Glen Waverley – Victoria 2022

There are many many very good reasons to oppose the SRL Nicholas.

– Expensive, I mean really expensive
– Questionable utility, particularly in it current form (not enough stations for a start)
– Takes money away from other PT projects
– Service upgrades (trunk routes should be 6tp off peak, 10tph peak minimum)
– Bus service increases
– Other infrastructure upgrades
– MM2
– Bypass line for VLine Freight Pakenham – Hughesdale
– Somerton connection
– Geelong electrification, poss Bendigo & Ballarat (or parts thereof)
– Link Werribee to RRR and electrify from there to Sunshine
– Remove any last sections of single track on the metro network

All this without recognising that the Vic Government, indeed all Australian Governments, will have to tighten their belts – government spending + inflation doesn’t work.

It is possible to be very PT positive, indeed very rail positive, and think the SRL is a complete waste of resources.

Whether it is an electoral positive or negative is another matter

They’re all valid points.

It’s just an odd political decision for the Liberal Party to make an announcement that is most likely to have support in areas where Labor enjoy 15-20% Margins (eg. The western suburbs who may think “Why do the eastern suburbs get everything? Yeah scrap it we want our infrastructure”), but put off voters in the very seats they really need to win to at least come close to government or set themselves up for 2026.

The fact that the SRL links Monash & Deakin universities by rail to major activity hubs and to 6 other train lines will be a huge vote winner in itself because part of the reason a lot of people move to areas like Glen Waverley and Box Hill is for their proximity to good education.

I doubt that the SRL is going to be a “winner” for anyone who is:

– Having their houses tunnelled under yet is being refused compensation by the government
– Having their houses forcibly acquired
– Having to live with nearly a decade or more of noise works
– Dealing with the rising methane that was found to be an issue in hearings with Whitehorse Council, posing a significant health risk.

Not to mention those that are losing native parklands in Heatherton, parklands that Dan Andrews said wouldn’t be affected.

The Andrews government is stale and arrogant, and those traits have manifested themselves within the SRL hearings and dealings.

You may be right Trent, but I think we are in the midst of the same realignment underway in most of the Western world. To me therefore, going after the seats in the west of Melbourne, our red wall if you will, and the outer east/south east is the way forward for the Libs. Those 15-20% margins are doable over 2 elections, but it might take a better politician than Matthew Guy (I am not setting a high bar there) to do it.

The bayside/eastern suburbs seats are I think gone to the Greens/Teals and the ALP medium term whatever the Libs do, so they might as well roll with the changes.

One issue – the party is structurally geared towards the seats they are struggling with and away from seats they are needing to win, similar to the UK Tories and the Red Wall seats.

@ Mark/Mostly Labor voter/Trent
While i agree with the SRL in principal i do feel there some other projects that have been mentioned such as MM2, Duplication of single track rail, Somerton link, Clyde extension, Baxter electrification, tram extension such as 67 to Carnegie station, Route 3 to East Malvern station and infill rail station at Campbellfield that ought not to forgotten.
Mark, i am with you about the Heatherton stabling i am vehemently opposed to it due it being in a Green Wedge. I am sure there are some brownfields that could be found instead. However, i dont feel why people should be compensated if there is a tunnel under their property for example the Sydney Metro North West goes under peoples homes in the Hills District, same with Metro tunnel in Parkville etc.

Regarding Realignment of left/right i think as Ben’s podcast yesterday stated we should not fall into Ecological fallacy. For example in the US the Republicans have not made any headway into Urban Working Class in areas such as The Bronx, South side of Chicago, South Central LA etc. Same in the UK, the Tories have not made any headway in poor areas of Inner London such as Tower Hamlets. We also need to separate short term shocks from long term trends. I agree the lockdowns are causing a backlash against Labor in Victoria but we did not see the same in seats such as Blaxland, Rankin, Watson, Chifley, Oxley, Southern parts of Greenway and McMahon which are working class urban seats. Sometimes these shocks disappear at the following election for example the Backlash over Scoresby Tolls, CFA issue and SkyRail at the following election. I agree in Australia it seems Resources seats are moving away from Labor due to climate change policies. We also need to remember that High income Public Servants in ACT have vote solidly Labor for sometime.

@Mostly Labor voter, I do agree about that realignment and this strategy by Guy could be to accelerate that.

For all I know, they have internal polling that says Glen Waverley, Box Hill and Ashwood are pretty much written off for them, but this will help accelerate large swings towards them in Melton, Werribee and Narre Warren.

Realistically the Liberals have zero chance of actually winning in 2022, so they may have decided that some inner-middle southeast furniture isn’t worth saving at the expense of chipping away at creating enough winnable seats elsewhere for 2026.

In other words, if faced with a choice between winning/saving more of the marginal seats in 2022 but not really cutting into the margins of Labor’s safe seats for 2026; or not really making any progress on their seat count this year but having another 10 currently “safe” Labor seats in the outer west & southeast join the list of marginals for 2026, they may be aiming for the latter.

Or maybe I’m just giving a strategically deficient opposition too much credit.. 🙂

I do agree that if Australia did not vote based on their economic stances and became more like the USA, many LNP heartlands would be more friendlier to the left which conversely is similar to many ALP heartlands would be more friendlier to the right.
I would say the LNP is a hybrid of Democrats (Some Liberals, Moderate and Conservative factions) and Republicans (almost all factions) for policy and rhetoric (except for guns which the LNP is more left than Democrats on), and Labor Party is more on the Left half of the Democrats (Liberals and Progressive factions)

@ Marh, Good points raised what i am seeing in the USA is a breakdown of the working class by race etc. For example White Working Class in Coal mining and Mid West being right-wing while the same cannot be said of the inner city working class of people of colour in the Bronx etc. Same can be said in the UK between White working class in Northern England (Red/Wall) moving to the right but this is not the same for example the working class Bangladeshi community in places such as Brick Lane etc so maybe race/geography is dividing the working class.

My personal take in examining future trends to the LNP is looking at metrics like university attainment, vehicle registration, % attending non-government education & other factors often overlooked here.

As for ethnicity, the LNP will definitely focus on gaining traction within Anglo-Celtic/European working & middle class voters. For non-Europeans, this is probably going to be a harder challenge. I can envisage the Liberals doing better with the Middle Eastern vote considering their tendency at the recent election to favour the various libertarian parties, a direction the LNP will probably be going down regardless of what the general public thinks. With the Asian vote, this is harder to grasp as they lean socially conservative but are more white collar (perhaps with the exception of SE Asians) & often have yet to assimilate. Specifically looking at East Asians, I believe that 2022 was a low water mark for the LNP, however that doesn’t mean that Bennelong, Reid or Chisholm will be Liberal seats come 2025, nor does it mean that they will hold Glen Waverley. There’s also a whole bunch of other ethnic groups which is probably a topic for another day.

Touching on foreign elections, one minority group which conservatives have managed to gain traction with are Hispanics in the U.S, especially in south Texas where Republicans are now able to win down-ballot races with 5-10% margins & where Trump got ~40% swings to him. I will have to say that Hispanics, especially assimilated Mexicans in Texas as well as Cubans/Puerto Ricans in Florida are much closer to white Americans culturally than blacks, Native Americans, Asians & Jews, but the point still stands.

I think LNP is slowly gaining traction to the Muslim and African vote possible due to the focus of shifting racism towards Asians ,many are opposed to lockdowns and vaccines and Muslim and Black are becoming more of tradies and small business owners. Lebanese in Sydney are an example of gradually shifting to vote for the Libs

I don’t think assimilated Asians tend to vote more conservative than their less assimilated peers. Factors include:
– They are more educated and white collar
– More socially mobile and chilled with English pricincy at it even better then Anglos
– Most rebelled against their kconservative Asian parenting
– Support more volunteering

Assimilation Asians (assuming 1.75+ generation) tend to support LGBT rights, Climate action and racial justice

Of the people I know who are what you might call SJWs, most of them are second-generation Asian women.

1.75 generation Asians are culturally similar to the second generation Asians. I do agree that 1.75+ Asian Men are more apolitical (I am a 2nd generation Asian myself). Ironically, Mainland Chinese are more conservative (even compared to a non-PRC Asian from the same generation) in their values despite them being more athiest. I think one factor is due to PRC immigrants lacking a sense of individualism and tending to support authoritarian policies partly attributed to PRC politics. After all Mainland China had very minimal western influence compared to their other Asian counterparts since they were never colonized (besides a few ports) or been a US ally

All great points raised above especially comparing various ethnic/cultural groups. The commentary above regarding Hispanics is an interesting one. It is very true that South Texas and Florida behaved interestingly in 2020 presidential election. It is important to remember that Hispanics are not a racial or ethnic group rather a linguistic identity. There are Asian Hispanics such as Japanese Peruvians as well. Specifically, for Florida it was said many Cubans for instance resent being categorised as people of colour and consider themselves to be White and has been decribed above Native Americans, Jews etc will be a permanent cultural minority unlike White Hispanics who many loose their language after 3 generations etc and will be like other European Americans. I am thinking Christian Lebanese for example maybe more likely to vote for the Libs etc than their Muslim counterparts as there cultural difference between them and the Anglo-Celtic Majority is likely to be much less.

In terms of the working class i also think we need to look into the sector of the economy they work in for example those in pink collar jobs, care economy, baggage handlers etc are less likely into be attracted to Trump style Nationalism etc as they don’t work in trade exposed industries and more urbanised than miners, loggers etc. Although lockdowns/vaccine mandates would have affected these people in 2022 election (causing them to vote for “freedom parties” but not Libs”). There maybe a greater % of ethnic minorities in these industries. In terms of the culture wars etc i dont know if support for the Monarchy, Australia Day and the current flag for these reason will win votes in Lakemba, Mirabooka, Inala, St Albans and Dandenong as the % Anglo-Celtic Australians will be quite low.

The government has been going hard on the SRL in parliament this week. Almost every minister’s statement has been on it. Even the Treasurer, Health Minister, and Environment Minister made statements on it (respectively, on how it would boost the economy, how it would improve access to hospitals, and how it would reduce emissions).

The new line of attack that they’re employing in response to the opposition’s announcement is to suggest that the opposition can only focus on one thing at a time, while the government is capable of delivering on both healthcare and public transport.

Meanwhile, every question from the opposition is the same as it has been for the past year – presenting to the Health Minister the case of a constituent who has complained of inadequate healthcare.

Seems to be almost no talk of this seat. I don’t see the Liberals retaining it. There is a perfect storm against them here with the Liberals promising to shelve the SRL (which would run right through this electorate), an antivax candidate/MP in an area with an older population and large East Asian community, both groups that take Covid very seriously and for whom an anti vax candidate wouldn’t go down well. No to mention the Federal swings in Chisholm and Deakin and the general feeling that Labor will do well in the east.

Glen Waverley is the one marginal seat that I have driven through lately where Labor seem to be winning the corflute wars. Neil Angus has moved his electorate office from Forest Hill – presumably to somewhere more central in the electorate.

I rate Glen Waverley as the most likely ALP gain (excluding seats they already notionally gained like Caulfield).

On my very rough calculations this seat and neighbouring Bayswater would be held by Labor by roughly 2.5% based on Federal results. Clearly Federally there was a huge swing to Labor among the Chinese community, anyone have any insight into whether this will hold up at the state election? Another factor that will be missing in Bayswater is the Tudge factor which I’m sure shifted a few votes to Labor. I think Glen Waverley and Bayswater will be very interesting to watch.

I’m classing this as a Labor gain but only just.

1. The Federal Liberals vote crashed in May 2022 whilst Labor bucked the national trend and actually increased their vote in this neck of the woods.

2. This seat has one of the largest Chinese migrant populations. The anti-lockdown and anti-vax anger is overblown here. There is a very strict zero-Covid policy in China. I’m sure many of them have heard from friends and relatives in China about rolling lockdowns, food shortages and mass daily testing and surveillance. They may feel relieved that Victoria’s lockdowns are over and were nothing like China’s. In hindsight, they may even support the lockdowns of 2020 and 2021.

Redistributed, Neil Angus’s office was moved since the previous office is now in the Box Hill electorate, the new office is not in a central location, it is on the most northern edge of the new seat of Glen Waverley. I do agree Labor this time put more effort into seats, unlike last time by just looking at John Mullahy involvement on his social media visiting schools and communities. I think one factor was their missed opportunity last time on winning the previous seat of Forest Hill by just underestimating their chances.

I do think the Chinese vote might be the key for Labor to win Glen Waverley due to a variety of factors:
– Neil Angus is anti-vax and has attended groups that oppose PRC
– Libs Covid stance may not go well for with the Chinese
– Conservative issues such as Safe Schools have long been forgotten
– SRL happened to connect Melbourne’s largest Chinese communities
– Not only the Fed Libs damaged their reputation around China but Vic Libs themselves hold similar views (Andrews One Belt One Road policy might have appealed to Chinese voters)

If they’re migrants from HK or Taiwan though then they’d likely be more anti-China than Pauline Hanson.

Entrepreneur, those from Taiwan tend to be anti-PRC for more historical reasons but they tend to not be very vocal unlike HK’s (more on that below), they make a very small dent in the Chinese Community. HK’s tend to be more vocal against PRC than Taiwanese. Unlike Taiwanese however the HK’s PRC views are not universal in the community. Some in the HK community are actually pro-Beijing either due to family connections (after all many people in HK have family members in the PRC), business reasons, cultural conservativism or a mix of them

@Entrepeneur not necessarily, just like how not all ethnic Chinese migrants from mainland China are 100% supportive of the Chinese government. Particularly if they have family or business ties to the mainland.

The Mainlanders greatly outnumber the HKers and Taiwanese these days. Walk around Glen Waverley (or e.g. Box Hill) and it’s all Mandarin on the street. Twenty years ago you’d hear a lot more Canto.

It turns out the anti-vax stance from Neil Angus affected the results for Glen Waverley and may be one of the factors why he lost

This seat would normally be very comfortable for the Libs. Though it’s not unexpected for them to lose given the issues at play, the fact that they can’t do well in seats like this in recent elections is a cause of concern. The Libs really need to figure out how to win back Chinese Australian voters, something that both Tony Barry, David Davis and Keith Wolahan all identified on the ABC election night coverage.

Marh, on election night Tony Barry on the ABC Panel said that the seats of Ashwood, Burwood and Glen Waverley were the “killing fields” for the Liberal party this election. Although i would extend that to include Bayswater and Ringwood.

Nimalan, I presume NSW Liberals may be better able to court Asian voters because if they don’t then seats like Ryde and Parramatta will also be at risk of being lost to Labor.

For Queensland and Brisbane area, the districts covering the south (Sunnybank) area including Algester, Stretton and Toohey are already considered ‘safe’ for Labor with the LNP only winning them at landslide elections. I would say these districts are similar to places like Box Hill and Glen Waverley that feature higher concentration of Asian voters.

* Box Hill not burwood

On the booth results, Wheelers Hill barely swung. Much of the swing came from Glen Waverley proper, probably reflecting the SRL issue, and the areas that were in the old Forest Hill.