Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Sam Hibbins, until recently a member of the Greens, resigned after recently quitting his party due to the revelation of an affair with a staff member.
Margin – GRN 12.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
Hibbins gained a sizeable primary vote swing in 2022, with Labor reduced to a clear third place, and he also increased his majority after preferences.
Hibbins resigned from the Greens in November 2024 due to the revelation of a previous affair with a staff member.
- Nathan Chisholm (Independent)
- Rachel Westaway (Liberal)
- Janine Hendry (Independent)
- Geneviève Gilbert (Family First)
- Alan Menadue (Independent)
- Tony Lupton (Independent)
- Mark Dessau (Libertarian)
- Angelica Di Camillo (Greens)
- Dennis Bilic (Sustainable Australia)
- Buzz Billman (Independent)
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice
Assessment
Prahran has effectively two different axes on which competition takes place – between Labor and Greens to be the leading progressive party, and between those parties and the Liberal Party on the two-candidate-preferred count. The race was close on both axes in 2014. In 2018 the Liberal Party wasn’t competitive but Labor and Greens were still close. In 2022, Hibbins won easily on both.
This seat could be competitive on either axis in Hibbins’ absence, particularly considering the circumstances of his departure.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sam Hibbins | Greens | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 |
Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 12,198 | 31.1 | -1.6 |
Wesa Chau | Labor | 10,421 | 26.6 | -3.9 |
Alice Le Huray | Animal Justice | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
Ronald Emilsen | Family First | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
Alan Menadue | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
Informal | 1,223 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sam Hibbins | Greens | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 |
Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 14,909 | 38.0 | -3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 39.1% in hte north to 45.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18% in the south to 29.2% in the north. Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.5% in the centre to 29.6% in the south, and outpolling Liberal in the south.
The Greens two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party ranged from 64% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
North | 39.1 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 64.0 | 5,206 | 13.3 |
Central | 43.9 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 68.3 | 3,879 | 9.9 |
South | 45.5 | 18.0 | 29.6 | 76.3 | 2,865 | 7.3 |
Pre-poll | 35.4 | 32.7 | 26.6 | 61.1 | 18,980 | 48.3 |
Other votes | 30.5 | 35.2 | 26.9 | 56.5 | 8,357 | 21.3 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.
Former ALP Senator John Black is claiming in the ‘AFR’ that the Liberal Party will win Prahran and Werribee on Saturday 8 February, saying ‘the odds favour’ such an outcome.
He also comments that if this comes to pass, the Federal Labor government is looking ‘terminal’.
Preferencing tendencies of Labor voters* not candidates, of course.
Specifically this post, from NSW 2023, where the differences between Labor voters in inner city vs regional/rural seats are evident. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51058
Thanks Adda, I was about to reference that blog post.
There is plenty of evidence that Labor voters in Prahran very strongly favour the Greens over the Liberal Party, moreso than in your typical inner-city contest let alone other places like Lismore.
John Black’s opinion isn’t worth much.
still without labor directing preferences to the greems and the large field I imagine the liberals will finish first on preferences. and the result could be close especially with form Labor member Lupton directing preferences to the Libs.
@Raue hypothetical if ay the Greens failed to nominate in time who wins the seat then? Libs or does one of the left wing candidates?
Well said Adda. You put what I was trying to get across much more eloquently than I did!
@Ben – Reports I have heard from the ground support that evidence too. Labor voters, even those who have indicated an intention to vote for Tony Lupton, have apparently been expressing far more dislike for the Liberals than the Greens and “I would never preference the Liberals” has been a common theme.
Adda is right that most people who opt to not give their primary vote to either the Greens or Liberals, will already know exactly which one they will preference higher. A HTVC will not influence that. And most who are Labor voters will prefer the Greens. Without HTVCs I agree it’s unlikely to be 80% or more, but 70% is realistic.
If you assume given recent polling in Victoria and factors like low turnout, cause of byelection and loss of Greens incumbency, that if Labor had run the results might have been:
LIB 36, GRN 32, ALP 24, Others 8.
If 70% of the Labor vote ends up with the Greens, much of which will come via an IND/minor vote first (so these next figures are not primary votes), it will break around 17-7 which gets us to roughly 49 GRN, 43 LIB and 8 Other before factoring in the preferences from voters who would have voted ‘Other’ even if Labor ran.
Guess what that would wind up being? A Greens 2CP in the 53-54% range which is exactly what I’ve been predicting.
I don’t think that’s being overly optimistic or generous to the Greens, or ignoring circumstances that I have already factored into the -4.5% swing I gave them (and +5% I gave to the Liberals) as a starting point, or ignoring that the Greens will get weaker flows from Labor than they would with a Labor candidate & HTVC which I have also factored in.
I think expecting Labor voters to break any less than around 60-40 in favour of the Greens, just because an IND has the Liberals higher on a HTVC, is overly optimistic for the Liberals.
Honestly I think it’s a bit easier to understand this seat by just looking at it as a straight left-right fight between Greens and Liberal and a 12% margin. All of the primary vote movement below the surface will mostly be irrelevant to that. Generally it seems like the left is holding up better in the inner city than in the outer suburbs, and the Greens can’t be directly blamed for the government’s woes in the way Labor can. I think an 8% swing would be substantial but is quite plausible.
I agree. That gets to the heart of Adda’s comment that most people not giving their primary vote to a major know who which the majors they prefer and will preference, regardless of HTVCs etc.
In that context, all the talk about Tony Lupton, HTVCs and primary votes is noise.
Most voters will go into the booth simply making a Greens v Liberals choice. Exactly as they did in 2022 when 62% chose the Greens over the Liberals.
There are factors that will cause a swing against the Greens, which have been discussed at length already (low turnout, loss of incumbency etc), but you’re right that what it comes down to is simply whether or not the left to right swing will exceed 12%. My prediction is no.
the greens have a suffered though esppecially in the recent local elections particuarly in this area so i think a liberal win cannot be ruled out no matter how fanciful it might seem
The swing in Port Phillip was 2.7%. The main reason they lost seats in Stonnington and Port Phillip was the change to the voting system. Not evidence of some enormous collapse in support.
I’d argue what happened to the Greens in council elections is irrelevant.
a) In Victoria, party names are not even on council ballots so everyone looks like an IND unless you recognise their name;
b) There was a change to single-member wards that in some cases resulted in seat losses where their vote didn’t actually decline, in Port Phillip for example the Greens came second in 4 wards (and 3 of them they lost to other left-wing candidates, including the one that overlaps Prahran where the Greens candidate actually lost to an even more left-wing candidate);
c) In the council elections in general there was a big push to move away from party representation in councils, and towards local independents. This is not reflective of any left/right shift, and is very specific to the council level. Despite this though, I believe in Port Phillip the Greens’ primary vote still only went backwards by around 3%, and that “parties shouldn’t be in local council” factor won’t exist in a state byelection
I think that’s one of the narratives that the media has just latched onto in order to make these byelections (and the council results) interesting and newsworthy. But that same media are also calling Prahran a “three way contest” which it clearly isn’t. Tony Lupton will be lucky to poll double-digits, his chance of making the 2CP is nil.
As I said though, I haven’t “ruled out” a Liberal gain. I’m just not predicting one, because I think a Liberal swing somewhere between 5-12% is more likely than a Liberal swing over 12%.
il be on the streets or Prahan helping the libs this weekend. only reason is its closer and easier to get to then Werribee for me
I’ll be voting Saturday at the St Kilda polling place as it’s closest to me. I like to cast an ordinary vote that counts to my nearest polling place. It’s the psephology nerd in me wanting to contribute to more useful data. 🙂
@trent i prefer to vote on the day too unless i cant for whatever reason. lsat time at fderal election i had to go to adelaide for comic con
I’m expecting the Greens to hold Prahran. The Liberals will have to mazimise their vote along St Kilda Road and the areas around Fawkner Park & Domain, the South Yarra library and Prahran East. The problem the Liberals face is they have not been strong around Windsor and St Kilda East for years and I cannot point to anything that has changed that, even when Peter Costello was the local MP, Windsor was the Liberals weakest booth with a TPP in the mid to high 30’s.
If I remember rightly the boundary change prior to 2022. Improved the position. Of alp vs greens but this did not
Make a difference.
Green retain.
How accurate have john Blacks predictions been in the past? Does anyone know?
@Mick Quinlivan , on 18 April 2022, John Black (a former Labor Senator) said ‘Labor remains favourite’ to win the 21 May 2022 election.
This was despite a pollster finding Federal Labor’s primary vote had declined four percentage points to 34.
So on that occasion, Mr Black was correct.
Looks like this site is swinging now to a Lib pickup in Prahran.
Interesting how the earlier posts on this site had it in the favour of the greens.
Ex labor Senator John Black, seems to think the Libs have it in the bag, as of 5-Feb.
He joins a sole poster on PB and a few here, who also believe the Libs will pick up this seat.
It will be a very interesting by-election. Either way, labor loses. They should have stood a candidate and tested their values. I don’t think the Greens will be particularly impressed that Labor put up a “faux labor indie” candidate, and then had Steve Bracks come out in support of said “faux labor indie candidate” Lupton. No doubt Labor operatives are “assisting” Lupton. As for Steve Bracks pretending he didn’t know where Lupton was recommending preferences – spare me. looks like a bit of labor sabotage to me, with the goal clearly to drive down, or muddy, the green vote.
Either way, I don’t think the Greens will be happy with the result on Saturday night.
Where can I find John Black’s comments? Best result from a Labor perspective would a weak GRN retain with Lupton getting a high primary I’d think
If the result is very close, we may not know it on Saturday night. For instance, postal votes have until Friday 14 February to arrive.
@ Maxim , John Black’s comments were in a paywalled ‘AFR’ article.
I am not sure why John Black is being cited here as some credible pseph? The little I’ve seen of his content seems like it’s just political commentary that is decidedly bereft of evidence.
One thing that hasn’t been discussed much in the last set of comments – some Greens MPs do get a very large personal vote. We saw the swing against Greens in Balmain when Jamie Parker retired.
Until the scandal, Sam Hibbins was a popular local MP. I don’t even live in Prahran and I found him very responsive to correspondence and very level headed. Can’t rule out that he built up a personal vote including from people who usually/tribally vote Liberal. As he left over a scandal, Sam Hibbins is not able to support Di Camillo in her bid.
There may also be some resentment, particularly by certain demographics of men, about losing their local MP over a fairly mild scandal that wouldn’t even make the news for other politicians.
I think the result will be close and due to the dynamics of elections like these won’t be able to be called on the night. Greens are the favourites in this progressive, young renter heavy electorate, but this is not going to be a marquee election for them and they might still lose.
Liberals winning both Prahran and Werribee will be a very strong signal that the federal election is Dutton’s to lose (winning new demographics AND winning Teals back). I also think the media will lock in on the narrative that the Allan government is a dead government walking and Allan doesn’t have the social media or ground support Dan Andrews did to prevent media narratives from taking root.
Kevin Bonham has taken aim at John Black’s comments on X.
Quote from Black’s article:
“In a seat where preferences will decide the outcome, all bar a fellow dog lover and an ex-Greens have preferenced the Liberals, who should win”.
Response by Bonham:
“Completely false claim from, who else, John Black in AFR today re #Prahran
In fact three candidates have recommended preferences to Liberal over Green, three the other way around and three have released open HTVs.”
Black’s comments also assume most people will actually follow IND and minor party HTVCs, which adherence to will be very low.
In fact the one that usually has the most reliable flow of preferences is actually AJP to Greens.
If that was the reason behind John Black’s prediction, I wouldn’t be taking much notice.
On the “evidence” of Black being right because he predicted Labor would win the 2022 federal election a month out, they were winning every poll, had the shortest odds on the betting market, and most people picked a Labor win at that point.
While 1,472 in Prahran voted early on Wednesday 5 February, an increase of about 50 per cent compared with previous typical early voting days, this was less than half the 3,089 in Werribee who did the same yesterday.
It isn’t just a ’20 per cent gap’ as @Trent has claimed – it’s far higher.
It shows apathy in Prahran, a very bad sign for the incumbent Greens. Those who want to change the MP will be more likely to be voting in numbers than those who want to see the status quo continuing.
Where did I ever claim a ’20 per cent gap’? You’re just making things up now.
I also think you’re reading way too much into these sorts of factors. Saying that low early voting numbers will indicate lower turnout and that will hurt the Greens is making a lot of assumptions that aren’t necessarily based on any evidence.
You could alternatively argue that because early votes were less favourable to the Greens than polling day votes, then a higher ratio of polling day votes vs early votes would favour the Greens.
I’m not going to argue that though, because again that would be an assumption. My point is that drawing conclusions about these sorts of numbers is garbage, it’s nothing but a guess.
Byelections generally have a different dynamic of early vs postal vs ordinary votes and I think it’d be stupid to read into any of them as an indication of how people might vote.
For example:
– Postal votes are usually a larger chunk of the total vote share for byelections than normal elections, but that’s because for people who will be away they are a substitute for absent votes (which in regular elections generally favour the left), so therefore you couldn’t assume that a higher postal vote rate might favour conservatives, it might just reduce how much the postal votes favour conservatives due to people who don’t usually place a postal vote;
– There are usually less early votes for a byelection than a general election too, in Warrandyte the rate of each basically reversed for the election vs the byelection
While you argue that low turnout must indicate apathy and therefore a bad sign for the incumbent, conversely, low turnout specifically for early votes could indicate the opposite because there is also a theory that people more enthusiastic for change vote early, the two could cancel each other out.
Like I said, I’m not going to sit here and predict any of that will happen in either direction. I’m just pointing out how ridiculous it is to say “early vote rates are low, that can only mean the Greens are gone”.
That’s almost as silly as saying “All John Black’s predictions must be right because in 2022 he predicted Labor would win the federal election when they were leading 54-46 in the polls”.. 🙂
@Trent , I didn’t suggest “John Black’s predictions must be right” (by which you mean “correct”) but merely gave one example where he was accurate.
@Trent , re you claim I was “just making things up” re a “20 per cent gap” between the numbers early voting in Werribee v fewer in Prahran, here’s what you said on 5 February 2025 at 1112 hours:
“…Werribee not only has 15% higher enrolment, but also had a 20% higher early voting rate in 2022 than Prahran too…”
Every election involves fevered tea-leave reading from early vote numbers. There’s no predictive value to be gleaned, but it keeps up engagement and newspaper headlines. Zooming in on minutiae when nothing substantive has happened during the race tends to be more misleading than simply viewing the big picture. In Prahran’s case, that has always been that this is a two-horse race where the Greens have a huge starting margin.
LOL but that prediction in 2022 was the consensus so it’s irrelevant. Everyone was predicting a Labor win, they were way ahead in the polls, and specifically the Resolve poll you mentioned was actually even better for Labor than their final winning result. So I’m just not sure what that example was supposed to be demonstrating about John Black’s skill as an analyst.
Yeah, I said in 2022 Werribee had a higher early voting rate. See my two posts above. My point is that early voting rates, and especially comparing them between very different seats, don’t say anything about voting intention.
Byelections have different early voting rates to normal elections. There are different motivations to vote early or on the day. While a lower early voting rate could indicate lower turnout, it could also simultaneously indicate a higher ordinary-to-early voting rate, which could have a different outcome. Who knows.
Similarly, you say “Those who want to change the MP will be more likely to be voting in numbers than those who want to see the status quo continuing.” Well couldn’t that also indicate that not many people coming out to vote early means that not that many people want to change the status quo? Again, I’m not saying it’s one or the other, I’m pointing out the flaws in your logic.
Like I already said in my two posts above, my point is that the early voting data is really meaningless. Any conclusion you draw is an assumption.
Anyway, enough arguing with you. Both of us are actually predicting the same thing anyway – a big swing against the Greens (and I have even said a LIB gain is possible) – but you’re looking for a partisan debate where there isn’t one. I’m just trying to provide a balanced & objective analysis, one in which like most people I simply believe that a swing in the range of 7-12% (marginal GRN retain) is more likely than a swing over 12% (LIB Gain) but that either is possible.
Once again I think Adda has put it best, and most succinctly.
Reading into early voting numbers is foolish. This is as simple as a Greens v Liberals 2CP race where the Greens have a 12% head start, but a number of factors working against them that will likely slash that margin considerably. Whether or not it’s slashed by over 12% is all that matters. My prediction is it won’t be.
And in the grand scheme of things, even if the Liberals did gain the seat on Saturday, they will lose it in 2026. There is no possible way the Liberals win or retain Prahran in a general election on these boundaries and with these demographics.
Ooh John Black predicted Labor would win the election? So brave!
Anyone with half a brain knew that Labor could win the election even with a low primary vote, which is exactly what happened. What was the 2PP on that poll with Labor on a primary of 34% Literally every poll at that point had Labor leading the 2PP.
Yeah I went back and looked at BludgerTrack from around April 2022 and Labor’s 2PP at that point was just under 54%, way in front, and even a lot better than their final result was.
The turnout in Prahran in 2022 was something like 82% so it was low to start with. Being an area with high rentals there are probably quite a few people who have moved away and not changed their enrolment. I would not be surprised if the turnout is in the low 60s.
A hypothetical question –
If I was enrolled in Prahran – can I cast an absentee vote should I happen to be in Werribee tomorrow?
@Redistributed, the VEC website says this, so you can:
“…The Prahran and Werribee by-elections are being held at the same time. This means you can vote at any voting centre in Prahran or Werribee district from now until election day…”
@Redistributed, the voter turnout for Como, Greville and South Yarra wards in the Stonnington City Council elections varied from just under 68 per cent to 70 per cent.
In theory, turnout at a State by-election should be higher. In practice, it may not be, so a ‘low 60s’ turnout is possible.
@Ben , the timeclock for when comments was posted is showing AEST not AEDT times.
@rob i believe Raue is based in Qld?at very least its based on QLD time
@redistributed yes
Sam Hibbins noticeably built up a personal vote over time, possibly to the extent that even Labor or Liberal voters would vote for him because of him, rather than the party. Maybe people thought the Labor and Liberal candidates were uninspiring. I posted earlier that when an MP resigns due to a scandal, there might be a sense of despair and annoyance caused by a by-election. This would cause a swing away from the departing member’s party. The scandal may have been forgotten about as news broke out back in November.
On the topic of adhearance to HTV cards, preference distributions tend to be quite disorganised and inconsistent amongst voters of independents and micro parties with generic names. I can offer two possible explanations:
1. Apathetic or protest votes. They’re looking for somewhere to park their vote.
2. Micro parties and independents are unable field 5 or more volunteers per booth like the major parties, the Greens or independents in winnable seats. This might be different for a by-election for parties like FFP, AJP, SAP and LBT as their supporters or volunteers can travel into Prahran from outside.
There generally is a solid distribution of preferences from AJP to Greens and from FFP to Liberals. AJP votes flow to Labor generally but not that strongly.
@Votante I calculated the 2022 Federal overlay result in Prahran a few years ago to be around 27-31% (depending on how you treat early and postal votes)
It would certainly give credence to the idea that Hibbins had a sizable personal vote, especially considering that the Greens did about 2.2% better statewide at the Federal Election compared to the 2022 State election
On Thursday 6 February, 1,471 voted early in Prahran compared to 2.962 in Werribee.
This brings total early votes to 9,136 in Prahran and 19.526 in Werribee.
So far, the VEC has received 4,788 postal votes in Prahran and 3,739 in Werribee, the latter being lower because they were mailed out later by the VEC.
If this seat is a traditional Left/right contest with the Greens taking the place of Labor, I think Labor would be very happy with Liberal win. It would mean the polling shift is a more general one rather than concentrated in the outer suburbs, the latter of which would make some currently very safe seats pretty marginal.
I will be honest, nothing would really surprise me here from a comfortable Green Retain to a small Liberal win to an upset independent win (but not Tony Lupton!).
I don’t think it impossible that a lot of votes end up with one of the indies before preferences flow to Green/Lib which could get them to the top two. Sort of like the GVT snowball effect. Unlikely, but not out of the question.
The reason I’d rule out any IND gain is simply because I can’t really see any scenario in which both the Liberals and Greens get less than a 33% primary vote in Labor’s absence.
I think even if Labor ran, the Liberals were already going to increase to around 35% but probably a bit more now; and the Greens vote is unlikely to go backwards at all when there is no Labor candidate for them to swing to (and a 26% Labor vote that needs to find a home), let alone by more than 3%.
So even if the IND preferences all did fly around to other INDs before making it to the two majors, it’s highly unlikely that there would be any more than a maximum of 30% to go around (I’d guess it’ll be closer to 20%).
@trent the lack of labor candidate wont effect the 2cp. it will be a lib v grn battle either way. labor didnt run because cant win they know this and thats why they didnt want to waste the resources. the lack of a labor candidate will benefit the libs due to 2 factors.
1. no labor party sending preferences to the Greens
2. former lab member Lupton is preferencng the Libs.
this means Labor voters will have to choose for themselves wihtout being told what to do. so i reckon the libs will gain ground but i cant say by how much we should know by tomorrow evening.
@John, yeah I wasn’t talking about that.
I was responding to MLV’s comment that an IND could potentially win if the preferences from non LIB/GRN voters all went to an IND before making it to LIB/GRN changing who’s in the 2CP.
And I was saying that won’t happen because you only need 33% to be guaranteed to make the 2CP, and I can’t see either the Liberals or Greens not getting that on primary vote let alone after 1 or 2 exclusions.
I think everyone here, myself included, already agrees that the lack of a Labor candidate helps the Liberals and that’s why everyone is predicting a much bigger 2CP swing than what would occur if Labor were running.
Not saying you are wrong Trent, just that I can forsee a lot more volatility in this election. The most likely outcome is any loss of Hibbins personal vote is offset by some if not all of the ex ALP vote coming back to the Greens, but I certainly can’t rule out that both Greens go down and Libs don’t gain, and say the Tealish indi gets both a reasonable first preference vote and gathers a lot of second/third prefs which gets her close if not into the final 2. Unlikely, but if I could get 15s about one of the indi’s winning I would take it.