP in Franklin, producing a result of 10-10-5. Embrace the chaos!
10:08pm – Focus on Franklin. The Liberals have won two seats for Will Hodgman and either Jacquie Petrusma or Tony Mulder. The ALP and Greens have both won a single seat and are in competition for the last seat. I tend to think David O’Byrne will win the seat. He has 0.46 quota in his own right, whereas almost the entire Greens vote has been locked up with Nick McKim.
9:52pm – Here’s a theory – it is in the interests of the ALP and Liberal Party to prove how unstable and unwise it is to elect minority parliaments. They could easily reach an agreement with the Greens that will provide stability, but a situation where a party governs without the numbers in the Assembly proves their point that minority governments are unstable. Ironically this would see major parties rewarded for acting recklessly with power. “Either give us a majority, or we’ll really screw things up”.
9:45pm – Let’s clear something up about the Tasmanian result. No-one has won. It doesn’t matter who wins the most seats, or the most votes. Neither major party managed to get over 40% of the vote, and more than one in five voters have gone to the Greens. The only sensible way that the Tasmanian voters’ wishes could be respected would be through a coalition of two of the three parties. The idea that a party could have a claim to govern on 39% of the vote is completely ridiculous.
9:42pm – With 12.7% counted for the South Australian Legislative Council, the ABC is projecting 4 Labor, 4 Liberals, 1 Greens, 1 Family First and 1 for Dignity for the Disabled. The Dignity for the Disabled seat would go to their #2 candidate Kelly Vincent, due to the death of their lead candidate Dr Paul Collier earlier in the week.
9:40pm – Focus on Braddon – The Liberal Party are on 2.69 quotas, the ALP on 2.45 and the Greens on 0.82. You would have to think that in the north-west ALP voters would tend to favour the Liberals over the Greens. In addition, the third Labor candidate at the moment is sitting MP Brett Whiteley, who should attract strong Labor preferences.
9:24pm – Focus on Bass – the two Liberal seats look set to go to former federal MP Michael Ferguson and sitting state MP Peter Gutwein, and Kim Booth will be re-elected in the sole Greens seat. On the Labor side Michelle O’Byrne will safely win re-election but the contest for the second Labor seat is close between Brian Wightman, Scott McLean and Brant Webb.
9:20pm – SA crossbench results – Geoff Brock is on 44% of the primary vote in Frome and set to retain the seat. Meanwhile Nationals minister Karlene Maywald looks set to lose in Chaffey. Kris Hanna in Mitchell has managed to stay ahead of the Liberals on primary vote, but we’re yet to see if this will be enough to put him over the ALP on preferences. In Mount Gambier the Liberal Party is leading over new independent candidate Don Pegler 41-37 with no information on preferences.
9:16pm – More about Lyons – it’s clearly going to be a result of 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens, but the specific candidates are not that clear. Tim Morris will clearly retain the sole Greens seat. On the ALP side, Michael Polley is on 0.78 quotas, Rebecca White on 0.62 and sitting MP David Llewellyn on 0.61, with another 0.57 quotas for the other three Labor candidate. On the Liberal side, former leader Rene Hidding is on 0.70 quotas, Mark Shelton on 0.5, with Jane Howlett on 0.42 and James Playstead on 0.38.
8:53pm – There are quite a few sitting MPs staring at defeat from their own party colleagues. In Denison Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturges look set to lose their seats, with the ALP’s Scott Bacon gaining a seat. In nearby Franklin David O’Byrne is coming second out of the ALP candidates, beating sitting MPs Daniel Hulme and Ross Butler. In Braddon, sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley has been overtaken by new candidate Adam Brooks, and will be in a fierce race with the Greens for the final seat. New Labor candidate Rebecca White has overtaken sitting MP David Llewellyn in Lyons, although there is a very small gap between them, and it will be a close count.
8:48pm – In Mitchell, with 55% counted, Hanna is clearly outpolling the Liberals by 2.5%, and the first two booths have shown a two-candidate preferred figure for Hanna vs. ALP of 50.7%.
8:42pm – Antony Green on Twitter has commented that the ALP’s two-party preferred vote in South Australia is about 48.5%. Even still, they are on track for a majority. So much for South Australia’s ridiculous process of drawing boundaries to ensure a ‘fair’ result. No fairness in single-member constituencies.
8:38pm – The Greens & Wilkie are both picking up again in Denison. Greens on 1.57 and Wilkie on 0.51.
8:29pm – Nick McKim has pushed Franklin into a new position as the strongest seat for the Greens, with 29% for the Greens. Almost all of that went to McKim himself. If that flows to the other Greens they could still win an extra seat there.
8:24pm – With 51% counted in Denison, the Greens have only gained 0.5%. That doesn’t sound right, although it’s possible the general statewide Greens swing was swallowed up by Andrew Wilkie, and you’d expect a lot of that to flow back. The ALP is on 2.30 quotas, with the Liberals on 1.68 and the Greens on 1.48, with Andrew Wilkie on 0.49. On those numbers you’d think whoever out of Helen Burnet or Andrew Wilkie comes out on top should defeat the second Liberal.
8:17pm – Mike Rann appears to have won a third term in South Australia. The ABC is predicting 25 seats with one in doubt. They have projected that the ALP has lost Morialta, Adelaide and Norwood, and have actually gained Davenport.
8:07pm – With 6.7% counted Kris Hanna is slightly outpolling the ALP on primary votes in Mitchell. The Liberals have jumped into first place and Hanna is currently in the top two.
8:01pm – A large increase in vote counted in Denison has seen the Greens fall into third place. They could still win two seats with Andrew Wilkie’s preferences.
7:40pm – With 2% counted statewide, the Greens are up 1.7% to 8.2% in South Australia. It’s still early, and it’s the wrong house, but that’s about what you need to get a Legislative Council quota. Meanwhile the Greens are up a whopping 7% in Tasmania to about 23% with 4% counted.
7:37pm – Also in Denison, Wilkie is on 0.66 quotas. This puts him in fourth place on primaries behind Cassy O’Connor, Matthew Groom and David Bartlett, beating other contenders such as Scott Bacon and Helen Burnet.
7:34pm – Almost 8% has been counted in Denison, and the Greens are still coming first on 32.6%, followed by the Liberals on 28.8% and Labor on 26.9%. Scott Bacon is clearly the second-ranking Labor candidate, and #2 Greens candidate Helen Burnet has a decent vote in her own right which she will need to win a second seat for the Greens.
7:32pm – It appears that in Light, one of the ALP’s most marginal seats, the ALP have actually gained a swing.
7:30pm – In Franklin, 2.7% has been counted. The Greens are coming second with the Liberals coming first, but the Greens vote is highly concentrated on Nick McKim, suggesting that many of these votes may scatter after McKim is elected.
7:22pm – Almost 6% counted in Bass, and it’s a similar position to Lyons, with it clearly heading for a 2-2-1 split. The Greens are just short of 1.5 quotas with ALP only just over 2 quotas.
7:21pm – Over 4% has been counted in Lyons and it looks pretty clearly on track for a 2-2-1 split, with the Greens on 1.25 quotas.
7:13pm – More votes have been counted at Franklin, and the Greens are topping the poll there too. With 1000 votes counted, Nick McKim is on 34%. Interestingly third Greens candidate Wendy Heatley is outpolling second candidate Adam Burling.
7:01pm – A very small number of votes counted in Denison have the Greens in first place and Wilkie polling over 10%, but these numbers are so small as to be meaningless.
6:58pm – The ABC TV feed has now been replaced with something else and according to Twitter the election feed will begin at 8pm. But my internet is playing up such that I’ll have to stick to Sky News.
6:36pm – Rationalist in comments has posted a link to the ABC TV coverage of the Tasmanian election. Thank god, because Tim Gartrell gets on my nerves on Sky News.
6:24pm – Sky News have Tim Gartrell waffling on about a poll, since there’s really nothing to say so far.
6:18pm – In Denison, the exit poll predicts 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green and the last seat a contest between Liberal, Greens and Wilkie.
6:17pm – Sky News poll predicts 2-2-1 in Bass. In Braddon 2-2 for majors with Libs v Greens for last seat.
6:15pm – Sky News is now reporting a Tasmanian exit poll, predicting 9 Labor, 9 Liberal, 4 Greens and 3 too close to call. Sky’s reporter says Andrew Wilkie is performing well in Denison. I assume that the three undecided seats are in Denison, Franklin and Braddon.
6:10pm – Sky News is reporting an exit poll in Labor’s nine most marginal seats in South Australia, with the Liberals winning 53-47 in those seats. That follows a South Australian Newspoll showing the Liberals leading 52-48.
6:02pm – I will be liveblogging this evening from Sydney. Times are AEDT, which is Sydney time and also Hobart time. Polls are closing in Tasmania now, followed by South Australia in half an hour.