Rockingham – WA 2021

ALP 23.6%

Incumbent MP
Mark McGowan, since 1996.

Geography
Southern coastal fringe of Perth. Rockingham covers the suburbs of Rockingham, Shoalwater, Safety Bay, Hillman and part of Cooloongup and Waikiki, in the north-western corner of the Rockingham council area.

Redistribution
Rockingham gained part of Waikiki from Baldivis. This increased the Labor margin from 23.4% to 23.6%.

History
The electorate of Rockingham has existed since 1974, and has always been a Labor seat.

Labor’s Mike Barnett won Rockingham in 1974. Barnett served as a shadow minister from 1977 until 1983, and as Speaker from 1986 until 1993. He retired in 1996.

Rockingham was won in 1996 by Labor’s Mark McGowan. McGowan has been re-elected in Rockingham five times. He joined the ministry after the 2005 election, and became Labor leader in 2012.

McGowan led Labor to the 2013 and 2017 elections, winning government in a landslide in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Rockingham is a safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Mark McGowan Labor 13,57661.6+5.261.6
Wendy Baumann Liberal 3,96518.0-14.517.7
James OmalleyOne Nation1,9158.7+8.78.6
James Mumme Greens 1,6057.3+1.27.2
Craig BuchananIndependent4332.0+2.02.4
Sylvia StonehouseAustralian Christians4131.9-0.21.9
Mark CharlesMicro Business1470.7+0.70.7
Informal 9984.3

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Mark McGowan Labor 16,17473.4+10.273.6
Wendy Baumann Liberal 5,86926.6-10.226.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 72.3% in the south to 78.7% in the east.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South72.35,79325.5
Central76.14,18118.4
East78.72,50011.0
Pre-poll71.96,05126.6
Other votes70.64,18518.4

Two-party-preferred votes in Rockingham at the 2017 WA state election

6 COMMENTS

  1. Could it be possible that we see a booth here (namely the Bungaree booth) breach a TPP of >90%?

    If McGowan’s unprecedented popularity sticks anywhere surely it will be in his own seat.

  2. Third safest seat in the state after the 2017 election, and I think it will be the safest seat after this election.

    I think McGowan will get 70%+ of the first preference vote. It will probably be a race between one of the polling booths here or in Collie as to which one has the highest 2PP vote in this election.

  3. The margin here will be one for the record books. I wonder if McGowan can join the >80% 2PP club (a very rare result from my search).

  4. If the Libs dip that low then I could very well see a possibility of this being an ALP vs GRN contest but Mcgowan still easily wins possibly 80+ TPP

    You have to remember however uniform swings don’t tend to translate in safe seats because considering this is already a very safe seat a 10% swing statewide to the Libs is unlikely to translate to a 10% swing here.

    100% is the maximum possible percentage of votes and it’s like how Washington DC in the US doesn’t swing wildly. It is because it is solidly safe and a double digit swing towards the Democrats countrywide would mean getting over 100% of the vote which isn’t possible.

    So for that reason I believe the swings won’t be as big in the ALP safe seats than the marginal seats and the coalition held seats

  5. Daniel

    I recall at the Victorian State election in 2018 that the ABC momentarily projected Thomastown to have a 104% Labor margin when the best booth for the Liberals had a sizeable swing to Labor. The final result was 77% to Labor.

    Perhaps we’ll see something similar here.

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