This margin is very small for a rural seat like this, you’d think this would be one of the safest Liberal seats in the state. While I reckon Polwarth is more likely to flip than this seat due to the population growth in the Eastern part of the seat, it’ll be interesting to see how this seat performs in the election. Since 2014, there’s been almost a 10% drop in the 2PP for the Liberals. Britnell very well may have built up a local profile since Napthine’s retirement, but she did suffer an 8% swing against her in 2018. There were also 2 independent challengers in 2018 who made up over a quarter of the vote but didn’t make the 2CP, interesting to see where those votes flow back to.