Rowville – Victoria 2018

LIB 8.4%

Incumbent MP
Kim Wells, since 2014. Previously member for Wantirna 1992-2002, member for Scoresby 2002-2014.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Rowville covers the suburbs of Lysterfield, Lysterfield South, Rowville, Rowville East, Scoresby and parts of Knoxfield and Ferntree Gully. Rowville covers southern parts of the City of Knox, and a small part of the City of Casey.

History
Rowville is a successor seat to Scoresby.

The district of Scoresby was most recently created at the 2002 election.  It had previously existed from 1945 to 1976, when it was always held by the Liberal Party.

Scoresby was won in 2002 by Liberal MP Kim Wells, whose seat of Wantirna had been abolished in the recent redistribution. Wells was re-elected in 2006 and 2010, and again as member for Rowville in 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Rowville is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.

2014 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kim Wells Liberal 18,758 53.8 -3.5
Tamika Hicks Labor 12,419 35.6 +5.7
Tim Wise Greens 2,566 7.4 +0.8
Leanne Price Rise Up Australia 1,096 3.1 +3.1
Informal 2,042 5.5

2014 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Kim Wells Liberal 20,363 58.4 -4.7
Tamika Hicks Labor 14,499 41.6 +4.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Rowville have been divided into three areas: east, north and south. The south includes Rowville, the north includes Scoresby, and the east includes Lysterfield.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.5% in the north-west to 59.5% in the east.

Voter group LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-West 55.7 9,635 27.7
East 59.5 9,129 26.2
North-West 55.5 3,503 10.1
Other votes 60.6 4,968 14.3
Pre-poll 60.4 7,604 21.8

Two-party-preferred votes in Rowville at the 2014 Victorian state election

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Liberal retain but could become a Bellwether in near future Demographic changes and the next redistribution will help that, This is in the (Correct me if im wrong) Division of Higgins, Higgins is trending more progressive and Higgins at a federal level and this seat at a state level may also poll a High Green vote, But it all depends where the preferences go

  2. Rowville is nowhere near Higgins (which is covered by parts of Malvern, Prahran, and Oakleigh). It occupies the southern third of Aston.

    Rowville is quite under quota but unless it goes south across Dandenong Creek, this should stay Liberal. The more likely scenario is moving north into Ferntree Gully, given that Mount Waverley, Bayswater, Box Hill, Forest Hill, Ringwood, Croydon, Ferntree Gully, Rowville, Monbulk and Evelyn all border each other but combined are over one quota short. Probably will see one of these seats abolished and then the other seats will soak up the rest.

  3. KrispyNachos is spot on. Either Rowville or more likely, Ferntree Gully, will be abolished at the next redistribution and Rowville will move north.

    Either way, this area will be safe Liberal.

  4. Lysterfield South is an odd inclusion in this seat. Stranger still, it doesn’t have its own booth?

  5. PRP: Ferntree Gully would be a good candidate for abolition, in which you would see Bayswater and Rowville take a lot of the territory, with Ringwood taking up more of Bayswater ND moving relatively south. You’d probably have Forest Hill move a bit more north too.

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