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The Liberals are in a very bad position here. If there’s a primary vote swing against Labor, an independent wins the seat. At the moment, on the 3CP, the gap between Sue Chapman and Labor is just under 1%.
The Liberals would need upwards of 40% of the Primary vote to hold the seat, they’re well under 35% here.
The Labor brand seems likely to come to a cross-roads in WA at some point where state Labor wants to continue to prosper off the back of the resources industry whilst Federal Labor looks to become more militant in the net zero roll-out. With Basil performing reasonably well and Hastie floating around as a leadership contender I think the green shoots of Liberal recovery are appearing in WA, 2025 was probably the time to nab this seat with it being empty but unless the brand somehow continues to deteriorate they should be fine here