Upper Hunter – NSW 2023

NAT 0.6%

Incumbent MP
Dave Layzell, since 2021.

Geography
Northern NSW. Upper Hunter covers rural areas to the northwest of Newcastle. It covers all of Cessnock, Dungog, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter local government areas and parts of the Mid-Coast and Maitland council areas. The seat’s major centres are Singleton, Muswellbrook, Scone and Dungog.

Redistribution
Upper Hunter expanded south, taking in parts of the Maitland council area north of the Hunter River and the remainder of the Singleton council area, including Broke. Upper Hunter lost the remainder of Mid-Western council area to Dubbo, and Liverpool Plains council area to Tamworth. These changes cut the Nationals margin from 2.6% to 0.6%.

History
Upper Hunter has existed since 1859, with the exception of a decade around the turn of the century and three terms in the 1920s. It elected a single MP from 1859 to 1880, two MPs from 1880 to 1894, and single-member since 1904. The seat has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since the early 1930s. The last time it was held by the ALP was for six months in 1910.

Sitting Nationalist MP William Cameron died in 1931. Under the coalition agreement between the Nationalist Party and the Country Party, Upper Hunter was allocated as a Nationalist seat. Local Country Party branches supported Malcolm Brown as an independent, without the official support of the party. While the Nationalist candidate won the most primary votes, but Brown won the seat on preferences. After his election he joined the Country Party officially. Brown held the seat until his death in 1939.

The 1939 by-election was won in D’Arcy Rose, also of the Country Party. He held the seat until his retirement in 1959.

Upper Hunter was won in 1959 by Leon Punch. In 1962, he shifted to the seat of Gloucester. A contested preselection saw himself and another Country Party candidate both stand for Gloucester, but Punch won easily. Punch was elected Deputy Leader of the NSW Country Party and became a minister in 1973. In 1975 he was elected leader of the National Country Party, a role he held until his retirement in 1985. He also served as Deputy Premier from 1975 to 1976.

Upper Hunter was won in 1962 by Frank O’Keefe, who had held Liverpool Plains since 1961. His old seat was abolished in the redistribution. O’Keefe held Upper Hunter until 1969, when he resigned and won the federal seat of Paterson. He held Paterson until its abolition in 1984.

Col Fisher won the 1970 by-election. He served as a minister from 1975 to 1976, and retired in 1988.

George Souris held Upper Hunter for the National Party from 1988 until 2015. He served as a minister from 1992 to 1995. He was elected deputy leader of the NSW National Party in 1993, and served as National Party leader from 1999 to 2003.

Nationals candidate Michael Johnsen won Upper Hunter in 2015. He was re-elected in 2019, and resigned in early 2021.

The 2021 by-election was won by Nationals candidate Dave Layzell.

Candidates

  • Tony Lonergan (Greens)
  • James White (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Dave Layzell (Nationals)
  • Dale McNamara (Independent)
  • Peree Watson (Labor)
  • Tom Lillicrap (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Calum Blair (Sustainable Australia)
  • Assessment
    Upper Hunter remains a very marginal seat, and circumstances have changed since the 2021 by-election, but the sitting member may have some benefit of incumbency.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Melanie Dagg Labor 13,900 28.6 -3.9 30.8
    Michael Johnsen Nationals 16,492 34.0 -4.9 29.6
    Lee Watts Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 10,697 22.0 +22.0 18.9
    Tony Lonergan Greens 2,320 4.8 -0.7 5.5
    Mark Ellis Liberal Democrats 2,151 4.4 +4.4 3.9
    Calum Blair Sustainable Australia 1,077 2.2 +2.2 2.3
    Claire Robertson Animal Justice 961 2.0 +2.0 2.2
    Richard Stretton Christian Democrats 927 1.9 -0.2 1.6
    Others 5.1
    Informal 1,701 3.4

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
    Michael Johnsen Nationals 19,341 52.6 +0.4 50.6
    Melanie Dagg Labor 17,456 47.4 -0.4 49.4

    2021 by-election result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Dave Layzell Nationals 14,805 31.2 -2.8
    Jeff Drayton Labor 10,055 21.2 -7.5
    Dale McNamara One Nation 5,845 12.3 +12.3
    Sue Gilroy Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 5,676 12.0 -10.1
    Kirsty O’Connell Independent 4,176 8.8 +8.8
    Tracy Norman Independent 1,951 4.1 +4.1
    Sue Abbott Greens 1,648 3.5 -1.3
    Steven Reynolds Independent 1,027 2.2 +2.2
    Eva Pears Liberal Democrats 698 1.5 -3.0
    Kate Fraser Independent 644 1.4 +1.4
    Michael Dello-Iacovo Animal Justice 397 0.8 -1.1
    Calum Blair Sustainable Australia 375 0.8 -1.4
    Archie Lea Independent 156 0.3 +0.3
    Informal 1,234 2.5

    2021 by-election two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Dave Layzell Nationals 18,484 55.8 +3.3
    Jeff Drayton Labor 14,631 44.2 -3.3

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Upper Hunter have been split along local government boundaries: Upper Hunter, Muswellbrook and Singleton booths have been grouped according to the council area. The Liverpool Plains council area is also grouped together on the by-election results, but is no longer in the seat so is not included in the general election breakdown. The single booth in the Mid-Western council area at the 2021 by-election is combined with Muswellbrook.

    Booths in the Mid-Coast council area are grouped under the name “Gloucester-Stroud”. Polling places in Dungog are grouped together, and combined with Dungog-Maitland on the general election breakdown.

    At the 2019 election, the Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of five areas, ranging from 50.6% in Dungog-Maitland to 61.1% in Upper Hunter. Labor polled 51% in Muswellbrook and 57% in Singleton.

    At the 2021 by-election, the Nationals won the two-party-preferred vote in five out of six areas, ranging from 53.2% in Singleton to 69.2% in Tamworth Plains. Labor polled 61% in Muswellbrook.

    2019 booth breakdown

    Voter group SFF prim NAT 2CP Total votes % of votes
    Singleton 11.7 43.0 8,383 16.1
    Dungog-Maitland 10.4 50.6 7,611 14.6
    Upper Hunter 35.2 61.1 4,945 9.5
    Muswellbrook 23.6 49.0 3,916 7.5
    Gloucester-Stroud 14.4 55.0 2,517 4.8
    Pre-poll 21.0 50.9 17,127 32.8
    Other votes 19.4 52.0 7,647 14.7

    2021 by-election booth breakdown

    Voter group SFF prim ON prim NAT 2CP Total votes % of votes
    Singleton 14.9 17.7 53.2 5,933 12.5
    Upper Hunter 11.4 8.1 60.1 4,605 9.7
    Muswellbrook 10.3 11.1 39.1 4,013 8.5
    Dungog 11.3 8.2 65.8 3,845 8.1
    Gloucester-Stroud 11.5 10.1 65.3 2,712 5.7
    Liverpool Plains 10.6 11.3 69.2 1,777 3.7
    Pre-poll 11.9 13.4 53.5 18,917 39.9
    Other votes 11.7 11.3 59.1 5,651 11.9

    Election results in Upper Hunter at the 2019 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Nationals and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

    Election results at the 2021 Upper Hunter by-election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor, One Nation, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and independent candidate Kirsty O’Connell.

    Become a Patron!

    33 COMMENTS

    1. The Nats got a swing to them in the by-election which improved their margin from 2.56% to 5.82% but this was cut down after the redistribution. My question is how did the margin get so low to 2.56% in the first place for a seat Labor hasn’t held since 1910. Was there another redistribution before 2019 or 2015.

    2. There was a redistribution ahead of the 2015 election, but as far as I can tell the changes to Upper Hunter were relatively minor.

      There was a 21% swing towards Labor in 2015 that made this seat the most marginal it had been since 1971. I still have never seen an explanation for why this happened.

      In 2019, it was expected that this seat would fall. Sportsbet were paying juicy odds for the Coalition to hold. I sensed that punters had had a bit of amnesia about the swing in 2015 and were relying only on the observation that it was one of the most marginal Coalition seats in the state. I was right, although admittedly I was surprised there wasn’t a larger swing back to the Nationals.

    3. North East, the main reason why the National margin in 2PP terms has fallen is because their first preference vote has slipped compared to elections held pre 2010. The Nationals have lost most of their vote to other conservative third parties like SFF and more recently One Nation, with only 5% or less going to Labor.

      Under full preferential voting, the lost vote to minor parties is normally recovered through preferences. But NSW uses optional preferential voting so instead of 70-80% of minor party votes flowing back to the Nationals, only 40-50% will flow instead thus leading to a substantial swing against them in 2PP terms.

    4. Re 2015 result, George Souris retired at that election after holding the seat for 27 years. That would explain a lot of the big swing against the Nats at that time. Make what you will of the calibre of the guy who replaced him, maybe the voters in 2015 saw a bit of what would come to light over the next few years in terms of his suitability for office.

    5. @Nichols, @Yoh An, @Luke Thanks for the info. It seems the removal of a long term incumbent and redistribution has really trimmed the margin here. Although Dave Layzell may be starting to build a personal vote and/or trust with the seat. Am i right in saying the redistribution margin doesn’t take into consideration the by-election, if so then the predicted redistribution margin could be below the actual by-election results.

    6. @ North East I believe there was also a lot of anger towards the state govt’s plans on coal steam gas exploration and coal mining expansion which contributed to the massive 21% swing in 2015.

    7. @Nicholas and @Luke Thanks for the info.

      @Dan M That is very likely a big reason, i believe the loss of a long term incumbent and coal mining expansion is also what cost the Libs Ballina in 2015. I’m a bit surprised about the hostility though considering the seat neighbours Cessnock which correct me if i’m wrong is a coal seat. Isn’t it also part of Hunter federally which is also a coal seat.

    8. This is the last election the ALP will have any chance to gain this seat. With the areas around Muswellbrook & Singleton trending further to the Nationals, Labor needs to sink resources into this seat & run a strong, localised campaign. If Labor can promise state funding for projects such as the Muswellbrook bypass & promise to protect jobs in farming, mining & surrounding sectors, they can secure their position in this area. This is not a useless exercise, if they put resources here early they can hold Hunter in 2025 (which I feel is one of Labor’s most vulnerable seats).

    9. The Upper Hunter by election was a bad result for Labor.. I don’t know if the sitting nat mp will build up a personal vote but on a rerun of 2019.. this is a highly marginal seat.. key areas Singleton and Dungog. Given the circumstances causing the by election the nats should not have won here.. but back then Gladys was popular

    10. Well the Coalition brand is nosediving statewide, so I can get this seat if they want a majority. This is going to be one of 5-10 seats where the margin will be less than 1%.

    11. Labor may have a shot at this. The by-election was during a very different time.
      – It was before the 15-week long lockdown of 2021.
      – Gladys had personal popularity and she hadn’t been called by ICAC.
      – There was a different premier, deputy premier and opposition leader.
      – There were swings to Labor at the federal election in the Hunter parts and Lyne Parts of this state electorate.

      George Souris always got over 60% 2PP and since he retired, the Nats have turned this marginal.

      It may also be tough for Labor despite the slim margin. Dave Layzell can build up his personal following. The OPV may split votes and not all ex-Labor voters will direct their preferences to Labor.

    12. This is difficult to assess if it were an urban seat I would say probable alp win. But there is the small swing in the by-election abot

    13. About 3% and the boundary changes of about 1.5%. The question is does the np member build a personal vote.. I think you would need to be on the ground to see. The Gladys based swing factors do not exist.. this seat is uncertain but I am very unsure.. advantage national party?

    14. I guess there is a margin here of maybe 1.5 to 2%. In similar circumstances I would expect Labor to retain Bega.

    15. This is a seat Labor should win and are likely to win. Takes in safe Labor territory around Branxton/Greta and has a strong candidate. Layzell has done very little to build a personal vote and issues around the Singleton by-pass are likely to hinder.

    16. The interesting dynamic in this seat is the number of candidates. The by-election had 13 candidates, including PHON and three well known INDs. They have now vacated the field, and there is roughly 20% of the vote now up for grabs.

      By my count there will only be around 6 or 7 candidates, so I reckon we see swings to both NAT and ALP on primary votes from the by-election. But I’d imagine more of those ‘up for grabs’ votes go to the Nats rather than Labor, but that’s just a guess.

    17. the real margin is higher considering the 3.3% swing at the by election that means its more safe then advertised

    18. Ben that is the question how much of the by-election swing stays. All or some or none. The by-election was a nat own goal and should have been a loss but the by-election was when Gladys was popular pre sept 22 decline .I look at the federal figures here and they are not good either. I think the result is uncertain here

    19. @ people in rural areas that vote national don’t really care whos running the state in Sydney nationals voters only care that their local mp is looking out for them. The fact he got a swing to him means hes got local support they don’t care if Gladys is premier or Dominic it’s about if the local member is acting for them. Originally I thought it was a labor chance but after looking at the by election I’d say liberal hold by 2-3%

    20. Seems like a huge miss for ONP that they didn’t manage to field a candidate in this division. This division arguably encompass the best base of their support outside of Queensland. Particularly in towns like Muswellbrook and Singleton. I did read that ONP are apparently operating under some agreement with SFF to not field candidates in the same divisions. Would argue that SFF is better suited for the divisions much further in the interior which are more animated by Murray-Darling basin policy. The 2021 by-election also suggested that ONP were slightly more favoured here than SFF.

      Expecting to see a strengthening in Labor first-preferences in Upper Hunter this election with SFF landing shy of 20%. Interesting enough to be toss-up either-way (ALP vs NAT) on election day.

    21. SFF candidate isn’t great, certainly not as good as Sue Gilroy was. Also the ONP candidate at the by-election is running as an IND. I can’t see SFF or IND getting much above 10%.

    22. @SEQ Observer – I think the 2019 results for ONP in the Hunter Valley are not a great indicator of their natural level of support. Around that time the federal candidate for Hunter had run a very long and targeted campaign in mining communities specifically on the issue of labour hire in the mining sector. He won a lot of support from the multi-generational mining families, which probably boosted their vote in the state election. (of note, after 2019, Pauline went on to support the IR policy of the Coalition which was completely at odds with this 2019 position and the 2022 ONP candidate saw a 10% swing against)

      I think ONP support in the Lower Hunter Valley will be about the same as in outer suburban Sydney.

    23. for those interested. there was a huge 21% swing against the Nationals at the 2015 election, in part due to the retirement of George Souris, but also due to environmental concern over coal mining and coal seam gas exploration. Despite the seat’s rural past, Upper Hunter is now also the state’s largest mining electorate, one of the reasons for Labor’s improved performance in the seat. Recent history has shown that the electorate’s two main industries, agriculture and mining, do not always co-exist happily.

    24. SMH reporting that OneNation and SFF have a deal to not run against each other with SFF taking rural seats and ON others
      This mean SFF only for Upper Hunter

    25. @Clyde, I also don’t see an ex-ONP IND receiving very much of the vote. These candidates always egregiously over-estimate how much of a personal profile they developed in their previous campaigning efforts and how much of their vote could be attributed to their personal profile. It really is predominantly the strength of the One Nation brand that carries their campaigns.

      @Darren, accept your point here but I would still expect just shy of 20% of votes to be spread between SFF and similar candidates that field here including Independents.

    26. This seat is completely bonkers at this stage:
      AE Forecast – LAB 2.6%
      SportsBet – NAT $1.80
      TAB – NAT $1.65

      I think the big issue is around who will be finishing 2nd. This is a genuine 3-cornered race that could go anywhere

    27. federal labors live sheep ban will hurt them here the fact the nat increased his margin at the by election is a good sign too

    28. I’m tipping a toss-up with Nats slightly more likely to hold.

      I sense that the ex-ONP IND’s and SFF’s PVs will go down. I agree with SEQ Observer that ex-ONP independent candidates don’t do as well without the party’s profile and they over-estimate their personal popularity. This means less exhausted votes. The Greens PV will go up a bit without AJP running.

      I’m expecting the combined NAT/ALP PV will go up as there’s less vote-splitting and weaker minor party competition. The PV swings to the NAT/ALP will determine the winner.

    29. If there is a huge swing here as well as Monaro, I am going to attribute friendlyjordies and friendlyjordies only.

    LEAVE A REPLY

    Please enter your comment!
    Please enter your name here