Greenslopes – QLD 2020

ALP 10.1%

Incumbent MP
Joe Kelly, since 2015.

Geography
South-East Brisbane. Greenslopes covers the Brisbane suburbs of Holland Park, Greenslopes and Holland Park West, and parts of Coorparoo, Camp Hill, Mount Gravatt and Carina.

History
The seat of Greenslopes has existed since 1960. In that time the seat has always been won by a party of government.

The seat was won in 1960 by Liberal candidate Keith Hooper. He had previously held the seat of Buranda since 1957. He held Greenslopes until his death in 1977.

In 1977 the seat was won by Bill Hewitt. He had previously held the seat of Chatsworth for the Liberals since 1966. He was defeated in Greenslopes in 1983 by National Party candidate Leisha Harvey.

Harvey became a minister in the Ahern government in 1987. In 1989 she lost her seat to Labor candidate Gary Fenlon.

Fenlon was re-elected in 1992 before losing to Liberal candidate Ted Radke in 1995. Fenlon won the seat back off Radke in 1998. He then went on to be re-elected repeatedly in 2001, 2004 and 2006.

In 2009, Fenlon retired and was succeeded by Cameron Dick. The new member for Greenslopes was immediately promoted to cabinet and served first as Attorney-General and then as Minister for Education in the Bligh government.

In 2012, Cameron Dick was defeated by LNP candidate Ian Kaye. Kaye served one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Joe Kelly. Kelly was re-elected in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Greenslopes is a safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Joe Kelly Labor 12,93042.30.0
Ian Kaye Liberal National 11,11036.4-5.0
Victor Huml Greens 6,49821.3+7.6
Informal1,1143.5

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Joe Kelly Labor 18,36460.1+5.1
Ian Kaye Liberal National 12,17439.9-5.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Greenslopes have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.1% in the north-east to 68.5% in the west.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 20% in the north-east to 28.4% in the west.

Voter groupGRN primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
North-East20.158.17,75825.4
South-East21.162.16,92622.7
West28.468.53,81812.5
Pre-poll19.959.25,28117.3
Other votes19.956.56,75522.1

Election results in Greenslopes at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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8 COMMENTS

  1. The Greens are targeting this seat and outpolled Labor in Coorparoo ward at the council level. Joe Kelly’s incumbency probably makes it a bridge too far to overtake either major party, but a swing against Labor overall might see them grab it

  2. As mentioned on Maiwar, I still see McConnel and Moggil the next 2 best seats after South Brisbane and Maiwar… although Cooper has been brought into play too. I agree with @John, the incumbency will keep Labor safe for now, something now lost in Cooper. This is one of 7 seats the greens polled 20% on first pref at the 2017 election and they’d be wanting to poll more this time. No change this time around, but a good result in 2020 could see the Greens be a real threat in 2024.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  3. Yeah nah this is a easy retain for Labor. It was advised by the experts in the Tallyroom QLD podcast that South Brisbane for the Greens was lineball. While Greens were not a chance to win McConnel. Greenslopes would then have to be considered a hail mary for the Greens.

    Joe Kelly has been floated in the media as a chance from the Labor Right to fill a ministry with the departures of Kate Jones, Anthony Lynham, and Coralee O’Rourke.

  4. Greens got a boost here and in Miller with the Liberals decision to put Labor last. If there’s an LNP to ALP swing as well an ALP to Green swing in these areas (both quite plausible), the Greens could leap frog the Liberals into 2nd and win on preferences.

    Surprisingly few seats where that can happen besides the obvious South Brisbane, but the Greens targeting Miller and Greenslopes as winnable seats just became that bit more plausible.

  5. Of the Greens “2nd tier” seats they’ve been talking up Cooper, seem to have abanoned Clayfield, Moggill seems detached from the central campaign, and Miller doesn’t seem to get many mentions. But there seems to be a fair bit of hype over Greenslopes. Victor Huml’s social media shows huge prepoll teams and I don’t think it’s staged.

    I had this as an ALP retain but maybe the Greens know something we don’t

  6. Not staged but I checked again and it was a gallery, not just Greenslopes. Still, Michael Berkman did a recent post saying South Brisbane, McConnel, Cooper and “maybe Greenslopes”. More interesting was the omission of Miller which I always put in the same category

  7. It’s not just that he’s got the organisation that Miller seems to lack, but he’s been personally campaigning his heart out this week. Patsy O’Brien on the other hand seems pretty lethargic in comparison, she’s clearly resigned herself, and Bartlett is practically AWOL. I still believe Cooper is the best prospective 4th seat but Greenslopes would easily be the fifth, if I still dared to dream. Nonetheless I’ve gotten increasingly pessimistic personally, I’m not even sure McConnel will flip.

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