Bancroft – QLD 2020

ALP 6.2%

Incumbent MP
Chris Whiting, since 2017. Previously Member for Murrumba 2015-2017.

Geography
Brisbane. Bancroft covers suburbs on the northern fringe of Brisbane, including Burpengary East, Deception Bay, North Harbour and North Lakes.

History
Bancroft was created in 2017 primarily out of northern parts of the seat of Murrumba.

Murrumba had been held by Labor for all but one election since 1977.

The LNP’s Reg Gulley broke Labor’s streak in 2012, but lost in 2015 to Labor’s Chris Whiting. Whiting was elected to represent Bancroft in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Bancroft is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Whiting Labor 12,25243.0-7.2
Kara Thomas Liberal National 7,63126.8-10.7
Chris BoulisOne Nation5,43819.1+19.1
Simone Dejun Greens 1,7726.2-0.1
Barry GrantIndependent1,4255.0+5.0
Informal1,2704.3

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Chris Whiting Labor 16,02956.2-2.1
Kara Thomas Liberal National12,48943.8+2.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bancroft have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.4% in the north to 61.6% in the centre.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.7% in the south to 22.5% in the north.

Voter groupON primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
South14.756.08,08128.3
Central20.161.65,83320.5
North22.553.41,9877.0
Pre-poll21.953.17,48026.2
Other votes19.355.95,13718.0

Election results in Bancroft at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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51 COMMENTS

  1. My seat. I doubt the LNP are seriously targeting this northside suburban seat with many young families. Even though Petrie is on an 8% margin. That margin was a fluke since Labor did poorly statewide and i expect allot of the SEQLD LNP seats that are safe now to revert back ro marginal next time round. In my opinion the LNP are better targetting slightly more safer seats in regional QLD than this one. Labor HOLD

  2. “That margin was a fluke since Labor did poorly statewide and i expect allot of the SEQLD LNP seats that are safe now to revert back ro marginal next time round.” Why ?. labor lost a 1/4 of it’s core constituents Why isn’t this a trend ?

  3. Daniel: which regional seats are safer for Labor than 6%? I’m only seeing Mackay, Mulgrave and Gladstone.

  4. @Daniel thanks for the seat information. This electorate has my favourite name for a town in all of QLD, Burpengary of course. I think the ONP vote will go down this election, absorbed by the LNP here, but really don’t see a change.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  5. Agree completely with Daniel ALP will retain.
    Chris Whiting has been an active MP and prior to that Councillor with absolutely no complaints about him personally. I am expecting a limited field with ALP, LNP, Greens and PHON.
    Only sign of campaigning has been unlawful One Nation Corflutes which are not supposed to be put up till writs are issued. They appear on weekends and disappear on weekdays. Definite pattern of hoping Council will not notice.
    I have voted in 52 elections since1972 and have never previously voted ALP number 1 but the way things are going Chris Whiting will get my Primary vote but he definitely will be ahead of LNP.
    Frecklington is the most negative opposition leader I have experienced. Her border closure policy appears to be just say opposite of what Palaszczuk is saying.
    One good policy that Libs have is taking up the old Gair ALP and Gair DLP policy of support for Bradfield Scheme but this is being somewhat white anted by one of her local Federal MP’s running around and saying it will never go ahead because they will not get money.
    Bancroft is a mixture of Housing Commission estates and Rural Residential areas . It is effectively suburban with very few unit blocks.
    Chris Whiting has distributed a number of newsletters emphasising the role he has played in upgrading roads. Road congestion is an issue but not a vote changer only the lusional will think either party can fix the problem. He is pressing for new schools and seems to work well with more conservative Councillors and Mayor.
    I may go to Gympie to help a Katter candidate but that is entirely dependent on KAP placing racists and communist sympathisers below two major parties of their How to Vote.

    My prediction in Bancroft easy ALP win.

  6. @winediamond I think it might go down too and here are my reasons….1. How can PHON possibly top the 2017 result where they literally got hours upon hours of media coverage with Pauline every day being allowed to campaign (despite being a Senator) as though she herself was running for Premier and often didn’t get hard questions off the media, or when she did cried the Fake News Trump line. With all that coverage and the world at that time embracing populism, and Qld by far the best state for PHON, they managed just one seat. 2. In times of political crisis (right now it’s COVID) voters often flock back to major parties. The recession afterwards though often brings minor populist parties back into the frame again though. Just my 2 cents.

  7. I’m changing my prediction to Tossup now after the LNP candidate Phil Carlson committed an LNP government is committed to creating a green space for North Lakes and a couple of other suburbs and stop the development of VRG (Village Retirment Group) allot of houses have Stop VRG in this area, and could be a turning point and could put this seat in play. At this stage Labor tilts but wouldn’t be surprised if the LNP win here barely. September prediction: NO CLEAR FAVOURITE/TOSSUP

  8. Daniel
    Yes this will be interesting.
    However i would put it to you, that realistically the LNP might never have been any real chance ? Perhaps the circumstances you’ve related, only retard ON’s prospects. Consequently Labor’s prospects may well be enhanced, as a result, or finally ? There does appear to be a very wide margin.

  9. Daniel, This Seat is not locked to ALP but it is a mortgage belt seat very dependent on employment to maintain lifestyle they are accustomed to. It is not a seat that will swing over Adani coal mine but might swing over electricity prices.
    Barry Grant the independent from last time is standing again.
    He has already told me that does not need in my vote. I pulled him up over negative campaigning. His negative campaigning ensured that he did not get it anyway. At this stage looks like he might scrape in at no 2 with Libs 3 PHON 4 and Greens. For the very first time in my life (52 Elections) ALP will be first. I think it will only be the 4th time ALP have been ahead of Libs. These being Howard Work Choices election , two occasions when Abortion supporting Wyatt Roy was candidate and to get rid of Newman dictatorship the other times.

  10. ALP have a now legally sited Corflutes up in Buckley Rd. LNP have still made no Impact . I do not even know name of candidate. I know I can look up but I have not received anything from them. Chris Whiting and ALP has sent out postal vote Applications and flyers featuring upgrade to highway.
    One Nation have been campaigning harder than Liberals. Council think they were sneaking up corflutes at weekend and taking them down on Sunday Pm as they had received more than one complaint about illegal signage but reported signage disappeared by time ranger got there.

    My submission to Council inquiry on Corflutes election signage was basically I do not care providing you enforce whatever rules you make. They ended up with fairly strict by laws but I sudpect lack the will to enforce. Corflutes can now be put up.

  11. FTB
    i am really sorry that for some reason i just can’t explain, or even understand, i missed your detailed reply to my question. i am truly sorry for such rudeness, please accept my sincere apology
    cheers WD

  12. @ FTB
    In response (appallingly,& belatedly !!), to your 2 points, & 2 cents !.

    To start with, all the aspects of Hanson in 2017. Very interesting. I guess as a “nonQLDer” none of all this is very apparent. As i wouldn’t have seen most of the coverage you have referred to i’ll accept the validity of your observation. However i will make these comments.

    1/ the media do ask Hanson ‘hard questions”. However they are quite inept at handling her responses ( they are very largely “piss weak”!)

    2’ Hanson is quite adept at overwhelming such questions with emotional forcefulness, Hysteria, & rage. The media don’t seem to be able to deal with anything other than scripted political doublespeak (bullshit !) That seems to be their comfort zone !!. I think to dismiss this as ” or when she did (get asked hard questions) cried the Fake News Trump line.” is mistaken.

    Hanson has over 25 years developed a political style which is effective (for her). More importantly this style appears to be authentic, & genuine(!) to many voters (rightly wrongly).
    As does her immoderate, intemperate, & evangelical communication style (she is a reformer type 1 personality type), with all the accompanying preaching & lecturing !!.

    3/ i don’t understand what you mean with “the world at that time embracing populism”. Is that nationalism ? “Trumpism”!? Being representative of values, & views is that, not simply vote whoring. All parts of the electorate need representation, not just the (perceived) elitist, & virtuous sections !. Even the repulsively, hypocritical Greens !.

    4/ the implication that PHON vote has peaked due to changing conditions. The eagerness to dismiss, discredit, & invalidate PHON voters, means that their motivations are not seen , or recognised. This incuriosity is quite staggering. Most of my labor/ green friends simply, & immediately dismiss ON as a “racists”….. What purpose does such one dimensional judgement, & condemnation serve ? In fact most ON voters are simply voting AGAINST the 2 major parties. So the real question is whether this is a phenomena, or a trend ?

    5/ the one seat thing. Is this the point, or whether their vote is building ?. The seats will come if it is.

    6/ Covid. The theory that voters will align with the 2 majors. Speculating that they will, is really no more valid than they won’t. We will see soon enough. Personally i think the abuses of power will create far more unpredictable consequences

    probably more self indulgent than 2cents worth. BUT thanks for such a thought provoking, & detailed post. Hope that my response does it justice
    cheers WD

  13. Wine Diamond
    My feeling is that Covid will result in support for any sitting government in Australia. I doubt if Palaszczuk Will suffer much as a result of Covid.ALP corflutes out today show Palaszczuk rather than the local candidate. Therefore I think we can assume that A LP internal polling is supportive of my position

  14. Andrew Jackson
    Your opinion is perfectly valid, well reasoned, & entirely plausible. However i disagree. Iv’e already shared my contempt for all the alarmism, propagandising, & hysteria regarding Covid. No need to repeat.So far govts have gained, -so far. They can also lose

    Anyway if Whiting has managed to impress you, i’m sure he will be staying. Labor hold

    My view is that Labor have already lost this election. However that does by no means involve the LNP winning much, There are still nearly 5 weeks to go.

  15. This election depends on the results of about 12 mainly provincial city seats which are urban and labor held. They will not vote as 2019 fed election where labor polled so poorly they did not get 2 senators. There are also chances of some alp gains. If alp fails to win a majority then a hung parliament is the next most likely result. The lnp may need. Both kap and one to govern…. very unstable

  16. An unstable government just means the government falls and we have a new election. Thank the stars that we have a Parliamentary Democracy where failure leads to a new election rather than USSituation wher a govt failure is leading to the possibility of Civil War.

  17. One Nation are clearly the underdog in this fight, running self-funded campaigns with a small team of unpaid volunteers, against the massive major party machines throwing cash at billboards, tv adds and glossy brochures filling up in letterboxes. Don’t think they are out of the game. A small swing to One Nation and a small swing against Labor could see some seats turn orange around Moreton Bay. The past state election in nearby Pumicestone saw One nation on 23%, Libs on 29% and Labor on 35%. If Labor are on the nose, working class people won’t go to Liberal, only Labor Left faction social justice warrior types would put Liberal above Labor. The One Nation candidates in the region are very active and working like a team, unlike the majors. Their facebook pages are much more professional.

  18. Truth Seeker needs to read Ben’s analysis of Bancroft. It is not a marginal seat. Whiting will win the seat safely and “a small swing against” ALP here will have no impact here. Whilst I appreciate that TS is talking about Moreton Bay generally he/she is commenting on Bancroft
    Seat.
    If Ashby-Hanson party have more professional Facebook sites than Majors it is because it is run and managed by an internal dictatorship that 99% of Australian political party activists would not tolerate. When you have President for life and a Registered Officer for life who does a Pontus Pilot when executive lose $1/2 Million imagine the cost of Hanson having any part of her fingers in public purse.
    I do agree with Truth Seeker that One Nation is running an effective campaign in Bancroft without the resources of Major Parties.
    However Pauline Hanson and/or Ashby-Hanson party got how much out of public purse in last three years? They are not some minor insignificance they are a public financed national liability. They and the Greens both deserve to be last on everyone’s ballot papers. Unfortunately we can’t put both last so pick the one with the one with the least professional Facebook page to give wooden spoon to.

  19. AJ some insightful comments but so much slanted by heavy personal bias. The One Nation candidates in this greater area appear more disciplined and experienced than their LNP counterparts. Most are veteran campaigners. The Bancroft candidate having run federally last year. The Morayfield candidate having finished 2nd previously in state 2017. The Murrumba candidate also a repeat candidate albeit from a neighbouring seat. It could be that the party has evolved in recent times as much of the negative hype has come from one time soured ex-candidates. The presence of recontesting candidates speaks well of the party’s internal processes. I monitor their facebook sites and there is much original content there, pages are uniform and consistent in view but appear highly personalised and therefore likely to be directly controlled by candidates. If so they are articulate and well spoken, I agree they are outsiders but I wouldn’t be so quick to condemn.

  20. Prediction (September 2002): ALP Retain [No Change]

    Thanks everyone for the informative comments and AJ alerting me to the independent running. I think with the increase of minor parties this election compared to last time there will be less independents. Will be interesting to see when nominations close.

  21. Question, will my vote be counted if I just put a “1” next to a candidate but don’t number the rest of the boxes? I am disgruntled by some of the political parties I don’t want to even put a number next to their box, since the candidate im voting for is almost certain to be in the top 2 anyway. Does it matter if I keep the other boxes blank? My preference ce won’t exhaust because the candidate I’m voting for comes in the top 2 anyway.

  22. Politics obsessed has a valid point about when exactly nominations close. In fact Electoral Act allows nominations to close later than ECQ deadline for submission of How to Votes for this election.

    This would be absolutely impossible to comply with as the addition of a single independent after HTV submitted would render the submitted HTV unacceptable. So presumably the writs will show close of nominations earlier than the latest date allowed in Electoral Act. I find it hard to understand why ECQ can not issue a detailed election calendar six months out from election. We will just have to wait for tomorrow.

  23. @Andew Jackson
    It is unusual for you Andrew to vote for the ALP although this would be your second time voting for Chris Whiting, the previous when protesting against the Newman Government. I don’t know Chris that well but did predict his victory over Reg Gully in 2015. The only other meetings were either at booths or when I had quite heavy words with him when he campaigned heavily for fixed terms for the Queensland Government. Something I think is wrong and no doubt with a single house all us Queenslanders will just have to learn to live with. Increased corruption and the non-abilty to remove non-performing governments will become the norm in Queensland. Lets just hope that history does not repeat itself and we get a solid block of minors into the parliament to limit the damage that fixed terms will most certainly bring.

  24. @Daniel
    Even if your party is likely to finish in the Top two how would it feel if other parties on the ticket felt like yourself and only voted 1. Imagine your party getting 30 the other getting 30 but the other 40 saw how your party preferenced and went the other way and placed their preference with the party on the other side. Your stand must be unusual as most people understandably aren’t that impressed by either party of the Duopoly but secure their position by preferencing them. My advice is to use your preferences wisely and wait till all candidates are nominated before making that decision.

  25. Tony in 2015 I did not vote for Chris Whiting but preferenced him ahead of Liberals. I voted for FF in 2015. The difference this time is that Whiting will probably get my No 1 vote. I have never previously voted ALP.
    Therefore the Palaszczuk government has achieved a first with me. The independent has told me he does not want my vote because I challenged him
    On Facebook about negative campaigning.

  26. ECQ website does not seem to answer Daniels question. However as we have had so many changes to Electoral Act it is very difficult to keep up with changes. However I think John’s answer is correct. ECQ site just says follow the instructions on top of ballot paper. I have never had any difficulty in picking last number it is normally 1 and 3 I have difficulty with.
    In summary Daniel you can opt to cast an informal vote if you want to but wisdom would suggest number every square to play safe.

  27. In QLD state elections you can leave 1 box blank (which is treated as if you intend to preference that party last).

    Any more boxes left blank than that and your entire ballot is ruled informal, not even the 1st preferences will count.

    Some elections have “savings” provisions to include an incomplete preference in the count until it runs out of clear preferences but not this election (for example in the federal senate if you only marked 1 valid above the line preference the vote is counted despite the ballot instructions being to fill at least 6 preferences).

    I would recommend always filling every box. It’s simply more influential on how you get governed, even if it’s only a 1% difference between your last favourite and 2nd least favourite option that’s worth the stroke of a pencil.

  28. Bennee
    Completely agree. With Preferential voting in 90% of cases once preference. Has gone to one of Major Parties it will not go anywhere else. The few exceptions are where One of minors KAP, Greens or Ashby-Hanson come in top two.
    In 1970’s I can remember old DLP Central Council procedure for allocating preferences was to ideologically allocate preferences to those we sort of supported then go to the better of the two majors and from then on allocate preferences on basis of least chance of voter making error. In most cases that meant that once vote had gone to Liberals all other squares were in effect donkey votes in Ballot paper order. Very occasionally a NAZI or Comm made us beer from this approach.

  29. Spotted Chris Whiting at a street stall in North Lakes today.
    Barry Grant has two Corflutes up in D Bay.
    Only literature seen was postal vote details from Chris Whiting . A few LNP. Corflutes up but all very quiet.

  30. Noticed a pattern here. Walking next to the golf course i see many LNP signs. But the further you go you see less of them. Down Discovery drive i see allot of Labour signs. Down Diamomd Jubilee way and the northwest portion of North Lakes i see One Nation signs. I have seen this divide. And it is clear our town is more divided than ever when it comes to politics. Most of the Stop VRG folks seem to be supporting the LNP. I know you could argue signs don’t matter but heres the thing… next to the golf course i remember 3 of the houses that have an LNP sign up. I am 95% sure i saw them have an ALP sign up last time. So clearly this Green space issue is switching some voters to the LNP and one of them happens to be my Father even though we don’t have a sign on and we live closer to the Main road than the Golf Course or should i say former golf course. I don’t think the Greens will do well here because never in my life have i ever ever seen a Greens sign before other than on TV or the internet. Abd i haven’t seen any of any other candidates in this election or even last election from any other party other than the 3 main. LNP,Labour,OneNation. Not even have i seen a Palmer sign! Even though they might not field a candidate here in this election. I still retain my prediction of a narrow Labour hold. It is a must watch on election night and a must win for Labour.

  31. Daniel
    It is known as NIMBY “Not in my back yard” They will object strongly to developments that impact on own serenity but are happy for similar developments to occur elsewhere.
    But let’s face it Libs are not really opposed to North Lakes Development they just have jumped on band wagon to make noise. What North Lakes needs is non service sector industry.
    The reason Roads are such a big issue is lack of local jobs remove retail and North Lakes has the GDP of a slum.

    It is as much a parasite development as the inner city zone of transition.

    How any one puts up with the restrictive housing covenants is beyond me. No garbage bins, sheds, boats or trailers visible From
    Street.

    When I told the salesman trying to sell us a block twenty five ago that I did not want to live in East Germany he got upset and said North Lakes was nothing like Dresden. It surprised me he knew that much about East Germany.

  32. BOP,
    Not sure how your comment relates to this seat, the election or politics at all quite frankly, it is incredibly difficult to make paragraphs on the phone i use so at that time i can’t really do much about it but when I am on PC like now, sure.

    Deb is still yet to come to North Lakes which she hasn’t yet which could indicate they are not seriously targeting the seat. It is quite surprising that they won’t target this seat like they are targeting a seat like Radcliffe more hardly than this because North Lakes being a newer area with young families with kids. This growing town could be swayed one way or the other and this town has shifted to the right in the last few years looking at Federal results here.

    I don’t expect Redcliffe to fall. Redcliffe might generally be an older suburb which should appeal to the LNP. But unlike Bancroft. They keep running the same candidate which could signal they are struggling to recruit other candidates to run against Labor just like in Richmond federally. Bancroft will most likely fall before Redcliffe if either fell at all. Yvette is well known and she has represented her area for 6 years federally and 6 years at a state level and is a minister, she won’t be easily toppled.

    Under the right environment I could see this as an LNP gain but not after Redcliffe because truth is candidates matter and the LNP seem to believe running the same candidate will improve their position. It is more likely to do the exact opposite same with Labour. If they weren’t voted in last time why would they be this time outside of a landslide?

  33. Daniel is correct that a major party running same candidate multiple times is not a good look. But this string is about Bancroft and the LNP candidate is very different. So far he is verging on invisibility. I still need to look up his name. All I know about him is that he is an ex USMarine.

    It is fairly obvious that all political parties are having difficulty in recruiting candidates for seats with only a small chance of success. Redcliffe and Bancroft fall into this category for LNP. On other hand they have large number of nominees for safe seats like Federal seat of Groom. Parties are in fact expecting candidates to fund their own campaigns. It may be time to severely limit campaign spending making it an electoral act expense with a mandatory by election resulting and offenders barred from office for 20 years. If we made it a jailable offence we would need a new Jail.
    You can run a limited seat campaign for about $2000. this would cover HTV pamphlet and Corflutes. If all Statewide campaigns were limited to say $50 K plus $2 K per candidate endorsed most parties would be happy. Obviously Palmer would not and Two majors would grumble but they could cope.
    What such a restriction would do is take campaigning out of hands of professional activists and force parties back to using volunteers. This would be a good thing.

  34. Any idea when Postals will be sent? Still haven’t received mine and I applied on the first few days of the applications being open.

  35. SME with me. I have never previously voted by postal vote so it is a bit strange. I will let you know when I get. I heard on ABC TV news that postal vote number applications had jumped from 300K to over a million.

  36. #IVoted \ Ballot came today, Can the witness be any person? My father did the witness signature, asking because sometimes it has to be someone outside the family

  37. Just taken a drive through most of Morayfield Rd at 2.00 PM. No candidates out but Cherish Life has a mobile sign and truck urging Voters to put ALP last. Abortion in my view is murder but I have never been able to justify making electoral issues on basis of one issue alone.
    My position is not exactly pro life because I think abortion providers should be charged with murder and hung as punishment if guilty.
    After all the Whitlam Governments Human Rights Bill even treated the human foetus as having rights.
    Cherish Life was only activity in Bancroft’s main road at 2.00 PM.

  38. Surprised no other parties fielded candidates here like Palmer, because the exact same parties fielded this time like in 2017. Any idea why minor parties don’t field here? I wouldn’t consider PHON or the GRNS ”Minor Minor” sure they are smallish but not compared to the tiny parties like Palmer,Shooters,Communist,Jackie Lambie Network, etc.

  39. Daniel –

    Minor parties are constrained both by funding (Qld state level nomination deposits are $250/per; lower than federal at $2000 for the Senate, but to cover the whole state is $250 x 93 vs $2000 x 2) and more importantly, candidate and volunteer availability. Even the Greens and Labor sometimes field paper candidates in deeply conservative areas.

    Palmer can throw money at the problem – not so the rest of us.

  40. AlexJ
    There is enough money in Bancroft to run a candidate. One of DLP, Katter and Australian Country Party candidates have been run by the old DLP branch members. This group has swung from
    DLP to Katter to Australian Country Party but have faced opposition to running candidates.We raised enough money to run a Country Party Candidate at Longman by election and certainly could have raised enough for a basic campaign, Corflutes, a few flyers , nomination fees and a How to Vote. What has caught up wIth us is age and lack of support from State and National executives.

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