The Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission of South Australia (EDBC) this morning released their draft electoral map for the 2022 South Australian election.
The map is the first to be drawn since the repeal of the ‘fairness provision’ which required the Commission to draw boundaries that ensured that a party winning a majority of the two-party-preferred vote would be on track to win a majority of seats. I won’t go into the implications of that decision here, but I’ve blogged and podcasted about this topic before.
If you want to understand the population statistics prior to this redistribution, click here.
Not a single electorate has flipped party, but a number of seats have become more winnable for Labor, and thus the swing needed for Labor to win a majority has shrunk.
Based on the vote at the 2018 election, the redistribution maintains the Liberal Party on 24 (plus a twenty-fifth seat held by an independent who left the party since the election), 19 for Labor, and four independents. The ALP currently requires a 4.4% swing to win four seats, giving them 23, which would make them the largest party. They now need a swing of just 1.5% to gain those four seats.
The three most marginal Liberal seats are Adelaide, Newland and Elder. They all became more marginal, with Elder in particular having its margin cut from 4.4% to 0.1%. The seat of King has become slightly safer, with its Liberal margin increasing from 0.7% to 1.5%.
19.7% of voters have been transferred into a different seat. A majority of seats underwent modest changes. 29 out of 47 seats have been drawn with over 70% of their previous population included.
No changes were made to Mount Gambier, while Cheltenham and Port Adelaide only gained voters while maintaining their existing population. Changes were also minor in Taylor, Adelaide and Mawson.
I will return next week with a full map of the state but that will take some time to complete. Before I leave I wanted to just touch on Frome and Kavel – the only two seats where the former seat’s population makes up less than half of the new seat’s population.
Frome shifted south towards Adelaide, taking in parts of Narungga, Light, Schubert and Stuart. Port Pirie used to be the main population centre of the electorate (making up over 40% of the election day vote in 2014, on the 2018 boundaries) but has been moved into Stuart, while Narungga expanded to take in other parts of Frome.
The city of Port Augusta has been split down the middle, with the western half moved into Giles, the same seat that covers Whyalla.
The seat of Kavel has also lost more than half of its former population, with Mount Barker moved into Hammond. The seat has moved north, stretching almost as far as Gawler.
- That’s it for now, but I’ll be back with the map some time next week.