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The Greens performed extremely well here, I expect them to further cut Labor’s margin here and make it marginal in 2028 but still miss out.
I think the story that is being missed here is that the Liberal PV Crashed and the Greens PV increased. Labor’s vote was stable. It is being spinned as the Labor is doing badly in Fraser. The seat of Fraser was the only electorate in Victoria where the Lib primary actually increased in both 2019 and 2022. The state seat of St Albans which is almost entirely in Fraser was seen as a Liberal target in 2026.
@Nimalan also one of the reasons why the Liberal vote tanked was because the original candidate (Luan Walker) withdrew just before nomination because of section 44 (he was a dual citizen and couldn’t get it renounced in time) and Sanish Patel was a last-minute candidate with literally zero promotion and publicity, unlike Huong Truong who was everywhere and Daniel Mulino also went on the hustings more often than expected for an expected Labor stronghold.
I expect this seat to be ALP vs GRN for the foreseeable future but Labor are still very strong around St Albans and Sunshine without a strong Liberal contender.
@ Tommo9
I agree it will be an ALP V GRN seat for foreesable future it is gentrified than Wills or Cooper so i think gap between ALP and GRN will be wider so unless Libs decide to preference Greens i see this has a Labor hold. Palestine would be less of an issue here as there are more Buddhists than Muslims.
When you get a chance have a look at the Wills thread i replied to you 🙂