ALP 4.5%
Incumbent MP
Daniel Andrews, since 2002.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Mulgrave includes Mulgrave, Wheelers Hill and parts of Dandenong North, Noble Park, Noble Park North and Springvale. Mulgrave covers the south-eastern corner of the City of Monash and northern parts of the City of Greater Dandenong.
History
Mulgrave previously existed as a Liberal seat from 1958 to 1967, and was re-established in 2002. The original seat was considered a marginal Labor seat, with a 4.4% margin, but it was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Daniel Andrews, who gained an 11.8% swing.
Andrews was re-elected in 2006, and was then promoted to the ministry. He served as Minister for Health in the Brumby government from 2007 to 2010. Andrews was elected to a third term in Mulgrave in 2010, and shortly after the election was elected as Leader of the Opposition.
Andrews led Labor to victory at the 2014 election, and has served as Premier ever since.
Candidates
- Ovi Rajasinghe (Greens)
- Maree Davenport (Liberal)
- Daniel Andrews (Labor)
- Nadeem Malik (Transport Matters)
- Des Kelly (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Mulgrave is a marginal seat, but Daniel Andrews will likely retain the seat without too much trouble.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Daniel Andrews | Labor | 17,150 | 47.8 | +2.8 |
| Robert Davies | Liberal | 14,622 | 40.8 | -2.4 |
| Josh Fergeus | Greens | 2,525 | 7.0 | -0.2 |
| Norman Fenn | Family First | 969 | 2.7 | -0.3 |
| Maree Wood | Rise Up Australia | 579 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Informal | 1,960 | 5.2 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Daniel Andrews | Labor | 19,528 | 54.5 | +2.1 |
| Robert Davies | Liberal | 16,317 | 45.5 | -2.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three parts: North, South-East and South-West.
Labor won large majorities in two out of three areas, polling 62.4% in the south-east and 63.9% in the south-west. The Liberal Party polled 57.3% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 42.7 | 9,404 | 26.2 |
| South-East | 62.4 | 8,130 | 22.7 |
| South-West | 63.9 | 6,031 | 16.8 |
| Other votes | 54.2 | 6,178 | 17.2 |
| Pre-poll | 52.9 | 6,102 | 17.0 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2014 Victorian state election
As with the old federal seat of Bruce, you can see the clear demographic divide by the Monash Freeway. Affluent Wheelers Hill and middle-class Mulgrave in the north, staunchy working-class and Labor Springvale and Noble Park in the south.
I am a little surprised that Andrews hasn’t been accommodated elsewhere. The last redistribution took a big chunk out of his margin, and he didn’t seem to get much of a leadership bounce in 2014.
I was surprised Andrews didn’t get a leadership bounce. But there’s no need to accomodate him elsewhere because there’s little prospect of Labor forming government if they don’t win Mulgrave.
Andrews can be accommodated at the next redistribution (which is next term?) if necessary. It will see a big shake up of the eastern suburbs. Mulgrave is one of several seats in the region with well below average enrolment.
Other than the indignity of losing their seat on the way out, it makes sense to have leaders in bellwethers
My prediction: The Premier should hold, unless he’s going down 1992 style.