South-West Coast – Victoria 2018

LIB 11.0%

Incumbent MP
Roma Britnell, since 2015.

Geography
South-Western Victoria. This seat covers the South Australian border and the western end of Victoria’s southern coast. It covers the towns of Warrnambool, Portland, Port Fairy, and Macarthur. South-West Coast covers the City of Warrnambool and a majority of the Shire of Moyne and the Shire of Glenelg.

History
South-West Coast was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seats of Portland and Warrnambool.

At the 2002 election it was won by former Liberal leader Denis Napthine. He had been Member for Portland since 1988, and Minister for Youth and Community Services in the second term of the Kennett government. He was elected leader of the Liberal Party following Kennett’s defeat in 1999, and led the party until 2002, when he was replaced by Robert Doyle as Liberal leader months before the 2002 state election.

At the 2002 election, Napthine moved to the new seat of South-West Coast, holding it with a 0.7% margin despite a large swing to the ALP. He was re-elected with a larger margin in 2006. In 2010, he increased his margin to 11.9%.

Napthine served as a minister in the Bailleu Coalition government. In March 2013, Bailleu resigned as Premier and Napthine was elected as leader of the Liberal Party and Premier.

Napthine led the Liberal/National coalition into the 2014 election, and the government was narrowly defeated. He retired from parliament shortly after the election.

The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Roma Britnell.

Candidates

Assessment
South-West Coast is a safe Liberal seat.

2014 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Denis Napthine Liberal 23,234 57.0 +7.7
Roy Reekie Labor 11,507 28.2 +3.6
Thomas Campbell Greens 3,993 9.8 +1.6
Steven Moore Country Alliance 945 2.3 -1.2
Michael Mccluskey Independent 654 1.6 +1.6
Linda K. Smith Independent 449 1.1 +1.1
Informal 1,715 4.0

2014 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Denis Napthine Liberal 24,914 61.0 -0.9
Roy Reekie Labor 15,947 39.0 +0.9

2015 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Roma Britnell Liberal 15,486 40.0 -17.0
Roy Reekie Independent 6,512 16.8 +16.8
Michael Neoh Nationals 5,581 14.4 +14.4
Jim Doukas Country Party 4,005 10.3 +8.0
Thomas Campbell Greens 2,938 7.6 -2.2
Swampy Marsh Independent 1,137 2.9 +2.9
Pete Smith Independent 695 1.8 +1.8
Rodney Van De Hoef Independent 677 1.7 +1.7
Michael McCluskey Independent 616 1.6 FALSE
Lillian Len Christians 579 1.5 +1.5
Jennifer Gamble Animal Justice 490 1.3 +1.3
Informal 1,950 4.8

2015 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Roma Britnell Liberal 23,455 60.6
Roy Reekie Independent 15,261 39.4

Booth breakdown

Booths in South-West Coast have been divided into three parts, along local government areas: Glenelg, Moyne and Warrnambool. A majority of the electorate’s population lives in the Warrnambool area. Glenelg is the other major town in the electorate, although the council area also covers surrounding rural areas.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas at the 2014 election, ranging from 57.1% in Glenelg to 70.1% in Moyne. The Greens primary vote ranged from 8.6% in Moyne to 11% in Glenelg.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas (against the independent) at the 2015 by-election, ranging from 52.6% in Warrnambool to 64.5% in Glenelg. The Nationals primary vote ranged from 9.6% in Glenelg to 17.3% in Warrnambool.

2014 booth breakdown

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Warrnambool 10.1 60.8 10,283 25.2
Moyne 8.6 70.1 5,159 12.7
Glenelg 11.0 57.1 3,887 9.5
Other votes 11.8 62.4 3,170 7.8
Pre-poll 9.3 59.3 18,283 44.8

2017 by-election booth breakdown

Voter group NAT prim % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Warrnambool 17.3 52.6 8,942 23.1
Moyne 10.9 59.0 4,623 11.9
Glenelg 9.6 64.5 3,402 8.8
Other votes 14.7 63.3 21,749 56.2

Election results in South-West Coast at the 2014 Victorian state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Election results at the 2015 South-West Coast by-election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs independent) and Nationals primary votes.

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11 COMMENTS

  2. In the last few years i have noticed social media has become a lot more vocal about local politics (it used to be very lonely saying anything pro labor).
    I think there is a growing grassroots pressure to make the seat more marginal, i dont expect it to happen this time, but we might be see some movement.

    Warrnambool has been ruled by Libs at state and federal level since 1955, so its going to take something big to change things down here.

  3. Former Moyne Mayor – and current independent Upper House MLC – James Purcell is running as an independent.

    I’m not local, but well informed local friends tell me Purcell is a canny operator. If he’s running, he thinks he’s in with a shot. He has relished his stint in Parliament and wants to go on, albeit in the other chamber.

    Anyone give him a realistic shot? I think he’s pushing it.

  4. I sincerely doubt his chances.

    For one, the Liberals are not rocked with a local scandal, like Shepparton 2014 or Ovens Valley 2018. The Liberals have kept a relatively clean image down there.

    If anything, I think it’s an attempt to save face. His election to the upper house was a miracle on preference deals, and he knows this isn’t easily replicated again. So I imagine his idea is to run for lower house, hopefully make deposit and get some funding from it. Similar story to Rachel Carling Jenkins running in Werribee instead of contesting the Upper House lottery, even though he arguably has a larger profile than she does.

    It’s also worth noting that Warnambool is the largest town in the electorate and not Port Fairy. I’m sure that his upper house stint has increased familiarity outside of Moyne LGA, but it’s a hard task.

  5. His LegCo ticket had 6% in this seat. He hopes to end up up first of the groups of Indies & get ahead of Labor and push Libs down to around 40%. Napthine in 2014 was 15% above Lib LegCo vote so I think Lib vote will fall a lot, but Labor’s candidate is local mayor & should hold traditional Labor vote (which is probably pretty enthused by Andrews). So I can’t see Purcell getting ahead of Labor. Even at b/e the independent Labor candidate came 2nd. Napthine was from Portland but I suspect Labor might do well as well as Purcell out of his personal voters. Indie problem here is that now this is a coastal urban seat there’s reasonable Labor vote.

  6. Labor has been improving its’ position in Warnambool and Portland….. there is a chance with 2 independent candidates of a change of mp…. at the byelection the independent labor candidate who was the actual alp candidate in 2014 got swings to and against him in different parts of the electorate

  7. Doukas (Country Party) has apparently made deal with Libs to preference them over Purcell though Neoh will be ahead of Libs. This is in exchange for Lib preferences to Country Party in LegCo. This makes Purcell’s road harder but I still expect last independent to finish behind Labor anyway.

  10. Theres been allot of talk about Wind power being an issue here, This area doesn’t want more Wind Farms, This will help the Liberals considering Labor is more known to invest in these types of things, Prediction: Easy Liberal hold with a swing towards them

  11. Swing to Labor after preferences bigger than I expected, though Indies did better than I expected. Not brilliant for Britnell especially compared to other first-term Lib & Nat women, some local media don’t like her.

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