Mildura – Victoria 2018

NAT 8.0% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Peter Crisp, since 2006.

Geography
Northwestern Victoria. Mildura covers the town of Mildura itself as well as a much larger area, including parts of the New South Wales and South Australian borders. It also covers the towns of Hopetoun, Ouyen, Red Cliffs, Robinvale and Wycheproof. The seat covers the entirety of the Rural City of Mildura, the northern half of Yarriambiack Shire, most of Buloke Shire and western parts of the Rural City of Swan Hill (without including the town of Swan Hill itself).

History
Mildura has existed as an electoral district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly since 1927, and in that time it has been dominated by the Country/National Party, although there have been periods where that party has lost the seat, including the 18 years prior to the 2006 election.

The seat was first won in 1927 by Albert Allnutt. He served as a Country Party member from 1930 until 1945, when he was expelled, and shortly afterwards lost his seat.

He was succeeded by the ALP’s Louis Garlick, who held the seat for one term from 1945 to 1947. He was defeated in 1947 by the Country Party’s Nathaniel Barclay.

Barclay held the seat for two terms, losing in 1952 to the ALP’s Alan Lind. He won the seat back in 1955, and held it until his death in 1962.

Lind was succeeded by the Country Party’s Milton Whiting, who won the seat at a 1962 by-election and served in the seat until his retirement in 1988.

At the 1988 election, Liberal candidate Craig Bildstien managed to win the seat with Labor preferences, putting an end to the National Party’s local domination.

Bildstien was re-elected in 1992, but in 1996 he was defeated by independent Russell Savage.

Savage was re-elected with a large margin in 1999, following which he agreed to support a state Labor government in minority. He was again safely re-elected in 2002, but in 2006 he lost his seat to the Nationals’ Peter Crisp.

Peter Crisp was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.

Candidates

Assessment
Mildura is a reasonably safe Nationals seat.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Peter Crisp Nationals 16,79446.1-3.5
Ali CupperIndependent7,75521.3+21.3
Shane Roberts Labor 4,24411.6-3.5
Danny LeeCountry Alliance3,4859.6+9.6
Jo ClutterbuckIndependent1,5564.3+4.3
Carl J. CarterRise Up Australia1,0122.8+2.8
Morgana Russell Greens 6711.80.0
Judith FennFamily First6331.7-1.3
Mark CoryIndependent2860.8+0.8
Informal2,7637.0

2014 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Peter Crisp Nationals 21,27158.0-1.2
Ali CupperIndependent15,37942.0+1.2

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Peter Crisp Nationals 25,58570.2+5.7
Shane Roberts Labor 10,85129.8-5.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Mildura have been divided into three parts. A majority of ordinary votes were cast in a cluster of booths around the Mildura urban area. The remainder of the electorate has been split into “Central” and “South”. The “South” area includes those polling places in Buloke and Yarriambiack council areas, while the “Central” area includes those polling places in Swan Hill council area and non-urban parts of the Mildura council area.

The Nationals won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against independent Ali Cupper) in all three areas. The Nationals narrowly won with 50.9% in the Mildura area, while winning massive majorities in the central (76%) and south (81%) areas.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 10.2% in Mildura to 17.7% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %NAT 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Mildura10.250.913,98038.4
Central11.276.13,1688.7
South17.781.12,6687.3
Other votes16.265.92,3486.4
Pre-poll11.355.414,27239.2

Election results in Mildura at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. This seat will come down to local issues, I wouldn’t call this a safe nationals seat, Don’t rule out an Independant gain Upset here, Cupper is running here again and i’m sure she will run a strong campaign, Whoever wins it will come down to preferences and will likely be decided by less than 5%

  2. I’m not ruling out Ali Cupper winning this time. The mood in these rural Northern Victorian electorates for Independents this time.

    I see Ovens Valley and Benambra falling to Independents, before Mildura, but there’s still a good shot for Cupper.

  3. Wouldn’t rule out an Independent victory here, especially given there’s 5 candidates running this time instead of 10. Also, the fact that Cupper made inroads in 2014 and won 4 high-population booths is a good sign. It will come down to preferences, and will be interesting to see how Timmis, Cupper, Labor & Greens allocate preferences here. We will either be an Independent gain or Mildura becoming a tight marginal, which seems to be the growing push in these Northern Vic seats.

    Ovens Valley and Benambra will be good to watch as well – Nationals would be nervous.

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