Curtin – Australia 2022

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  1. Curtin is a safe Liberal seat. Libs should retain.

    But could always fall to an high-profile Independent and if a the Greens could pick up a seat from the Liberals (with Julie Bishop no longer the local MP) in WA, Curtin would be that seat (inner-metropolitan, tertiary educated voters). Labor’s primary is too low for a win but their preferences could elect a Independent or Green candidate who can appeal to this electorate.

    This seat is a more conservative than Higgins, Brisbane or Ryan but if the Liberal vote collapses any further becomes an open race for preferences from second or third place.

  2. First the first time ever the majority if Curtin voters have a Labor state member. That is so bizarre. You never know they might like a Labor federal member considering the current liberal is from the hard right whereas Julie bishop was moderate

  3. Greens have announced their candidate, Cameron Pidgeon who ran for them in 2019 and Celia Hammond look set to be re-preselected. I’d keen to learn who Labor nominates.

  4. Demographically Curtin’s similar to Higgins, Goldstein, Kooyong etc, and yes Brisbane and Ryan (although those two have a slightly lower mean personal income, going by the 2016 census data). But the Libs still have a gargantuan margin in Curtin unlike any other comparable seat- which I’d chalk up to Julie Bishop’s personal popularity and the ineffectiveness of local opposition, rather than implacable conservatism. You’d basically need to replicate Warringah to bring it to an independent at the next election, not something worth counting on even if you believe the promises of double digit statewide swings across WA. Celia Hammond just doesn’t animate the kind of hatred Abbott did. She’s arguably the least offensive out of all the inner-city Libs fretting for their fiefdoms. So I doubt Simon Holmes and co will be doing much in Curtin

  5. This seat is most comparable to Higgins, Wentworth, Warringah etc. However, with a much higher Liberal margin. This is completely due to Julie Bishop’s personal popularity. In Curtin, she was beyond popular, in fact she still is. Celia Hammond is certainly no Julie Bishop. However, should be an easy liberal hold baring a popular local independent (only ones I could think of would be Nedlands Mayor and Socialite Fiona Argyle, Cambridge Mayor Kerri Shannon, or former Cottesloe Mayor John Hammond. Also, the outside chance Labor could poll well, given on State results they would now hold this seat. Polls are currently suggesting a 10% swing to Labor in WA, and there is the potential for that swing to be higher in the Western Suburbs, where integrity and climate change are key issues.

  6. Grew up in this seat and agree with the seat comparisons, it is very much a “small l” liberal seat. Julie Bishop was a visible local member and seemed to work hard despite how safe the seat is. Her replacement Celia Hammond is less so but will very likely be re-elected as locals consideration of their financial interests takes precedence, though most people in Curtin are far from impressed with the performance of the Federal Government.

    I expect a sizeable swing against the Liberals with votes heading to Labor, Greens and any Independents that run, but the Cottesloe, Peppermint Grove and Claremont section of this seat are particularly immovable and will prevent it changing hands. If the Liberals lose Curtin then they will all lose all city based seats in WA and while they incredibly lost 2 of the 3 state seats here at the last election I can’t imagine that happening federally.


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