East Metropolitan – WA 2013

Incumbent MLCs

• Donna Faragher (Liberal), since 2005.
• Alyssa Hayden (Liberal), since 2009.
• Helen Morton (Liberal), since 2005.
• Ljiljanna Ravlich (Labor), since 1997.
• Linda Savage (Labor), since 2010*.
• Alison Xamon (Greens), since 2009.

*Savage filled a vacancy caused by the death of Jock Ferguson, who had been MLC for East Metropolitan since 2009.

Geography
East Metropolitan covers the electoral districts of Armadale, Bassendean, Belmont, Darling Range, Forrestfield, Gosnells, Kalamunda, Maylands, Midland, Mirrabooka, Morley, Mount Lawley, Swan Hills and West Swan.

Nine seats are held by the ALP, and four seats by the Liberal Party. The seat of Morley was won by the Liberal Party in 2008 but the redistribution has redrawn the district to be a notional Labor seat.

Six seats (four Labor, two Liberal) are held by margins of less than 5%. The five safest seats in the region are all held by the ALP.

History
East Metropolitan was created as a five-member electorate in 1989.

The ALP won three seats and the Liberal Party won two in 1989. This breakdown was the result at four of the five elections from 1989 to 2005. In 1996, the ALP lost their third seat to the Democrats, before regaining the seat in 2001.

In 2008, East Metropolitan gained a sixth seat, which was won by the Liberal Party. The Greens won a seat for the first time off the ALP. The 2008 election was the first time that the Liberal Party won more seats than Labor in the East.

2008 result

On primary votes, the ALP and the Liberal Party each won two seats. The race for the last two spots was primarily between the ALP’s Linda Savage, the Greens’ Alison Xamon and the Liberal Party’s Alyssa Hayden.

Once all minor candidates were eliminated, the final candidates held the following proportions of a quota:

• Xamon (GRN) – 0.9156 quotas
• Savage (ALP) – 0.8741
• Hayden (LIB) – 0.6552
• Randall (CDP) – 0.3194
• Bolt (FF) – 0.2326

Most of Bolt’s preferences flowed to the CDP:

• Xamon – 0.9200
• Savage – 0.8969
• Hayden – 0.6597
• Randall – 0.5203

Most of the CDP’s preferences flowed to the Liberal Party, electing the third Liberal candidate.

• Hayden – 1.1598
• Xamon – 0.9293
• Savage – 0.9076

While Xamon held a slight lead over Savage, but not enough to win the seat. The Liberal preferences were then distributed, giving Xamon the seat.

• Xamon – 1.0511
• Savage – 0.9441

Candidates

• Liberal
  1. Helen Morton
  2. Donna Faragher
  3. Alyssa Hayden
  4. Caroline Preuss
  5. Darryl Trease
  6. Jessica Thorpe-Gudgeon
• The Greens
  1. Alison Xamon
  2. Glenice Dianne Smith
  3. David Bromfield
• Shooters and Fishers
  1. Michael Georgiou
  2. Grant Cooper
• Australian Christians
  1. Dwight Randall
  2. David Kingston
• Family First
  1. Paul Barrett
  2. Nathan Clifford
• Labor
  1. Alanna Clohesy
  2. Samantha Rowe
  3. Amber Jade Sanderson
  4. Bill Leadbetter
  5. Michelle O’Driscoll
  6. Andy Smith
• Chung Tu
• Tom Hoyer
• Joe Nardizzi

Preferences
The race in South Metro is primarily between the two major parties, the Greens and three small conservative parties.

The Greens and Labor have swapped preferences. After the Greens, Labor preferences the Shooters, Christians, Family First, then Labor. The Greens preference the Liberals ahead of the right-wing minors.

The Liberals preference the Australian Christians first, with their preferences putting Labor last and the Greens second-last.

All three of the right-wing minors preference the other two first and second, followed by the Liberals. The Australian Christians (previously known as the CDP) gain the second preferences of Family First, the Shooters and the Liberals, and give their second preference to Family First.

The Liberals preference the Greens ahead of Labor, whereas Family First and the Australian Christians preference Labor ahead of the Greens.

The Shooters and Fishers diverge from the other right-wing minors. After preferencing the Australian Christians and Family First, they preference the Greens ahead of the Liberals and Labor.

Assessment
East Metropolitan is locked into a pattern of three MLCs elected from both the right and the left, barring a massive swing. The Liberal Party polled enough to win three seats in 2008, and should solidify their position with an increased vote.

Despite the likelihood of the vote for the ALP and the Greens going down, the vote is unlikely to go down far enough to reduce the left to two seats. This means the final seat is a race between Labor and the Greens.

The seat is likely to go to the party whose vote is least impacted by a negative swing. The Greens may also benefit from preferences from the Liberal Party, which go to them ahead of the ALP. This may be balanced by preferences from the Australian Christians and Family First, which will flow to Labor.