Queensland 2024

Might not have been Hervey Bay actually. I don’t know which seat it was but it was a key one I think.

Travelling back from Toowoomba North to Bancroft I had the opportunity to see 130 Km of main roads. LNP Corflutes visible in Toowoomba, Gatton, Ipswich and Moreton Bay council areas. Only sign noticed in Brisbane City was a single Tim Mander sign in Everton.
Quite a few trucks with LNP “ Adult Crime Adult Time” Billboards parked in prominent spots.
It would appear that LNP are out campaigning ALP, which from my experience is not normally the case.

Queensland can really swing
Take the opposition leaders ex Townsville based seat
2012 he had a 10% margin
2015 lost the seat alp still held 2017 and 2020
This means over 2 elections the seat swung over 20%

@daniel there is no age limit on running for parliament

@Andrew Jackson, I’m sure you know. But just for others here. The Brisbane City council has fairly strict rules on campaign signage which always means you’ll end up seeing a lot less in the city compared to the neighbouring councils. This is an important point to remember if you are trying to use visible campaign signage as a measure of campaign strength and investment for particular divisions. Greens are a party that have recognised this challenge from Brisbane city council and try to bump up the campaign signage that they deploy by making sure they find enough supporters to help them to fully exhaust their private yard signage allowance (in high impact areas too). This is especially effective in the high density and walkable neighbourhoods that they typically do well in.

Probably why Jackson only saw a single Mander sign.

Right now the difference in campaign signage between Waterford (a highly active campaign in Logan City) versus Toohey (a low investment campaign in Brisbane City) is comical.

I can confirm there are lots of Labor signs in both the Sandgate and Nudgee electorates but not much anywhere else in the BCC, MBCC have restrictions on the amount of sings as well

Reported today in the courier mail that Miles and Fentimen could both lose there seats, the suburbs around Brisbane are swinging hard to the LNP

Trump 24 I wouldn’t be surprised is miles does but fentanyl has a bigger margin. If she does go Cameron dick will have a free run at leader post election

There was apparently an internal poll in Waterford a few days ago that had a 13% swing against Fentiman, but that would still leave her on a 3% margin. I expect her to hold on but Miles is in real trouble.

I don’t expect Fentiman to lose but Miles I think will

@laine3% is within the margin if error though so she might still lose as seat polls are less accurate

Debate on tonight, 7:30pm on channel 9

I appreciate that Councilds impose restrictions but a good candidate can get around them without breaching the law. MBCC has some of the most restrictive laws on signage in country. However most signage attached to vehicles is beyond the reach of Council rangers.
I made a submission to MBCC review on political signage. I basically said I do not care what the restrictions are providing the Local Law is enforced. If the penalty is severe enough most candidates will be compliant. However Mander and ALP signs in Sandgate and Nudgee are either legal or illegal. If illegal the rangers should take action. If not illegal which I think is the case their opponents campaign managers need to explain. Corflutes are one of the few mediums that local candidates can use to communicate with electors.
Ben Raue has indicated that he will not include general party website links as candidates . The fact that political parties will not let candidates respond to questionnaires from Media outlets shows up the level of centralisation of political campaigning.
We need more local campaigning.
I understand the reasons why we can no longer put up Corflutes on Telegraph Pole but in 1960’s and 1970’s campaigning involved debate on policy.

One Nation has 4 days to find another 49 candidates if they’re going to run in every seat like they say they will. Even if they do have ghost candidates lined up, isn’t it incredibly messy and unprofessional to leave it to the last minute like this? Not to mention that they’ve been prioritising their people in random electorates like Clayfield rather than their traditional strongholds. They’re nearly on the level of the UAP’s pathetic 2020 attempt and yet they’re still polling 7-8% of the vote…

Miles would be the first male to lead Labor to a loss since 1986, Hmm maybe this election isn’t all over yet (sarcasm)

Daniel didn’t Wayne Goss also lead Labor to a defeat in the 1995 election? I know technically the ALP won a majority but lost it in the court ordered Mundingburra by election.

Yes that’s correct. Inr
Interestingly the lnp won the 2pp by over 3%

Interestingly had onp and nats libs done a deal instead of referencing Labor seats like Barron River cleveland currumbin mansfield mount ommaney mundingburra nicklin redcliffe Springwood townsville could have been won by the coalition and seats like bundaberg cairns kallungar murrumba waterford possibly Mackay ispeich been won by one nation allowing them to defeat Labor.

In 1998

John assume you refer to 1998 election. To deal with onp is nuts…. they are not a mainstream party. I remember ringing onp in
Nsw asking for a reply from Mark Latham who at that time was one of their mps. The conversation I had bordered on the surreal. In.another case I was asked what was my pronoun?

That’s because Mark Latham is nuts

@john. I agree but so.are their 2 Queensland senators

Il disagree with half of that at least I have never met Malcolm Roberts so no comment on him

@Laine “One Nation has 4 days to find another 49 candidates if they’re going to run in every seat like they say they will.”

Their target is the apathetic or disillusioned, anti-establishment voter base. As they are not a mainstream party, their voters probably don’t care that they are unprofessional.

There is a greater incentive to field candidates all over at federal elections or other state elections where there are upper house seats up for grabs. This is because it gets their name out there where they hope that those who vote One Nation in the lower house will also vote for them in the upper house (senate or legislative council) where seats are more winnable.

@Votante it really is quite silly for them to virtually allow their perceived first preference vote to decrease yet again… I would assume this makes people less likely to vote for them if they’re watching the election results roll in and they see a strong state-wide swing against them simply due to the technicality that they’re running less candidates. It makes it seem like the party is dying (maybe it is).

I’ve done a quick draft of the qld redistribution during my spare time in the us. And have finalised all bar the Gold Coast seats which il do tonight,here’s a quick summary.

Cook-> Cape York due to a electorate of the same name and namesake existing at a federal level
Mirani -> abolished. Based on the numbers I’ve gone through this division would either be renamed or abolished but either way the name will be gone. I chose to abolish it due to the surplus on the Sunshine Coast need a new seat to be created north of the Glass house mountains. Named it Stanley after the Stanley River. Mirani is absorbed into surrounding electorates not including gregory which is already elongated and don’t won’t to further elongate it and that absorption will likely have flow on effects to other surrounding electorates.
(New district) Stanley -> new seat created after surplus on the Sunshine Coast and near Gympie are worth nearly a quota. Seat will compromise northern half of Glass House Mountains and souther half of Nanangodue to not wanting unnecessarily elongate it. Nanango will then take in the surplus from Gympie,Maryborough and Harvey bay and parts of Callide required. Could keep current name or change to Kingaroy.
Nanago -> as above. Current name may be retained or Kingaroy a suggestion after the population centre.
Glass House -> bottom half absorbs the excess coming up from Moreton Bay, Brisbane and Sunshine Coast seat. Will maintain the name as they are still in electorate.
Cooper -> has the the same name as a federal electora in Victoria name change suggestions include the gap and enoggera after the population centre and reservoir.
Toohey -> abolished. Distributed amongst surrounding electorates. Some flow on effects.
Miller -> could be renamed to maintain the Toohey name as its namesake is now in the electorate.
Mansfield -> renamed due to major changes. Name suggestions Gravatt/Mount Gravatt after the mountain. Or Wishart after the suburb.
Springwood -> renamed due to major changes/namesake likely no longer in the electorate.
(New district) Regents Park -> new electorate create in the city of Logan to deal with surpluses there.

Quick summary of the Gold Coast seats in total they are 3.82% under quota so spread over 11 electorates is negligible and they can be maintained within gccc.
Coomera -> renamed due to namesake no longer in electorate. Suggest either Ormeau or Pimpala.
Southport -> shifts south possibly renamed if namesake no longer in district or major changes. Name change suggestion Nerang after the river.

Districts unchanged. -> ipswich, ipswich west, locker, inala, Everton, Cairns, mulgrave, Ashley, Kawana, nicklin,. Possibly Rockhampton, Toowoomba n + s,

Springwood -> Rochedale

Munding burra -> Ross after the river.

Something I’ve noticed here in Thailand compared to back at home is that Phuket is quite socially liberal. I would say it is actually more progressive than most of Queensland. There are plenty of adult entertainment venues and bars and cafés that legally sell marijuana here (like the coffeeshops of the Netherlands which are popular with locals and tourists).

I wonder why many parts of Australia are still (in some cases a lot) more conservative than many parts of Thailand. Most Australians, urban or rural, are not religious or at least not strictly religious (unlike in the US where some people still push for religion in politics, education, business and other aspects of everyday life).

Because reasons….

what impact do we think the debate will have? if any?

Kevin Boham has predicted on the basis of lib 55/44 split that Labor will lose roughly 20 seats and retain 30. All seats up to and including Rockhampton would be lost. Of course their will not be a uniform swing so the 20 lost seats will vary from this.

@John, agree that 11 divisions on the Gold Coast can suffice as usual as long as they are sensibly divided spread throughout the Gold Coast LGA boundaries. But I’ve found that the redistribution of the existing divisions is complicated given Coomera is about 36% over quota and will be tricky to shed voters to its close neighbours. I envision that Gaven is going to shed Carrara voters to Southport, Surfers Paradise and Mudgeeraba and take on a decent chunk of Theodore (Pacific Pines in particular) and extend into the Nerang-Beaudesert corridor. Theodore is going to shift around a lot too, migrating North and taking on a lot more of Upper Coomera and parts of Coomera east of the highway. The remainder of the LGA, incorporating Pimpama, Ormeau and the rural localities right up to the Albert River will form something akin to Coomera, but lacking much of what is regarded by the Gold Coast community as Coomera. Something that probably will need a new name. Pimpama will probably do but the ECQ will probably try and get creative with it.

@seq only need to shed to Theodore southwards

I ormeau and pimpala will be my suggestions

@Andrew Jackson and @SEQ Observer. Totally random but I live in the Everton Electorate and the number of Tim Mander signs I have seen compared to Labor and Greens is astounding. Mander has plenty more than Labor and Greens in Brisbane. In Moreton Bay I have not even seen a Labor or Greens sign but I have probably seen 40 Tim Mander signs at least.

@John Rochedale is in BCC (and Mansfield) while Rochedale South is in LCC (and Springwood). The border between Brisbane and Logan is fairly impermeable and has only been crossed once, when the entirety of the area north of Underwood Road went into Mansfield. It switched back two elections later.

Also, for those suggesting changes to electorate names, the ECQ had an odd approach in the 2017 redistribution of proposing their own names at the second stage. Many of those names did not form part of the first round of public submissions so inserting new names was questionable.

The redistributions were due to start in 2024 but there are requirements that they be completed before an election, so they won’t be under way until after the first sitting of Parliament. Going by the 2017 timetable a redistribution will probably not be concluded until the beginning of 2026.

BCC has an odd sign policy that puts it at odds with other LGAs. The argument is that signs can only be erected the day after the writs for the election are issued i.e. October 2. Other councils, especially Redlands and Logan, have lost court challenges for trying to do this and have adopted a more laissez-faire approach. Brisbane used to have limits on the number of signs that could go up during an election, but I understand various Federal representatives told them they were operating above their pay grade and would be happy to see them in court.

@mark yore they will have to cross it somewhere by my numbers due to surplus in Logan an defeceit in bcc

Anyone aware of any interesting independent candidates running? Any with a realistic chance of winning?

@AggMagpie Apart from the incumbent in Noosa the only independent that might get elected is Margaret Strelow in Rockhampton. She’s a popular former Mayor who left Labor in 2017 after they preselected Barry O’Rourke to contest the election instead of her, and her independent 2017 campaign got 23.5% of the first preference vote despite being thrown together at the last minute. Now O’Rourke has retired, I think she will come second behind the LNP and win on third-place Labor preferences.

@John There’s a shortage of almost 70 percent of a full seat on Brisbane’s southside, starting with Oodgeroo and ending with Stretton. Most of the Coomera overage will end up with the Gold Coast seats and the growth on the Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay will probably lead to a new seat there. The growth in the west Logan and Ipswich areas may also justify a new seat there, but it’s harder to maintain the natural and administrative boundaries.

https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/profiles/currentEnrolmentFigures.html

One of the odd demographic issues is the population growth in areas such as Mansfield, Stretton and Toohey aren’t reflected on the electoral roll. That’s because a large proportion of this growth is either transitory (mostly overseas students) or relatively new immigrants who haven’t qualified for citizenship yet. Or those who intend staying as permanent residents.

Murrumba, Pumicestone and Coomera have boomed because their immigration happened earlier. These areas have substantial New Zealand populations, and Murrumba and Pumicestone have massive South African diasporas. Pumicestone is moderated a little bit because a large chunk of the electorate is Bribie Island. Changes to the way New Zealanders have been granted residence under SCV have also made it easier for long-term residents to become citizens and voters.

What is a bit of an unknown is the longer-term drop in population in regional Queensland. What I intend doing in my submission is starting with Cook or Traegar and working my way down, trying to centre it on regional towns and cities where possible. Small variances in enrolment can be quite substantial when it comes to distance so it makes it easier than jumping into the great Brisbane metroplex.

@mark. I’m in full agreement on your assessment. In that with north Queensland and south Brisbane have a sizeable deficit and Logan and the Sunshine Coast are in considerable excess. That’s why I’ve abolished toohey and Mirani in favour of a new Logan and Sunshine Coast seat as outlined in my preliminary drafts. This enabled me to pull Burdekin out of townsville (numbers pending) and push it down to take in Mirani part of Mackay and maybe the rest off issac council, in regards to oodgeroo it redlands and capable take in redlands council with springwood taking the leftover vurrently the other 3 are about 2.9 quotas so its as simple as moving parts of sprinwood to fix them up. I wanted to do a radical boundary change but I suspect the qec will go for a fix up so I’m gonna do 2 submissions for those 3 seats. It’s also for that reason I’m having springwood be where the crossing between Logan and Brisbane is done (if any) as that will basically be the leftovers seat. Both ispwich and ipswich west are at quota along with locker and scenic rim only mildly above quota but can shed parts of its Logan territory back to Logan. I also started in Cook and between it tracer Barron River and hill only trader is under and the other 3 can top it up. .

I cant see strettlow making the 2cp to do so she would need to knock out either liberal or labor

The ECQ has released the finalised list of candidates (about half an hour late).

What happens if the vote was 47/53 instead of 55/45? Hung parliament? Very narrow lnp absolute majority?

It won’t narrow, It will be an LNP landslide, they don’t have their baseball bats out in QLD, they have their Chainsaws. Just ask NP

what if they find a gay porno of David Crisafulli and Steven Miles? oh sorry i thought we were asking things that arent going to happen

@Mick Quinlivan I’ve already said I’ll wear an Arsenal jersey for a week if Labor wins.

what will you wear if trump wins?

John, I’ll wear furry costume if Trump wins, Because I consider him dangerous for Australia, but I don’t like his opponent either.