Cause of by-election
Sitting independent MP Sam Hibbins, until recently a member of the Greens, resigned after recently quitting his party due to the revelation of an affair with a staff member.
Margin – GRN 12.0% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sam Hibbins, since 2014.
Geography
Inner southern Melbourne. Prahran covers the suburbs of Prahran, South Yarra and Windsor and parts of St Kilda and St Kilda East.
History
Prahran has been a state electorate since 1889. It has alternated between the ALP and conservative parties, before falling to the Greens in 2014.
The ALP first won the seat in 1894, holding it until 1900. Liberal MP Donald Mackinnon held the seat from 1900 to 1920. The ALP and conservative parties alternated in control until the 1930s, with the Liberal Party holding the seat until 1945.
In 1945, the ALP’s William Quirk won the seat, holding it until his death in November 1948. The ensuing by-election in 1949 was won by Frank Crean, who had previously held the seat of Albert Park. He left the seat in 1951 when he moved to the federal seat of Melbourne Ports. He served as a federal MP until 1977, playing a senior role in the Whitlam Labor government.
The 1951 Prahran by-election was won by the ALP’s Robert Pettiona, who held the seat until his defeat in 1955.
Since 1955, Prahran has been won by the ALP only four times. In 1955, the seat was won by Sam Loxton, a Liberal candidate. Loxton was a former test cricketer who had been part of Don Bradman’s Invincibles team and played VFL football for St Kilda.
Loxton held the seat until 1979, when the ALP’s Bob Miller won the seat. He held the seat for two terms, and in 1985 unsuccessfully contested the Legislative Council province of Monash.
The Liberal Party’s Don Hayward won the seat in 1985. He had previously held the upper house seat of Monash from 1979 to 1985. He served as Member for Prahran until the 1996 election.
In 1996, the Liberal Party’s Leonie Burke won Prahran. Burke was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Tony Lupton. Lupton was re-elected in 2006.
In 2010, Lupton was defeated by Liberal candidate Clem Newton-Brown.
Prahran produced an unusual result in 2014, with the third-placed Greens candidate Sam Hibbins overtaking both Labor and Liberal candidates to win narrowly.
Hibbins was re-elected in 2018, again coming third on primary votes and then overtaking Labor and Liberal to win.
Hibbins gained a sizeable primary vote swing in 2022, with Labor reduced to a clear third place, and he also increased his majority after preferences.
Hibbins resigned from the Greens in November 2024 due to the revelation of a previous affair with a staff member.
- Nathan Chisholm (Independent)
- Rachel Westaway (Liberal)
- Janine Hendry (Independent)
- Geneviève Gilbert (Family First)
- Alan Menadue (Independent)
- Tony Lupton (Independent)
- Mark Dessau (Libertarian)
- Angelica Di Camillo (Greens)
- Dennis Bilic (Sustainable Australia)
- Buzz Billman (Independent)
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice
Assessment
Prahran has effectively two different axes on which competition takes place – between Labor and Greens to be the leading progressive party, and between those parties and the Liberal Party on the two-candidate-preferred count. The race was close on both axes in 2014. In 2018 the Liberal Party wasn’t competitive but Labor and Greens were still close. In 2022, Hibbins won easily on both.
This seat could be competitive on either axis in Hibbins’ absence, particularly considering the circumstances of his departure.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sam Hibbins | Greens | 14,286 | 36.4 | +8.1 |
Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 12,198 | 31.1 | -1.6 |
Wesa Chau | Labor | 10,421 | 26.6 | -3.9 |
Alice Le Huray | Animal Justice | 1,263 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
Ronald Emilsen | Family First | 626 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
Alan Menadue | Independent | 449 | 1.1 | +0.8 |
Informal | 1,223 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Sam Hibbins | Greens | 24,334 | 62.0 | +3.0 |
Matthew Lucas | Liberal | 14,909 | 38.0 | -3.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Greens topped the primary vote in all three areas, with a vote ranging from 39.1% in hte north to 45.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18% in the south to 29.2% in the north. Labor’s primary vote ranged from 24.5% in the centre to 29.6% in the south, and outpolling Liberal in the south.
The Greens two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party ranged from 64% in the north to 76.3% in the south.
Voter group | GRN prim | LIB prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
North | 39.1 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 64.0 | 5,206 | 13.3 |
Central | 43.9 | 26.3 | 24.5 | 68.3 | 3,879 | 9.9 |
South | 45.5 | 18.0 | 29.6 | 76.3 | 2,865 | 7.3 |
Pre-poll | 35.4 | 32.7 | 26.6 | 61.1 | 18,980 | 48.3 |
Other votes | 30.5 | 35.2 | 26.9 | 56.5 | 8,357 | 21.3 |
Election results in Prahran at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs Liberal) and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal Party and Labor.
‘The Australian’ features food and beverage wholesalers blaming Labor for significant electricity price rises. Part is being passed on to clients.
Many young Prahran electorate renters only live in the area for three or four years, if that, later moving out to buy an apartment elsewhere, marry, or move in with a boyfriend/girlfriend.
They may not be that interested in politics but vaguely know Labor is in government Federally and in Victoria, so price rises can be blamed on it. The Liberal Party is the obvious alternative.
Some will have missed the December cutoff date to (re)enrol in Prahran, adding to predictions of a low turnout when compared to the number of residents, as well as the percentage enrolled.
“They may not be that interested in politics…”
That’s a pretty big stretch. Prahran is not an electorate of low-information voters who the Liberal Party can sucker like they might elsewhere.
The young renters in Prahran are largely educated younger professionals who are well-informed and tend very much Green.
pretty big field here. wouldnt be surprised if the greens lose this but id say grn retain atm.
I agree with Expat, Prahran isn’t a “low information” electorate. It’s an electorate of generally well educated young professionals who rent but are politically engaged and lean Green. It does also have a lot of less educated renters – for example a lot of hospitality workers – but they in particular are also a very Green/progressive leaning demographic.
Given this is pretty much exactly the demographic that even nationally is most likely to support the Greens and least likely to support the Liberals, I wouldn’t agree that “the Liberals are the obvious alternative” to this particular cohort experiencing cost of living pressures. The Greens more likely are, especially since the entire focus of their campaign has pretty much exclusively been on cost of living, whereas the focus of the Liberals’ campaign has been crime.
To an early-20s renter, even a “low information” one (I would probably say especially a “low information” one), seeing a campaign promoting rent caps & 50c public transport is going to resonate more than one promoting COL relief through cutting red tape for businesses.
Regarding enrolment, Prahran’s enrolment has grown since 2022 and I think the council elections only recently happening in late October would probably have mitigated some of the potential enrolment issues because VEC enrolment applies to both.
As I’ve said, there are no doubt a lot of factors that are working against the Greens here: a big budget coordinated attack campaign against them, an ex-Labor MP running in the absence of Labor and supporting the Liberal Party, and the usual issues that come with a byelection including that even the word ‘Prahran’ can possibly make voters in St Kilda (the Greens’ best area) not even realise they need to vote.
All this will equate to a pretty hefty swing against them, but moreso than I think would occur if Labor were running.
But when you think that the demographics of the seat so heavily favour the Greens, with the average Prahran voter having a profile that according to recent polling, has primary Greens support that is +19 compared to the national average and Liberal 2PP support that is -18 compared to the national average, it’s hard to imagine that 2CP swing will be over 12%.
I am tipping an 8-9% 2CP swing from the Greens, but a Greens hold with a 3-4% 2CP margin.
When I say the ‘average Prahran voter having a profile’ I’m referring to an 18-34 year old female according to Redbridge’s polling, which has Greens support at +19 compared to the national figure, and the Liberal 2PP at -18 compared to the national figure.
Obviously not saying all of Prahran’s overall result will be anything close to that! Just that the median Prahran voter has a similar profile to that.
Even without “rent caps”, Victoria has already seen an exodus of investors from rental housing. The 120 or so new rules Labor brought in have been a contributor.
“Rent caps” never work.
Investors would desert rental housing in droves and instead plough funds into stockmarket ETFs, the ASX generally, government bonds, investment accounts and perhaps (if not also highly regulated) commercial and industrial property. This would create a shortage of rental properties.
Rents have already started to decline, as per media articles.
The Greens can spruik anything, but voters know the Greens st state level are unlikely to formally be part of a government. Even if they were, the majority in government wouldn’t accept every Greens policy.
As for 50 cent public transport fares, James and Joan Taxpayer have to fund this. Voters know Victoria’s debt is already staggeringly high and set to increase further. A ratings downgrade is possible.
Many travellers, especially on trams and buses, fare evade.
To Saturday night 1 February, only 4.306 early votes had occurred in Prahran, compared with more than 9,000 in Werribee according to the VEC.
Werribee has about 16 per cent more enrolled electors than Prahran, but even allowing for that, it’s a very low turnout in Prahran.
Perhaps Prahran will have a huge late rush of early voters until 1800 hours on Friday 7 February, or a big turnout at the booths on Saturday 8, but the signs are not good.
Low turnout will increase Rachel Westaway’s chance of snaring Prahran for the Liberal Party.
The old logic is that the angry voters come out first, so seeing Werribee’s numbers higher would perhaps encourage the Liberals – I doubt it’s Labor’s battlers coming out early to get their vote in.
As for Prahran I guess it’s a short campaign and not getting such great attention, if I was a voter I’d likely be waiting until the day to make my final call.
To Saturday 1 February, 2,324 postal votes had been received by the VEC compared to only 252 in Werribee.
The latter probably reflects how Werribee voters have had later notice of the by-election, so Werribee may catch up.
Postal votes should favour the Liberal Party in Prahran, so it’s encouraging that a substantial number have already been recorded. These must be received by 14 February to be admitted to the count, so still plenty of time to vote by post.
They are all valid arguments, and while I may not agree with all of it, there’s a legitimate debate about the pros & cons and potential side effects of those policies.
What I’m talking about though isn’t what may be the most effective policy, but in the context of this byelection campaign what is going to resonate more with a 20-something year old renter struggling with rent increases & cost of living pressures?
A campaign that has very directly hammered a message of 50c public transport and ending unlimited rent increases; or a campaign that (hidden among its mostly negative messages) promises tax cuts to business?
This is where even if they do blame Labor for cost of living pressures (the disengaged ones might, the more politically engaged ones probably not), I don’t agree that most young, progressive inner-city types would be more likely to see the Liberals as the “obvious alternative” to Labor than the Greens.
There’s also the Greens’ free childcare policy which is very popular among young families too. Most of the owner-occupiers living in terrace houses in my street, including us, have small children and have or will soon benefit from federal Labor’s childcare subsidy and state Labor’s free kindergarten – both of which combined are probably the most significant COL relief, literally hundreds of $$ a week saved – and most support the Greens’ free childcare policy as well.
Again, debating the merits of those policies is one thing, but I can tell you that among the 35-45 year old mortgage holders with young children I know who live in the seat, they are very popular policies.
@Rob – Nominations only closed and ballot order drawn on 24 January for Werribee. Given 27 January was a public holiday, it means the earliest that postal ballots could even have been sent out for Werribee was only Tuesday last week.
Whereas Prahran’s ballot order was finalised on 17 January, so people probably received their ballot papers in the week of 20-24 January.
That’d be the difference between the Prahran & Werribee numbers for postal votes.
Who said that low information voters supported the liberal party, i think its the other way round. Younger people tend to be less informed about politics (coming from a young person) and are more likely to vote Greens
@up the dragons that statement just about sums up the national green voting base. young and stupid. though more and more elites are joining them.
I don’t think anyone said that low information voters are more likely to vote Liberal, but Rob stated that:
“They may not be that interested in politics but vaguely know Labor is in government Federally and in Victoria, so price rises can be blamed on it. The Liberal Party is the obvious alternative.”
That’s where that discussion arose from. It was more that low information voters are likely to blame Labor for things that are out of Labor’s control.
The two debates that followed were firstly whether or not Prahran is a “low information” electorate (I think most agree it’s not); and secondly whether people who might blame Labor for cost of living pressures are more likely to see the Liberals or Greens as the obvious alternative.
On that second point, I think it’s unrelated to whether or not a voter is “low information” or politically engaged and more about values & demographics. In a traditional ALP v LIB mortgage belt seat, or among an older demographic where Greens support is the lowest and Liberal support is the highest, the Liberals would be the obvious alternative.
But in a seat like Prahran dominated by young, progressive, inner-city renters (the demographic most likely to vote Greens and least likely to vote Liberal), I’d disagree that those voters would naturally see the Liberals as the “obvious alternative” to Labor.
Interesting take, the guy who said that Greens voters are “young and stupid” when on average they’re the voters with the highest level of education.
With regard to “low information voters” – this doesn’t mean stupid, it means disengaged. It also includes e.g. the kind of boomers who get a lot of their news from the Herald Sun at best and “share if you agree” conservative memes on Facebook at worst. There’s a growing amount of statistical research into their voting patterns, and it skews very heavily to the right.
For the record too, I think the demographics of both educated and low information voters in Prahran would usually have a natural lean towards the Greens.
I don’t think the idea of “low information” vs politically engaged or highly educated says anything about a political leaning on its own.
For example: the Liberal Party do very well with executives, managers, business owners and people in occupations such as finance and banking. The Greens do very well with professionals who work in education, science, health and the arts. I’d consider both to be well educated and politically engaged.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Liberal Party do very well with older, less educated, lower information voters in rural and outer suburban areas. The Greens do very well with younger, less educated, lower information voters in inner city areas.
So I don’t think anyone is necessarily suggesting “low information voters” lean Liberal, and my view would be that the demographic profile of the typical “low information” voter in Prahran would be more likely to lean Green.
@Expat I agree. Redbridge’s breakdowns consistently show higher Greens support among university educated professionals, it’s their core demographic.
And I agree that “low information” is more about political engagement. Low information to me is exactly what you describe. People who believe misleading information on social media, or who can’t identify political bias in traditional media.
I don’t think low/high information alone is an indicator of political leaning. Like I say in my message above, there are older boomer types who are low information and more likely to lean conservative because they consume conservative media & social media. There are also young inner-city voters who are low information and politically disengaged, but are more likely to vote Greens because they have appeal to young people, and the Liberal brand would be toxic in their friendship circles.
Agree Trent, it is usually the type of occupation/employment that distinguishes between those who vote for left leaning vs right leaning parties. Those who come from a business/entrepreneurial background (working in the private sector or self-employed) or in primary industries (agriculture, forestry and mining) are likely to vote for the conservative parties whereas those who work in the government/service-based industry sector are more inclined to vote for the progressive leaning parties.
Liberal voters and franked dividends ”
Labor is taking away our dividends…. that is terrible”
Do you own any shares?
No
@Expat , just because young voters may have ‘the highest level of (tertiary) education’ doesn’t necessarily mean that all are wise.
Many people who at a young age voted for regressive parties – such as the Greens: there’s nothing ‘progressive’ about advocating for higher taxes – change their vote to conservative parties later in life, as these individuals benefit from a greater amount of lived experience, raise a family and purchase a house.
Final Prediction: Greens Retain with around 54% 2CP. Angelica Di Camillo will succeed Sam Hibbins in a rapidly-gentrifying electorate. I will admit the Liberals can still win but my money is on the Greens.
That’s pretty much exactly in line with my prediction.
Not ruling out a Liberal gain, because my prediction of a Greens 2CP around 53/54 is certainly within reach of a Liberal gain. But I think a large swing to Liberals that falls short of the 12% required is more likely than a swing of over 12% in a seat that is predominantly young, progressive, professional and renting.
In 2026 with a Labor candidate back in the mix, no Tony Lupton, incumbent Greens MP and in the context of a general election, the Greens will get at least a +5 swing back to them to recover a lot of Hibbins’ margin.
On the other end of the spectrum – not that in any way, shape or form am I predicting this – there’s actually a possibility that the Greens get a primary vote close to 50%.
There is no notable left/progressive competition for 2022 Greens voters to swing away to. With such a crowded field of independents & minors, most of which have pretty much been invisible other than Lupton whose Liberal alliance is now well known, many 2022 Labor voters might just look at the ballot and stick to what they know – choosing between Greens & Liberals – and in 2022, 75% of Labor voters who didn’t follow the HTVC preferenced the Greens.
So, hypothetically, if the Greens hold their 2022 support at around 36%, and roughly half of Labor’s 2022 voters put them first because they simply don’t know who anybody else is, the Greens primary is over 49%.
I’m not predicting that because of many factors working against the Greens, but it’s not an implausible or far-fetched outcome either.
@Trent , it’s a far fetched outcome.
The Greens are responsible for this by-election because it was the behaviour of its MP that resulted in 48,000 voters being dragged to a poll. The majority of the population whose interest in politics is marginal at best resent having to vote, and many will have read of the shenanigans.
My prediction is the Greens’ primary vote will decline below what it achieved at the November 2022 State election, making it extremely hard to retain the seat. Given cost-of-living pressures hitting many Prahran voters hard (including renters and the minority with a mortgage), the Libs’ vote will rise significantly from 2022 levels.
It’s extremely hard to guess what ex-MP Tony Lupton will receive in first preference votes: could be anything from six to 20 per cent.
Trent and Rob, I probably see 40% as the ceiling for the Liberal primary vote. Even with a campaign targeting cost of living issues, this is not favourable territory for the party. The Queensland state seat of Maiwar, which covers very similar progressive leaning inner suburbs, saw the LNP only record 38% primary vote at the 2024 election (which was considered a fairly strong environment overall).
I think the idea that a significant percentage of Greens voters who generally vote Greens because Labor are not left-wing enough, would totally skip over Labor (in their absence) and switch their vote to the Liberals, is more far fetched than the Greens retaining most of their 2022 support base in the absence of competition from Labor.
And then you have a 26% Labor vote that needs to find a home, to suggest that at least some of those voters also wouldn’t just vote Greens in Labor’s absence is pretty far-fetched as well.
It’s difficult to see how, with a 26% Labor vote that needs to find a home and no Labor candidate competing for the Greens/left vote, the Greens’ primary vote could possibly fall below its 2022 level.
With Labor not running, both the Liberals & Greens should see a significant increase in their primary vote. It’s plausible that both finish over 40%. If anything the Greens are more likely to as they have less competition for the left-wing vote, are only 3.6% away from 40% already, and 75% of Labor voters preference the Greens over the Liberals.
Like I said, I’m not predicting a Greens primary vote near 50% or saying it’s likely, but I’d say it’s less far-fetched than the Greens’ primary vote going backwards when there’s a 26.6% Labor vote up for grabs and no Labor competition on the ballot.
@Yoh An, yeah I predict the Liberal vote will be in the high-30s especially with Tony Lupton probably eating into it a little bit since Lupton & Westaway are almost running as a duo with the backing of the same group.
Probably agree Trent, I think the numbers (primary votes) would be something like this:
Greens 45%
Liberal 40%
Lupton 10%
Others 5%
Depending on the preference flows from Lupton and the others, this could translate to a very narrow Liberal victory of 51-52% 2PP.
@Yoh An, I think those primary vote numbers are probably close to the ballpark but doubt the 15% Others would flow as strongly as 11-4 to the Liberals, despite Lupton’s HTVC, especially when the field includes a teal (who put the Libs last), an ex-Greens IND and AJP who usually get around 2-3%.
Even with Lupton’s preferences, only 30% of Labor voters followed the HTVC in 2022, I imagine it’ll be less for Lupton voters.
If he gets 10% they probably wouldn’t split much more than 6-4 to the Libs which would already have be 49 GRN to 46 LIB prior to the other 5% which would likely be more favourable to the Greens.
But I’d guess the Greens, Liberal and Lupton primary votes will all be 1-2% less than those estimates, while the “Other” will be more like 9-10%.
I think Lupton preferences will flow around 60% to Libs and Others around 50-60% to Greens, which would probably equate to around 53% Greens 2CP which is my prediction.
I’m expecting a lower turnout which will hurt the Greens and definitely play into the Liberals favour, I’m writing this seat off for either the Greens or Liberals.
I don’t think Lupton will have any significant impact on this race, and certainly not his preferences. Very few minor party and independent voters (less than 10% of that candidate’s voters) follow the how-to-vote card.
I don’t think the Liberals will be rebounding here as much as they would in less of an inner-city seat, so I can’t see this falling. I expect a margin above 5% too, probably somewhere between 55-60 2PP.
Honestly preferences will probably spray around close to 50/50.
The Greens really just need to get a higher primary vote than the Liberals and they should retain. They already have a +5 headstart on that, and there’s a 26.6% Labor vote that needs a home and 3/4 of Labor voters (when not following a HTV) prefer the Greens over the Liberals.
I’m tempering my expectations to a 3-4% margin to take into account possible factors like low turnout and all the money and resources being pumped into a coordinated anti-Greens campaign, but I do feel it’s a conservative estimate and a margin over 5% like I originally predicted wouldn’t surprise me either (nor would a primary vote over 45%).
On Tony Lupton, I’m not sure why the media seems to think some 60+ year old white guy who most voters in the seat wouldn’t even remember being an MP (most would have still been in school!) is going to be some sort of decisive kingmaker. Most people will think “Who’s this guy?” and keep walking. He’ll attract some support mostly from 55+ Labor & Liberal voters who wouldn’t have voted for or preferenced the Greens anyway, and not much else.
@Trent , why is Mr Lupton being a ‘white’ guy relevant?
Is there anything wrong with being a ’60+…white guy’? He might actually have some wisdom at that age.
If anyone else referred to the characteristics of others who wasn’t Caucasian, they’d be shouted down, accused of being racist and so on.
You don’t seem to understand that Lupton’s presence means there’s a good chance that far fewer ‘Labor’ voters will preference the Greens, and that it could well mean the Greens lose the seat on Saturday. Coupled with the unusual circumstances in which the by-election had to be called, it’s not necessarily the happy hunting ground for the Greens it has been for the last decade.
‘wasn’t should be ‘weren’t’ above. Once submitted, one can’t edit.
@Spacefish , your prediction of a lower turnout is on the money. It will disadvantage the Greens.
There’ve been low numbers at early voting centres compared to what’s occurring in Werribee.
My point isn’t that he’s “white”. It’s that the fact he was the Labor MP from 2002-10 is meaningless to most voters in the seat who wouldn’t have lived there at the time, wouldn’t know or remember who he is, and probably weren’t even old enough to vote yet.
And, similar to the issues that had been discussed around the Liberal candidate in Werribee, he’s probably not a good for the demographics of the seat. I’m not saying there is anything wrong with being 60+ or white, but if a young voter has no idea whatsoever that he has any association with Labor or is a former MP, why would he be any more of a viable option to them than any of the other independents?
I’m saying I don’t know why the media is acting like he’s going to get most of the Labor vote (over 20%) and make or break the result. He could get 6% and his preferences split 50/50 and all that will do is maybe add 1-2% to the Liberals’ 2CP.
And if his vote is drawn mostly from an over 55 demographic who already share his anti-Greens views, which have been the entire focus of his campaign and social media presence, then that would actually have very little impact on the Greens’ result at all because he’s mostly attracting voters who wouldn’t have voted for or preferenced them anyway.
In 2022, if we break down the results more by preference patterns:
36.4% put the Greens first
31.1% put the Liberals first
8.0% put Labor fist and followed the HTVC (Greens above Libs)
14.0% put Labor first, didn’t follow the HTVC and put the Greens above Libs
4.6% put Labor first, didn’t follow the HTVC and put the Libs above Greens
3.6% voted for others and put the Greens above Libs
2.3% voted for others and put the Libs above Greens
I think it’s safe to assume that Lupton’s most reliable source of support will be the 4.6% who put Labor first, didn’t follow the HTVC, and put the Libs above Greens. So, that cohort will have no impact on the Greens’ 2CP result this time.
His next most likely source of support is the 8% who followed Labor’s HTVC. But he won’t get all of that, he will get some of that, and that will contribute to a Greens v Liberals swing. But that might be about 2% or something. I predict Tony Lupton’s final result will be in 6-9% range.
I feel like your analysis Rob is based a lot more on your own political bias and how you feel voters SHOULD vote, rather than just on the maths. I make no secret of being a Greens supporter, but I’m trying to make realistic predictions actually based on numbers & demographics (and by doing so am predicting an 8-9% swing against the party of my choice so I’m hardly being biased).
I just feel like your prediction that the Greens primary vote will actually go backwards from 36.4% when there is no Labor candidate is completely unrealistic and based on your own political preference rather than any rational analysis. 63% of voters in Prahran put Greens or Labor first in 2022. What you are effectively predicting by saying the Greens will only get <36% of that, is that 27% of total voters from 2022 will swing from "left" candidates to "right" candidates. I'm sorry, but a 27% left to right swing in Prahran is completely absurd.
Agree Trent, also in response to Rob about the low turnout rate – this is normal for an inner-city type district where the left leaning vote (mostly to the Greens) is high because those type of voters are more likely to turn out on the day rather than vote pre-poll or postal, which is seen more for the conservative/Liberal leaning voters.
Also in general, prepoll votes are lower for byelections than general elections.
There is also usually a higher postal vote rate, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the additional postal votes favour conservatives, because without ‘Absent’ voting in byelections the difference is most likely explained by people knowing they will be away.
For example a 14% postal rate at a general election vs a 19% postal rate at a byelection, probably means the additional 5% are more like what would have been absent or early votes. So while overall they still lean conservative, an increase in postal votes for a byelection doesn’t necessarily indicate a swing to conservatives, for that reason.
Warrandyte:
2022 election: 46% early / 35% ordinary / 14% postal.
2023 byelection: 35% early / 45% ordinary / 19% postal.
Warrandyte’s results support there being more ordinary & postal but less early votes for a byelection.
@Trent , if your point wasn’t that Tony Lupton was “white”, why did you choose to specifically mention that?
@Yoh An , there is disinterest in Prahran about this by-election. Compare the high numbers early voting in Werribee to low numbers in Prahran.
Yesterday (Tuesday 4 February) only 922 voted early in Prahran. This compares to 2,193 in Werribee. More than double, despite Werribee (in round figures) only having about 15 per cent more enrolled voters than Prahran.
I think Trent that you are pricing in other options too low.
One is a significant personal vote for Hibbins. Kevin Bonham showed I think a 12% primary vote increase for Hibbins from 2014 to 2022. While I have no doubt some of that is generic Greens increase, at least some of that will be a personal vote which is up for grabs. I would think most will flow back in preferences
The other is will the Labor vote flow to the Greens despite the preference flows you flag above. I think we have a couple of examples recently where Labor haven’t run in by elections and the Labor – Greens flow has been negligible to non existent. Noting that the demographics of this seat are very different, I would also think the Labor voters who are left here are likely to be at least indifferent to the Greens.
Noting those, I would think a Greens primary of 30% or so is at least as likely as a 45%.
I would also be curious to know what the ‘fail to follow the HTV’ looks like. Is it
a) Mostly following the HTV but putting say an indi above the Greens
b) ALP 1 Greens 2 then all over the shop
c) All over the shop
If most are a or b then there is a real chance the flows you have above won’t appear as the voters are really following the HTV, if it is c then they are likely to flow as you have prophesised above.
without Labor running here the Libs might have a chance because
1) therer is no labor HTV pushing votes to greens
2 ) the former labor member who is runnign as an independent has done a deal with the Libs
Werribee not only has 15% higher enrolment, but also had a 20% higher early voting rate in 2022 than Prahran too.
Yes even with both of those factors compounded, Prahran is still dragging its feet compared to Werribee. I just think you’re overstating what the impact will be.
When you factor in Werribee’s higher enrolment, higher rate of early voting in 2022, the fact that Prahran already had lower turnout baked into the Greens’ 2022 margin anyway, and then what you’re really applying there is only an assumption that lower turnout will favour the Liberals (which I agree it will, but by what factor?), we’re probably talking about a small % being shaved off the Greens’ 2CP due to turnout.
When I say “by what factor?”, what I mean is that it’s not like 100% of voters turning out won’t be Greens voters. Just like 100% of postal voters aren’t Liberal voters. If you look at something like postal votes, if postal votes have a 10% skew to the Liberals and they increase by 5%, you’re looking at 10% of 5% so basically an 0.5% impact. It’s similar here with the turnout argument. We’re talking percentages of percentages.
And most importantly, that lower turnout has already been factored into pretty much everybody’s prediction anyway.
I feel like your arguments have been very “absolute”. And on that topic, your response to the point about Tony Lupton being white. You’re seeing that as a black & white statement on his race. It’s not, Angelica Di Camillo is white too, and Sam Hibbins was a white man as well.
What I’m clearly referring to is in the context of all the other factors, the overall package of a 67 year old white man is relevant to the perception many progressive young people (which Prahran is full of) have that parliament is too dominated by “old white men” and that’s how he presents. I can’t make this any clearer. I am not saying there is anything wrong with being white. Or male. Or 67.
I am objectively stating purely from a psephological perspective, removing all personal biases, that when presented with the option of a Thai woman, a 26 year old white/Italian woman, and a 67 year old white/Anglo man, the latter is likely to have the least appeal among the demographic that were most likely to have voted or even preferenced the Greens in 2022 anyway.
And conversely, the demographic most likely to support Tony Lupton, are probably the least likely to have voted Greens in 2022 anyway.
So back to the point of assuming the impact of everything is absolute – eg. 10% support for Lupton will mean close to a 10% hit to the Greens – I’m arguing that a lot of the factors being discussed are probably already baked into the previous results, and what we’re talking about is shaving 1-2% here & there off the margins.
Which will add up, and is why I am predicting an 8-9% swing away from the Greens, because of those factors adding up.
One thing with Lupton’s campaign is that while his campaign is vigorously anti-Green on the booths his vollies have not adhered to that at all, and are quietly trying to portray him as a generic Labor candidate.
On one hand it might improve his primary, on the other the fact that his ground campaign doesn’t mention the Greens much probably means he won’t be directing preferences away from them very effectively.
@indricothere , on polling booths, volunteers don’t have much time (if any) to give voters a verbal message, especially if there’s 11 candidates.
It more comes down to ‘if one votes for candidate X, does one follow his or her HTV card?’
Lupton has a guide as to how he wants preferences distributed, unlike a number of the other small party or independent candidates.
id say most of the ind or small parties dont want to be seen taking sides as to not discourage people voting for them
@Trent, your claim that many factors are ‘baked into the previous results’ fails to take account of this being a by-election. It isn’t a normal last Saturday in November State election. By-elections are an opportunity to send a message to the government of the day without the ‘threat’ of one’s vote changing who sits on the Treasury benches.
@Mostly Labor Voter , interesting point about the range of Greens first preference votes being 30 to 45 per cent. I believe it’ll be lower than at the 2022 election, but can’t say by how much. Agree that @Trent is too confident with his predictions for the Greens 2PP vote.
@john, it was probably a smart move for the Principal of a local high school who’s running as an “independent” not to indicate preferences on his HTV, as doing so may have annoyed some of his school’s parents or teachers.
@Rob, I am factoring the byelection factor in too. In fact I’m insulted that people here think I haven’t factored everything in.
I have factored in everything from the byelection factor, loss of incumbency, cause of byelection, general ALP to LIB swing suggested in polling, expected lower turnout for Greens, the Lupton factor, lack of Labor HTVCs, all of that.
Let me just make clear, because I think people here are thinking I’m predicting some kind of big Greens win:
– I have said countless times that I am not ruling out a Liberal gain;
– My prediction is a very large 8-9% swing away from the Greens as where it will likely fall;
– I have NOT predicted a 45% Greens primary vote (said it’s a possibility on the high end)
What I think some people are doing though, is just slightly overestimating the factors I listed above, because they are neglecting to considering offsetting factors and portions of those factors that may already be factored into the current margin (eg. How much of Lupton’s vote will come from people who already put the Libs ahead of the Greens; turnout factor slightly reduced by already low turnout).
I have never said the Libs can’t gain this seat. I have never said it will be a comfortable Greens retain (at least since the very early comments before Labor announced they weren’t running).
What I do disagree with, is that a 30% Greens primary is “just as likely” as a 45% Greens primary. And that is purely based on if you consider the GRN+ALP primary as a bloc, in the absence of Labor running, I simply disagree with MLV’s that the GRN+ALP vote reducing from 63 to 30 (-33) is “just as likely” as the GRN+ALP vote reducing from 63 to 45 (-18).
The reason for this is that for the Greens to finish with 30%, that means almost 100% of the Labor vote has to shift to the right, AND 17% of the Greens vote has to shift to the right.
That is all I’m arguing. I am saying, I think it’s less likely that 100% of Labor voters & 17% of Greens voters will shift to the right, than it is that 1 in 3 Labor voters might vote Greens. That’s all.
And I’m not even predicting that 1 in 3 Labor voters will vote Greens, let me make that abundantly clear. I have never predicted that. I simply said 33% of Labor voters shifting left is more likely than close to 100% of Labor voters (and 17% of Greens voters) shifting right. I wouldn’t have thought that was controversial.
An election with a 36% primary vote for the Greens starting out, needing to find a home for 26% of Labor voters, will not have a 30% Greens primary. This is Prahran, not Broadmeadows. Adjusting for the natural 3/4 of Labor voters which prefer the Greens, historically an underestimate for Prahran, that requires a swing of 25% on primaries. Not on the cards.
Lupton is not going to change the preferred choice of candidate of 26% of voters simply by virtue of his HTV. He is a marginal candidate with minimal volunteer support and almost all voters in Prahran have a pre-existing view of which party they prefer between the Liberals and Greens. It’s the same reason minor party and independent voters in general tend to follow their HTV minimally.
I think by-election hype and media narratives are playing a big role of making this appear and sound like a closer contest than it really is. Ben has had a blog post on preferencing tendencies of Labor candidates based on seats, and inner-city areas like Prahran have very strong Labor-to-Green flows, about as strong as the 80% Green-to-Labor flow. The Liberals need a big Green-to-Liberal swing to win, anything else is simply not going to work.