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This seat is an absolute embarrassment for the Libs. Mary Doyle maintained her by-election margin in a seat that nearly everyone wrote off for Labor. A strong candidate will be needed for the Libs to win this back. Gone are the days that this seat had a 10+% margin. Despite increasing affluence in this seat, it is also becoming more diverse and resembling nearby Chisholm especially Glen Waverley. Voting patterns reflect this. The Libs won’t be able to think of forming even a minority government without winning this seat back. Alarm bells should have been ringing within the Libs about Dutton’s electability when they lost this seat in the by-election.
Dutton was on track to win this back at the general election until the disaster of the campaign. The by election loss can be attributed to the loss of the sitting members personal vote, the liberal parachute and the fact labor was up in the polls at that point.