Ocean Reef – WA 2013

LIB 2.7%

Incumbent MP
Albert Jacob, since 2008.

 

Map of Ocean Reef’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Local government areas are marked as green lines. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Northern Perth. The seat covers the suburbs of Ocean Reef, Mullaloo, Burns Beach, Kinross, Mindarie and parts of Currambine. The seat is a thin, coastal strip that takes in parts of Joondalup and Wanneroo council areas.

Redistribution
Ocean Reef previously only covered parts of Joondalup council, but in the redistribution the seat crossed the council boundary to take in Mindarie (previously in the seat of Mindarie, which was renamed Butler). The seat lost parts of Currambine to Joondalup and Kallaroo to Hillarys. The margin was cut from 4.4% to 2.7%.

History
Ocean Reef was created for the 2008 election – one of a number of new seats created in Perth due to one vote one value legislation.

The seat was created with a notional Labor majority, but thanks to a 6% swing it was won by Liberal candidate Albert Jacob.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Albert Jacob is running for re-election. The ALP is running Philippa Taylor. The Greens are running Mary O’Byrne.

Assessment
Ocean Reef is a very marginal seat.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Albert Jacob LIB 9,163 47.7 +5.8
Louise Durack ALP 7,056 36.7 -7.9
Justin Wood GRN 2,001 10.4 +3.7
Frederick Hay FF 543 2.8 -0.6
Kevin Mullen CDP 438 2.3 +0.2

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Albert Jacob LIB 10,445 54.4 +6.0
Louise Durack ALP 8,747 45.6 -6.0

 

Polling booths in Ocean Reef at the 2008 WA state election. North in orange, Central in green, South in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:

  • North – Kinross, Mindarie
  • Central – Currambine, Burns Beach
  • South – Ocean Reef, Mullaloo, Beaumaris

The Liberal Party topped the poll in all three areas. The ALP’s vote was highest in the area where the Liberal vote was lowest, coming within 0.21% in the north. The Liberal vote peaked at 48.6% in the south.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
South 48.58 35.67 10.88 7,518 46.51
North 43.23 43.02 9.32 5,804 35.90
Central 46.39 39.61 8.37 2,843 17.59
Other votes 47.19 36.30 11.10 3,766
Liberal primary votes in Ocean Reef at the 2008 WA state election.
Labor primary votes in Ocean Reef at the 2008 WA state election.
Greens primary votes in Ocean Reef at the 2008 WA state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. “The seat lost parts of Currumbin”: oughta be Currambine, with an “A”. (Currumbin is on the Gold Coast.)

    This seat might not be as marginal as it looks after redistribution… the two strongest Labor booths were from Mindarie, where John Quigley was one of the few Labor MP’s to get a swing to them in 2008 – apparently he has a very decent personal vote, which isn’t any use this time. Even if Labor get a general swing statewide (which isn’t looking likely), I’d be surprised if they won here.

  2. I wonder about John Quigley’s personal vote. Might he not just be benefiting from the new suburbs of his turf, about a third of which weren’t even there at the previous election? This is the cheapest land you can get if you want to live near the beach, so it’s really more an eastern than a northern suburbs demographic.

  8. Libs should have no problem holding this one.

    Was Louise Durack connected to the long line of famous “Duracks” in WA?

Comments are closed.