LIB 3.5%
Incumbent MP
Frank Alban, since 2008.
Geography
Outer North-West of Perth. Swan Hills is one of the geographically largest seats in Perth, sitting at the top of the East Metropolitan Legislative Council region. It covers the north of Swan council area and north-eastern parts of Mundaring council area, including Ellenbrook, Aveley, Gidgegannup, Chidlow, Mount Helena and Wooroloo.
Redistribution
Swan Hills gained Ellenbrook from West Swan, lost Middle Swan to West Swan and lost Parkerville and Mundaring to Kalamunda. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 5.9% to 3.5%.
History
Swan Hills has existed since 1989, and in that time has always been won by the party that forms government.
The seat was first won in 1989 by Labor MP Gavan Troy, who had held Mundaring since 1983. He retired in 1993 and was succeeded by Liberal candidate June van der Klashorst.
Van der Klashorst was re-elected in 1996 on improved boundaries. In 2001, she lost with a shock 11.7% swing to the Labor candidate Jaye Radisich.
Radisich retired in 2008, and the ALP ran sitting MLC Graham Giffard. He lost to the Liberal Party’s Frank Alban. Alban was re-elected in 2013.
Candidates
- Jessica Shaw (Labor)
- Sandra Old (One Nation)
- Danusha Bhowaniah (Julie Matheson for WA)
- Frank Alban (Liberal)
- Lucky Singh (Micro Business Party)
- Evan Webb (Greens)
Assessment
Swan Hills has a history as a bellwether seat, and Labor will need to win here if they are to win back government.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Frank Alban | Liberal | 11,446 | 50.7 | +5.5 | 48.9 |
| Ian Radisich | Labor | 8,159 | 36.1 | +3.8 | 40.5 |
| Dominique Lieb | Greens | 2,028 | 9.0 | -7.9 | 7.0 |
| John Tapley | Australian Christians | 481 | 2.1 | -0.7 | 2.2 |
| Kyran Sharrin | Family First | 460 | 2.0 | -0.7 | 1.4 |
| Informal | 1,312 | 5.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Frank Alban | Liberal | 12,610 | 55.9 | +2.4 | 53.5 |
| Ian Radisich | Labor | 9,958 | 44.1 | -2.4 | 46.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
The Liberal Party narrowly won in the east, and Labor narrowly won in the west, but the Liberal Party won over 60% after preferences in the centre of the seat.
The Greens vote ranged from 4.5% in the west to 11.1% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 4.5 | 48.9 | 8,425 | 41.3 |
| Central | 6.7 | 61.5 | 4,210 | 20.7 |
| East | 11.1 | 50.3 | 2,952 | 14.5 |
| Pre-poll | 7.7 | 59.3 | 1,091 | 5.4 |
| Other votes | 9.2 | 55.7 | 3,711 | 18.2 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Swan Hills at the 2013 WA state election
Whilst both sit on the Liberal side of the pendulum (for now), the ALP would be happy with the even split of the Labor vote between Swan Hills and West Swan.
The Libs are not much of a chance here given their history of broken promises to the residents of Ellenbrook. Will be one of the first seats to fall to Labor.
this is almost labor on 2008 figures……… probable Labor gain
This time I support to Lucky singh micro business party
I talk to him he is really nice bloke. He lives local and know the local problems
Alban will get destroyed here, less than 10% a failure for Shaw. Only interest will be if the Greens vote pick up as well.
Greens will do well from the last minute fracking push. Their upper house seats are basically a dice roll so their measure of success will probably be how many of Labor’s gains are off Greens preferences.