Leichhardt – Australia 2022

LNP 4.2%

Incumbent MP
Warren Entsch, since 2010. Previously Member for Leichhardt 1996-2007.

Geography
Far North Queensland. Leichhardt covers the Cape York Peninsula and the east coast of Australia as far south as Cairns. While the seat covers a vast area, most of the population is in the area around Cairns.

History
Leichhardt was first created at the 1949 election. Apart from the 2010 election, the seat has been won by the party of government at every election since 1972.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Tom Gilmore of the Country Party, who was defeated by the ALP’s Henry Bruce in 1951. Bruce held the seat until his death shortly before the 1958 election, when he was succeeded by Bill Fulton.

Fulton held the seat until his retirement at the 1975 election. David Thomson won the seat for the National Country Party in 1975, and served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1979 until his defeat at the 1983 election, when John Gayler (ALP) won the seat.

Gaylor held the seat until his retirement in 1993, and the ALP’s Peter Dodd held the seat for one term before he was defeated by Warren Entsch (LIB) in 1996.

Entsch held the seat for eleven years before retiring in 2007, when a swing of over 14% gave the seat to the ALP’s Jim Turnour.

In 2010, Entsch returned to politics and won his seat back off Turnour with a swing of 8.6%, and he has been re-elected three more times.

Candidates

  • Pat O’Shane (Socialist Alliance)
  • Silvia Mogorovich (Informed Medical Options)
  • Warren Entsch (Liberal National)
  • Rod Jensen (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Adam Cropp (Fusion)
  • Susanne Bayly (Animal Justice)
  • Phillip Musumeci (Greens)
  • Daniel Hannagan (United Australia)
  • Geena Court (One Nation)
  • Paul Roe (Federation)
  • Elida Faith (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Leichhardt is a very marginal seat and Labor has a real shot at winning. The seat has usually moved in line with Queensland, but did not swing in 2019 when the state swung towards the LNP. Four seats immediately to the south of Leichhardt were very marginal in the past and have swung hard towards the LNP but Leichhardt looks different to those races. Coal is not a big issue in Leichhardt as it is in Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn and Herbert. It now remains the sole LNP marginal in rural Queensland.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Warren Entsch Liberal National 33,75337.6-1.9
    Elida Faith Labor 25,84628.8+0.7
    Gary Oliver Greens 9,34010.4+1.6
    Daniel MccarthyKatter’s Australian Party7,3188.2+3.9
    Ross MacdonaldOne Nation5,4286.0-1.5
    Jen SackleyUnited Australia Party3,5624.0+4.0
    Chad AndersonIndependent2,5622.9+2.9
    Jo AshbyConservative National Party1,9762.2+2.2
    Informal6,1606.4-0.9

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Warren Entsch Liberal National 48,63854.2+0.2
    Elida Faith Labor 41,14745.8-0.2

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Cairns council area have been split into north, central and south Cairns. Polling places in the Douglas council area have been grouped, and the remainder have been grouped as Cape York. Most of the population is in Cairns.

    The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of five areas, with small majorities in northern Cairns and southern Cairns, and a bigger majority in Douglas. Central Cairns was a tie while Labor polled over 60% on Cape York. Entsch also won a massive 57.3% majority in the pre-poll vote, which made up almost 40% of the vote.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 6.3% in Cape York to 14.6% in northern Cairns.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Cairns North14.652.712,91713.0
    Cairns Central12.950.011,19911.2
    Cairns South9.153.97,5667.6
    Cape York6.339.54,8864.9
    Douglas13.956.23,2693.3
    Pre-poll9.057.339,16239.3
    Other votes9.455.210,78610.8

    Election results in Longman at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    55 COMMENTS

    1. Liberal party should hold on here as Warren Entsch is quite popular, however if labor are having a good night they could pick this up.

    2. Actually I don’t see Warren running. Don’t be surprised if he bows out last minute. He has held this for all but one term since 1996, and he is around age 70 so retirement could be looming

    3. Word is they are lining up Brett Olds to run for the LNP, either in 2022 or beyond. Olds is currently serving on the Cairns Regional Council.

    4. I’ve always imagined this seat as one which behaves similar to Eden-Monaro under Mike Kelly, always quite close but one which in the absence of a sitting MP becomes a low hanging fruit for the opposition.

      I expect this seat to remain close, and flip in the absence of Entsch, which will either be this election or next.

    5. Warren Entsch is unlikely to contest. Completely disagree with the post above. He is one of the oldest MP’s and he wanted to retire ages ago. Why would he re-contest in current circumstances?

      There have been instances before where candidates said they intended to run but last minute (month or 2 out from the election) decided to retire and pull out. I see Warren Entsch pulling a Julie Bishop by quitting right at the last minute.

    6. You can’t stay in parliament for ever and why would you want To? If Entsch retires then it will be a Labor gain

    7. The reason Entsch is staying is pretty obvious. In regards to Bishop: 1) she likely expected the Coalition to lose, and didn’t want to go from being one of the most powerful figures in the government to Opposition 2) she was bitter about how the leadership election turned out 3) she knew that no matter what, she’d be succeeded by a Liberal in Curtin.

    8. Russell Broadbent in Monash will be 71 before the next election, Ken Wyatt 69, Bob Katter 75. Who is the oldest Labor MP planning to run again?

    9. Entsch ran again to block Olds who is an anti-vaxxer popularist. That someone with ‘Trumpist’ po!Utica was the rival suggests re-selection is either not based on merit or that the take-over of the LNP branches by the conspiratorial right is well underway. Embracing popularist of the Trumpet sort might get short term electoral advantage but costs the party it’s identity as the Republicans have discovered.

    10. Warren Entsch is a likeable politician who works his electorate. He is running in this election because Labor have a strong candidate and it is believed only Entsch’s personal vote will secure a narrow victory for the Coalition. There is an air of disillusionment with the Coalition in the North over indigenous policy, the Great Barrier Reef and the lack of infrastructure spending in North Queensland .The Labor Party will be putting effort into maximising its vote in both Leichhardt and Herbert. Warren Entsch may hold on but it will be a lot closer this time.

    11. Results on election night will be Labor 50.7 win to 52.6%. I am a local from Leichhardt and will inform you Elida Faith will flip the seat. I have been Door knocking throughout 2021 and from my personal tally of 431 individuals, Liberals have lost momentum in the suburbs and amongst liberal voters of 213 door knocked 85 have swayed away from supporting Warrens image being closely stuck to Morrison on their inability to properly solve insurance crises and long term supply chain crises amongst other issues whilst we’re facing a social recession has swung them in Independent/Labor or Labor first. On election night the seat will swing by a solid 4.9% to Labor. Consider the Migration and immigration rate to the regions also consider rapid growth in Barron River, independence running and 3.7% greens that vote for Warren federally in the last election that have swayed in wake of geological disasters and lack of environmental investment or policy and the New Joint Cairns and Townsville Labor JCU Labor club actively campaigning in 2022. While you all may think, I know.

    12. Coalition paying $1.50 to win on Sportsbet, Labor $2.40. Close enough to go either way. Hard to say whether the discontent with the federal government is enough to overcome Entsch’s personal vote. Maybe Entsch hangs on for one last ride.

    13. @ Wilson they are interesting odds. Considering Albo has spent a lot of time in this seat Labor must be in with a good show

    14. Wilson, odds are odds don’t bet of false figuresfrom outsiders. Remember when they said that about Linda Cooper. I am from leichhardt, their are many intricacies that define leichhardt that are uneveluated or undefined.A bunch of south siders don’t know regional QLD. Whilst city seats are easy to charactorise regions cover vast deverse scopes of communities.

    15. The general consensus seems to be that the Libs would be gawn if Warren wasn’t running. Perhaps the motivation is that if Warren can eke out a win this time then the next Lib might be in with a chance in a Liberal upswing year.

    16. Redistributed, not so. Labor will has several gains on the state and is in continuation too. Warren is already a light Labor figure who always falls in line with Morrison. He was actually apart of the Labor party years ago until the Coalition offered him a check to run for them. I will say Labor is always undertaken on its strength, members and ability to deliver whilst it will be competitive i project a Elida Faith flip. Defining the FNQ by pollsters and betting odds. They are both terrible means of characterising races. My personal projectories are drawn off a ton of other characteristics that define a seat.

    17. @ Jack Leichhardt is a seat in play for Labor and a possible. It is seats like this, that Labor needs and if there is a collective swing of 5% in Qld which is possible, this becomes a Labor seat.

    18. Well the Government is worried about Leichardt considering the $1B announcement for the reef.

      I hope this money is not wasted by the $440M previously given to fix the reef. What has happened to that money. Considering I know how it was arranged and set up – it is not surprising that no results came out of it. Another matter to be investigated by a Commonwealth ICAC.

    19. It’s every bit as wasteful and cynical as it looks. They’re worried about losing Leichhardt. Labor’s emissions/gas and coal policy will boil the reef too of course, despite Albo’s grandstanding on tv. Oh well.

    20. I was up in FNQ last week and Cairns was dead as a doornail. I know its the low season but I have been in Cairns in January before and there were a lot more tourists around, not many people in the airport. Of course no internationals but the domestic border closures have hurt North Qld. It will be interesting to see if there are political repurcussions.

    21. Restributed, I live up here, no although yes their is a skill and supply chain shortage for years before the pandemic only worsened now by inactive federal member warren entch. that’s why the region needs to diversify industry wise which is popular locally under state Labor however needs federal investment which federal Labor as put time and attention too. The borders has nothing to do with federal politics. Popular opinion up here is they should of remained closed if that’s what your wondering. That is what I mean by the social recession. Now businesses are shutting down unable to operate due to no RAT’S, social unrest with companies undercutting youth of australia hitting hard on workers here to federal government funds ripping off workers like Job maker etc. And cairns population has also taken a hit from borders opening from federal government pressure causing skilled older Australians to retire and leave their professions early. The reprocutions will be on Warren and

    22. Morrison. They aren’t favourable up here anymore and social conservatives have shifted support away from the current government. Politically on a similar global level it’s like republicans of Arozona. Liberatarians, democratic Liberatarians, social/ conservatarians reject the Morrison administration and are unsatisfied with the prefomence of Warren Entch. Inflation in Leichhardt is also cause for concern as supply chain over the new navy base 7 years behind schedule will only choke the local economy. If WA opens Australia’s supply chain would have been more constrained and under further pressure. In other words too little too late. The damage is already done.

    23. Leichhardt has a bit of a quirk of being one of the seats with the most candidates declaring an intention to run. Robertson takes the cake at 11 but Leichhardt isn’t too far behind with 9! ALP, LNP, GRN, UAP, PHON, KAP, AJP, IMOP and SA. Following on from Jack’s comments, I still have this as LNP Retain but about 55% with 45% Labor Gain and 0% Other Gain. Interesting to note all the corresponding state seats are ALP held.

      Looking at the small 3 parties:
      I don’t know why Socialist Alliance is running here but don’t see them getting above 1%. IMOP got 2-3% in the corresponding state seats in 2020. With the larger federal electorates I don’t see them getting above 1% though. AJP didn’t run in this area during the state election and probably wouldn’t do well with farming areas, but could have strong support in the city area around Cairns. I’d say they would max out at 2% (using Herbert 2019 as a comparison).

      Looking at the minor right-wing parties:
      UAP had a steady 5-6% in nearby electorates and here was 4%, so I think that’s they’re baseline but will be good at funneling votes to LNP. PHON collapsed at the state election in Cook (-11%), Barron River (-10%) and Cairns (-8%) state seats. With Pauline running again, it might help the party with exposure. Looking at 7-8% if there is a recovery. From a previous post on this site I looked at the PHON vote declining further north you went and KAP vote increasing. KAP best electorates were Kennedy, Herbert and then Leichhardt. They got 17% in 2020 for Cook but their vote stagnated, while PHON declined and LNP was the main beneficiary. KAP have chosen a good candidate but a bit late in the piece compared to the rest. See them getting 5-6% of the vote. According to ABC, voters for these parties preference LNP in high 60%’s compared to ALP and this might just save Warren again.

      Big 3:
      So really comes down to how much ALP can take off LNP to have a chance here as besides GRN, the rest won’t offer much in preferences (with SA and AJP being too small of vote). Although, the run of extra parties could be a drag on the LNP vote which may help ALP in a preference shoot-out but with more votes in the right-wing vs left-wing parties, could be difficult. Nevertheless, ABC doesn’t list this as a Key Seat for nothing! (I did consider the outside chance of one of UAP/PHON/KAP getting up, but they’d need a big swing to each other, very tight preferences, and would need to make a big jump to get over the combined ALP/GRN vote which I just don’t see happening.)

      LNP Retain

    24. Cairns is a ‘base’ for Socialist Alliance, as much as a party that small can be said to have one. It’s the home of Rob Pyne, a former state Labor MP turned independent, now Cairns councillor, and Pat O’Shane, retired judge and life-long Indigenous rights campaigner. Still I agree, I’d be surprised if they got a lot more than 1%. SA have close ties to the Queensland Greens now, and some Greens still help organise for Rob Pyne (afaik they don’t run their own candidates on Cairns council). But the QG have also been recruiting from and cannibalizing what little remains of the SA organisation. Of course SA claims not to be overly interested in federal electoral politics anyway, so I don’t think they mind too much.

      Leichhardt is one of the unlikely but at least reasonably plausible pickups for Labor they’ve been hyping to the media, definitely more so than Flynn, Capricornia, Bonner and Bowman, like they briefed to Channel 7 last night. Vax mandates really are passe as an electoral issue so I think the chances of UAP/ON/whoever else beating the major parties to 2PP are very slim.

    25. Albanese hyping up 9 seats to gain in Queensland is beyond a joke he’s lucky to get 1 and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t get any just based off how badly Bill Shorten did and how they think people will give them their trust back in such a short amount of time

    26. It is an immutable fact that current national polling definitely favours Labor. That said, I think the scope of their challenge is masked by the headline figure.

      The state-by-state and seat-by-seat breakdown suggets a much more uncertain and potentially close race. In Victoria and SA, Labor are already at a high watermark and there just aren’t that many seats to gain. By contrast, the swings in NSW and QLD look quite modest/appear to be concentrated in wealthier and safer Liberal seats. In 2007, Labor could rely on a parochial native son factor to bag a swag of seats in QLD. Without it, Labor would still probably have won…but it would have been much closer.

      The only state where you can point to a very significant swing is WA. But even then, there is a gap in the pendulum which makes gaining more than three seats difficult.

      All in all, this still points to a Labor majority but certainly not a 90 seat landslide. My best guess would be around 80 – 83 seats the moment.

    27. From my perspective it looks like the Greens are eating themselves in FNQ! The advent of renewables in areas of high biodiversity around the Southern Atherton Tablelands and travelling through Leichhardt and Kennedy has caused an existential crisis in local Greens. Do they support renewables at all costs, or do they support flaura and fauna in the region? This may see a reduction in their primary vote which will not trickle to the ALP. I would not be surprised to see an upset here with the ALP pushed into third on preferences. The campaign by minor parties has been assisted by issues like tourism, mandates and renewables. I think Warren will get over the line but expect an upset or two in where each party ends up.

    28. I think a lot of people are underrating labor’s chances of winning leichhardt. last election this seat behaved completely differently to almost every other seat in queensland. to me that would suggest that scott morrison doesnt have the same appeal here, it also has a history of being a bellweather. looking at booth to booth comparisons between the state election/federal suggests that there is around 5-10% overperformance for liberals at the federal level.

      if polling stays fairly strong for labor I would expect Leichhardt will flip (assuming at least a 4% swing nationally).

    29. Leichhardt has a complex array of jockeying voter groups due to being comprised of Indigenous people, cattle & cane farmers, hippy greenies, Cairns city locals, and migrants from the southern states. This makes for some decent competing numbers in the minor parties. Cairns has endured the pandemic largely unscathed by the disease itself with a total of 21 days lockdown, barely any mask mandates and minimal deaths. The entire pandemic FNQ folk have been grateful for this and largely seen it as due to our geographic distance, heat, luck and state govt border closure. However the tourism industry has been gutted hard and a lot of the industry’s workers have sold up and left, and been quickly been replaced by southern sea changers from Melbourne, scarred by what they see as overbearing Labor government lockdowns. There have been large anti covid vax mandate protests as well – the largest in the city’s history. I think Entsch will get back in due to his popularity but also due to the conservative power of being placed after IMOP/UAP/PHON/KAP in preferencing. I don’t think many voters will want to upend the relative stability the seat has experienced during the pandemic.

    30. Jane an interesting perspective. I had been given information that Cairns was a ghost town and that the locals were out for revenge against any sitting member. Entsh of course does not get the rusted on National Party that one expects from an MP in a seat like Leichardt but has managed to retain some local support in Cairns . However there is a lot of opposition to him from those whose preferences might count. The seat is regarded as Katter country, but the decline in industry means that it is fertile ground for both Hanson and Palmer. Cairns has changed from being a dilapidated bush town to an imitation of Gold coast. I first went to Cairns to visit the Meatworks at Queerah now gone. Now reliant on tourism Cairns has been hit hard by covid. A vote out sitting member campaign would hit hard for Entsh. I stayed in a motel in Cairns and mentioned my connection to Bob Katter ( at that time I was party National Secretary) and got a response I have never heard about any other politician “Oh up here we love our Bob” . Inaccurate as Cairns is not included in Kennedy and I don’t think ever was. It however reveals why Bob Katter has a strong personal vote. I just can not visualise going into a motel in any other seat and being told “we love our local member”.
      Entsch still carrys baggage from the Same Sex Marriage debate that will make it easier for fundamentalist Christians to preference Australian Labor Party ahead of Nationals but Entsch is a National not a Liberal.
      Elida Faith appears to be running a very traditional Australian Labor Party campaign concentrating on bread and butter issues such as Health care, Medicare, Aged care spiced up with a bit of N Q parochialism.
      My prediction here is ALP gain but I certainly would not put money on this.

    31. Hahaha, this is great finally comment section isn’t a ghost town. Labor might start off with a rough start to this election with Media knitpicking and character assassination like always. On the night Labor will pull through with an 81 to 83 majority. We have elected the party government in office since 1972. Elida is traditional as Labor gets with a focus of regional infrastructure , I was out doorknocking with Jim Turnour and he said Elida is the best candidate we have had in a long time. A special /popular guest is coming up sometime soon also. Lots of Katters that I have spoke to have lost interest in Warren’s outdated politics they have surprisingly come out late this election our region is always a last minute last ditch effort for the LNP with no plan and no budget and the greens have a decent pick from an agricultural and engineering background Phillip Musumeci, he will garner 12.5 to 12.8% of the night a relative 2 point gain. One nation in 2019 was effectively the defected Labor vote of the time and will shuffle back to their bases. Plus turnout on the night will be high from 87.7% to 94.6%. We will keep our majority status. Locals have come to their senses in realising Morrison’s government whilst they might be great cheerleaders at campaigning, are unfit and unrealistic for office in actually managing a government. Warren also has the scandal of his former top staffer being accused of offences canberra related Brittany Higgins movement that he instated he would hire again and promoted the accused if he wanted to work in his office voters have a right to know more about this and Warren won’tjust shugg it off. Many Educated Indipendents and Liberal women are going to swing away from Morrison and Warren.

    32. This is rematch of 2019 with Warren Entsch (LNP) vs Elida Faith (ALP). Interestingly the UAP Candidate for 2019 (Jen Sackley) is now running as IND in 2022 in Kennedy. The weirdest polling result from 2019 for me was FCAN getting 13% of the vote at the Aurukun Booth! The other candidates didn’t run in Fed 19 or QLD 20, with Pat O’Shane having a previous profile but is 80! All power to her for running though.

      Looking at primary votes in the polling booths, you can really see Warren’s weakness and why this is a marginal, he struggles to crack 40%+ in the big polling booths in Cairns and that leaves the door open to ALP and the minors for a chance to win (if the ALP can get a good 4-5% swing to them from LNP). Cairns CBD (LNP 38%) and Cairns (LNP 37.7%) Pre-polls had 25,743 voters or about 1/4 of the electorate. Although the ALP at 26% & 25% in those same pre-polls show why they need to target Cairns hard to flip this seat.

      I still see this as LNP retain but it’ll be close.

    33. Dr Martin’s video tears the IMoP candidate to pieces. He shows that her understanding of the Constitution is based on gut feeling rather than having read the document. She is claiming the Election is unconstitutional because 18 year old’s are allowed to vote. It is well worth watching it shows up precious why one issue candidates need educating. It is worth the few minutes to see IMOP shown up as lacking the understanding of the meaning of “ untill the Parliament decides otherwise”.

    34. The hype for a possible Labor gain here has recently died down quite a bit at least from my observations. One Nation (as expected) cowering in Queensland and refusing to put any Liberal “moderates” last here despite doing so in other states will have some sort of effect on Leichardt no matter how small. No detailed explanation as to why but barring anything interesting happening in the remainder of the campaign, I expect Entsch to retain this seat with something like a 1-2.5% margin.

    35. @Laine It was reported Matt Canavan brokered a deal for One Nation to recommend preferences to the LNP ahead of Labor in all QLD seats

    36. This seat will be nailbiter. Daintree Elder Pat O’Shane has a high profile and should haul in around 3 per cent of the vote. Her preferences will flow to Labor candidate.

    37. Not to underestimate Entsch’s ability to defy swings, but sometimes when a sitting member holds too long they weaken their vote as they are seen as past it. I wonder if that might be happening here and Labor pick it up.

    38. You know what, after the election kafuffle is over I am going to make a nice Bacon, ham and egg 🥚 😋 tostie and enjoy a Labor government of 80 to 83 seats with a juicy crossbench made up of liberatians and progressive right candidates and the mad cowboy maverick Bob katter.

    39. Heard something else about this seat. Get Up poured resources into the seat including an Indigenous activists who helped enrol a rumoured 3000 plus voters on Cape York.

    40. @Jack that is inspiring… I’m on the cholesterol pills but I really miss bacon and egg toasties. Gonna spoil myself on Sunday morning with one of those to combat the hangover. 🙂

    41. Get Up!! Has been phenomenal 👏 🙌 in the democratic process of engaging Australian citizens in involving themselves in the process of voting 🗳.

    42. Jack
      Bob Katter is not mad. He has been dedicated to looking after those who vote for him for thirty years plus. The residents of Leichardt will get benefits they will never get with Warren Entsch even if Libs win election. If ALP win the election anf Leichardt is the deciding seat will Cairns do better than with Entsch. KAP are quite willing to walk away from pottential governments who treat the electorate like the bats treat Cairns Library ie something to shit on.

    43. Bye Mad I mean sick. Which means epic. KATTERS have greatly banifactored the Kennedy electorate and bring stability as they did this term to the house. Katter is the only true maverick candidate left in Canberra and will be elected again. No major party could achieve what he has done. Pauline Hanson is a poser in the regions she’s an inner city snob and Clive palmer is a billionaire out for his tax cut to afford his maccas bill.

    44. I understand there are two polling booths in the south western part of Leichardt that are at risk of not being open tomorrow. I’ve been checking the AEC website to see which ones they are but there doesn’t seem to be any updates. Can anyone enlighten me?

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