Cabramatta – NSW 2023

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  1. If Nick Lalich retires then I suspect Tu Le will run here and win, otherwise could the Mayor of Fairfield (forgot his name) who serves with Dai Le (no relation) on the Fairfield mayoralty/council and recently was elected federal MP for Fowler. There were rumors that he himself could run here, not sure if he still plans on it but if he does this should be a close and key contest.

  2. Agree Daniel, Frank Carbone is popular as Fairfield Mayor and would be a strong candidate if he chooses to run here, especially if Labor pick a weak candidate to replace Lalich if he retires.

  3. Frank Carbone will be a good fit for the Western Part of the seat like Abbotsbury, Bossley Park etc where there is a large Italian Community but in Cabramatta itself there maybe pressure for an Indochinese candidate. Nick Lalic is of Serbian background and in the past there was a large Serbian community around Cabramatta although much of them have now moved to Prestons, Leppington etc

  4. Frank Carbone and Dai Le are really close allies and ran on the same council ticket even though Carbone is ex-Labor and Le is ex-Liberal.

    Frank Carbone considered running in Fowler this year but then chose not to. If he were to run at the state election, he might ride the Dai Le-effect but won’t win emphatically like Dai Le did. For one, he has nowhere near as much electioneering experience as Dai Le (who ran for the state seat three times). Also, he doesn’t have her profile and he doesn’t speak Vietnamese.

  5. @Nimalan, just wanted to drop by and say I’m constantly impressed with your knowledge of demographics and suburb profiles!

  6. It will be interesting to see what happens to the preselections in this seat and the neighbouring ones. Nick Lalich is likely to retire with his age and the Labor MPs will be scrambling for seats after the abolition of one of Lakemba (or Bankstown depending on how you look at it). To make things complicated, Labor would be under pressure to not parachute in someone to avoid the threat of Frank Carbone running.

  7. Do we know if any of the Labor Members will be forced into a seat re-shuffle following the redistribution?

  8. Dan m. Is right one safe Labor seat has been abolished. But it is up to local party members to decide who they want in various seats. The dangers of any musical chairs is the Carbone dai le group who control Fairfield council

  9. @Trent, i have always been fascinated by demographics and how that affects election results. I was always perplexed why Port Melbourne/South Melbourne saw a long term increase in the Liberal vote until recently with gentrification unlike the inner north which you helped me to understand in the Macnmaara thread. Yoh An also helped me to understand Brisbane and its demographics.


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