Curtin is a safe Liberal seat. Libs should retain. But could always fall to an high-profile Independent and if a the Greens could pick up a seat from the Liberals (with Julie Bishop no longer the local MP) in WA, Curtin would be that seat (inner-metropolitan, tertiary educated voters). Labor’s primary is too low for a win but their preferences could elect a Independent or Green candidate who can appeal to this electorate. This seat is a more conservative than Higgins, Brisbane or Ryan but if the Liberal vote collapses any further becomes an open race for preferences from second or third place.