Southern Metropolitan – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Georgie Crozier (Liberal), since 2010
  • Philip Dalidakis (Labor), since 2014
  • David Davis (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for East Yarra 1996-2006
  • Margaret Fitzherbert (Liberal), since 2014
  • Sue Pennicuik (Greens), since 2006

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Albert Park ALP 3.0% Caulfield LIB 4.9% Oakleigh ALP 8.2%
Bentleigh ALP 0.8% Hawthorn LIB 8.6% Prahran GRN 0.4% vs LIB
Brighton LIB 9.8% Kew LIB 10.6% Sandringham LIB 7.3%
Burwood LIB 3.2% Malvern LIB 16.3%

Seven out of eleven seats in Southern Metropolitan are held by the Liberal Party, with three held by Labor and one by the Greens.

History

The Southern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

In 2006, the ALP and Liberal Party each won two seats, and the fifth seat was won by the Greens.

In 2010, the Liberal Party won a third seat at the expense of the ALP. The 2010 result was repeated in 2014, with the Liberal Party holding three seats, while Labor and the Greens held one seat each.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal 176,94542.7-8.92.5632
Labor 104,36525.2-0.11.5118
Greens 64,36415.5-0.80.9324
Liberal Democrats19,0754.6+4.60.2763
Sex Party10,0622.4-0.70.1458
Democratic Labour Party8,9712.2+0.40.1300
Animal Justice6,8291.6+1.70.0989
Cyclists Party4,7491.1+1.10.0688
Palmer United Party3,7530.9+0.90.0544
Voluntary Euthanasia3,2710.8+0.80.0474
Australian Christians2,8540.7+0.70.0413
Family First2,7080.7-0.30.0392
Others6,2501.5
Informal10,9122.6

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal Party won two seats, and Labor won one.

We can fast forward to the last ten candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Sue Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9351 quotas
  • Margaret Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.5620
  • Erik Locke (ALP) – 0.5072
  • Craig Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2774
  • Francesca Collins (SXP) – 0.2153
  • Vince Stefano (DLP) – 0.1370
  • Nyree Walshe (AJP) – 0.1203
  • Faliana Lee (CHR) – 0.0913
  • Richard Bowen (CYC) – 0.0846
  • Dwayne Singleton (PUP) – 0.0555

Palmer United preferences mostly flowed to the Liberal Party, pushing them further ahead of Labor:

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9357
  • Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6124
  • Locke (ALP) – 0.5079
  • Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2776
  • Collins (SXP) – 0.2161
  • Stefano (DLP) – 0.1372
  • Walshe (AJP) – 0.1206
  • Lee (CHR) – 0.0914
  • Bowen (CYC) – 0.0848

The Cyclists Party’s preferences favoured the Sex Party:

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9433
  • Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6146
  • Locke (ALP) – 0.5100
  • Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2783
  • Collins (SXP) – 0.2695
  • Stefano (DLP) – 0.1375
  • Walshe (AJP) – 0.1351
  • Lee (CHR) – 0.0917

Australian Christians preferences flowed to the DLP:

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9439
  • Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6170
  • Locke (ALP) – 0.5106
  • Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2796
  • Collins (SXP) – 0.2697
  • Stefano (DLP) – 0.2196
  • Walshe (AJP) – 0.1356

The Animal Justice Party favoured the Sex Party, pushing them ahead of the LDP:

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9511
  • Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6186
  • Locke (ALP) – 0.5122
  • Collins (SXP) – 0.3742
  • Bonsor (LDP) – 0.2803
  • Stefano (DLP) – 0.2332

The Democratic Labour Party’s preferences pushed the LDP back in front of the Sex Party:

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 0.9536
  • Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6699
  • Locke (ALP) – 0.5141
  • Bonsor (LDP) – 0.4511
  • Collins (SXP) – 0.3750

The Sex Party’s preferences pushed the Greens over quota. Pennicuik had a small surplus, which mostly flowed to Labor:

  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Locke (ALP) – 0.7454
  • Fitzherbert (LIB) – 0.6785
  • Bonsor (LDP) – 0.5135

The LDP was excluded, and their preferences elected the Liberal candidate to the fifth seat:

  • Fitzherbert (LIB) – 1.1415
  • Pennicuik (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Locke (ALP) – 0.7827
  • Bonsor (LDP) – 0.0011

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Labor would be hoping to win back a second seat, either from the Liberal Party or the Greens.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in Southern Metropolitan region. The Liberal Party topped the primary vote in ten out of eleven districts, while Labor came first in Oakleigh.

The Liberal vote was highest in the spine running north-south through the seat, doing worst in the two westernmost districts (Albert Park and Prahran) while they also did less well in the easternmost districts.

Labor did best in the eastern seats of Bentleigh and Oakleigh.

The Greens vote was highest in the seats closest to the centre of Melbourne.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Southern Metropolitan region


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4 COMMENTS

  1. Labor would ideally want Liberals 3rd seat, I’d be expecting Greens to reach quota this time with a 18-19% vote, Sue Pennicuik has held that since 2006. It’d either be 3-1-1 or 2-2-1

  2. I live in Albert Park District. The shaded map is interesting, well done.

    Some Liberal and Labor MALE staff members at local electorate offices need to learn some manner on the phone too.

  3. It’s worth noting that the confusion factor of having the LDP well above the Liberals on the ballot in a way, secured a win for the 3rd Liberal (by keeping other minors out of the race and then delivering preferences to the Liberals). It’s possible that a minor party candidate could take the last spot from the Liberals on good GTV flows, but this looks to arguably be the least interesting Upper House campaign. The lower house seats are all pretty safe too, with the exception of Prahran and Bentleigh.

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