South West – WA 2017

Incumbent MLCs

  • Adele Farina (Labor), since 2001
  • Nigel Hallett (Shooters and Fishers1), since 2005
  • Colin Holt (National), since 2009
  • Barry House (Liberal), since 1987
  • Robyn McSweeney (Liberal), since 2001
  • Sally Talbot (Labor), since 2005

1Nigel Hallett represented the Liberal Party until June 2016, when he switched to the Shooters and Fishers.

Geography

Electorate Margin Electorate Margin
Albany ALP 1.1% Mandurah ALP 7.7%
Bunbury LIB 11.8% Murray-Wellington LIB 12.0%
Collie-Preston LIB 3.0% Vasse LIB 21.2%
Dawesville LIB 12.7% Warren-Blackwood NAT 6.9% vs LIB

South West covers the southwestern corner of the state, stretching along the coast from Mandurah on the southern fringe of Perth to Albany on the state’s southern coast.

The region includes five Liberal seats, two Labor seats and one Nationals seat.

You can click through to individual seat profiles on the table above or on the map below.

Redistribution
The South West region maintained all of its territory, and expanded slightly on its eastern edge to take in an area from the Agricultural region.

No changes were made to Dawesville or Mandurah and minor changes were made to the other seats. These changes shifted Collie-Preston from a Labor seat to being a notional Liberal seat.

History
South West was created as a seven-member electorate in 1989.

At the first election in 1989, the ALP and the Liberal Party each won three seats, and the Nationals won one. This result was maintained in 1993.

In 1996, the Greens won a seat, taking the ALP’s third seat.

In 2001, the Nationals lost their seat to One Nation. At the first four elections in the region, the right (Liberal, Nationals and One Nation) won four seats, compared to three seats for the left.

In 2005, the left-right split was disturbed, with the ALP winning the seat won by One Nation in 2001.

In 2008, South West lost one of its seven seats. Labor and the Greens both lost a seat, and the Nationals won a seat after a seven-year absence.

Each party held its seats in 2013. Liberal MLC Nigel Hallett defected to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party in 2016.

2013 result

Group Votes % Swing Quota Seats Redist % Redist q.
Liberal 74,248 44.0 +4.5 3.0765 3 43.5 3.0461
Labor 51,576 30.5 -2.5 2.1371 2 30.2 2.1132
Nationals 18,541 11.0 +0.2 0.7683 1 11.7 0.8188
Greens 13,374 7.9 -0.7 0.5542 0 7.9 0.5507
Shooters and Fishers 3,997 2.4 +2.4 0.1656 0 2.4 0.1673
Family First 2,577 1.5 -2.4 0.1068 0 1.5 0.1060
Australian Christians 2,453 1.5 -0.7 0.1016 0 1.5 0.1043
Others 2,165 1.3 -0.8 0.0897 0 1.3 0.0932

Five seats were won on primary votes: three seats for the Liberal Party and two seats for Labor.

Let’s fast forward to the last nine candidates, with the Nationals candidate leading the Greens candidate for the last seat:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.7689
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.5558
  • Strijk (SFP) – 0.1662
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.1340
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.1070
  • Moseley (AUC) – 0.1016
  • Morison (LIB) – 0.0723
  • Sri-Innop Ross (IND) – 0.0496
  • Hyland (IND) – 0.0414

Hyland’s preferences favoured Family First:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.7693
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.5571
  • Strijk (SFP) – 0.1667
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.1414
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.1344
  • Moseley (AUC) – 0.1036
  • Morison (LIB) – 0.0726
  • Sri-Innop Ross (IND) – 0.0516

Sri Innop Ross’ preferences flowed to the Greens:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.7702
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.6047
  • Strijk (SFP) – 0.1675
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.1422
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.1349
  • Moseley (AUC) – 0.1039
  • Morison (LIB) – 0.0731

Liberal preferences favoured Family First:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.7762
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.6074
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.1996
  • Strijk (SFP) – 0.1699
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.1376
  • Moseley (AUC) – 0.1050

Australian Christians preferences also favoured Family First:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.7782
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.6099
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.2983
  • Strijk (SFP) – 0.1706
  • Mondy (ALP) – 0.1384

Labor preferences mostly flowed to the Greens:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.7943
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.7244
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.3018
  • Strijk (SFP) – 0.1744

Shooters preferences boosted Family First, but they fell far short of the two leading candidates:

  • Holt (NAT) – 0.8063
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.7274
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.4607

Preferences which had ended up with Family First then flowed to the Nationals, electing Holt to the last seat.

  • Holt (NAT) – 1.0611
  • Watson (GRN) – 0.7685
  • Custers (FFP) – 0.1646

Candidates

  • A – Nigel Hallett (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • B – Jeff Casson (Micro Business Party)
  • C – Linda Rose (Family First)
  • D – Labor
    1. Sally Talbot
    2. Adele Farina
    3. John Mondy
    4. Barry Winmar
    5. Jessica Short
  • E – Diane Evers (Greens)
  • F – Greg Spaanderman (Australian Christians)
  • G – Daithí Gleeson (Flux)
  • H – Liberal
    • Steve Thomas
    • Wade De Campo
    • Robyn McSweeney
    • Tony Norment
    • Heather Reid
    • Douglas McLarty
  • I – Stephen Phelan (Julie Matheson for WA)
  • J – Tim Hartley (Independent)
  • K – Colin Tincknell (One Nation)
  • L – Alicia Sutton (Animal Justice)
  • M – Hayley Green (Fluoride Free WA)
  • N – Nathan Dyson (Liberal Democrats)
  • O – Brett Tucker (Daylight Saving Party)
  • P – Nationals
    1. Colin Holt
    2. Louise Kingston
    3. Bevan Eatts
    4. Kylie Kennaugh
  • Ungrouped
    • Eric Thern (Independent)
    • Katrina De Ruyck (Independent)
    • John Higgins (Independent)
    • Zyggi Uchwal (Independent)
    • Kyle Hammond (Independent)

Preferences
Preferences have not yet been released.

Assessment
This region leans to the right, but by much less than the other two non-metropolitan regions.

The left will be holding out hope of regaining a third seat off the right. A swing of about 4.5% to Labor and the Greens would be enough to give one of them an additional seat. The Greens have often held a seat in this region, and would be hoping to win again.

There will also be substantial competition for seats from minor right-wing parties. One Nation will be a presence in this area, as well the Shooters and Fishers, represented by ex-Liberal MLC Nigel Hallett, who defected a few months ago. The Shooters did not poll anywhere near as well in the South West as in Agricultural or Mining and Pastoral in 2013, so Hallett will need a big primary vote lift to retain his seat.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal vote was higher in those areas closer to Perth, with 55% in Vasse and Dawesville. The Liberal vote was lowest at 32% in Albany and Warren-Blackwood.

The Labor vote was highest at 45% in Mandurah and 36% in Collie-Preston. The Labor vote was lowest at 17% in Vasse and 18% in Warren-Blackwood.

The Nationals did best in Warren-Blackwood, where they polled almost 28%. The Nationals polled only 2.1% in Mandurah and Dawesville, on the urban fringe of Perth.

The Greens vote peaked at over 15% in Warren-Blackwood, and was lowest in the seats closest to Perth, with a vote of around 5% in Mandurah and Dawesville.

Results of the 2013 WA upper house election in the South West region, by 2017 electorate

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.