ALP 11.9%
Incumbent MP
Martin Pakula, since 2014. Previously member of the Legislative Council for Western Metropolitan region 2006-2013, member for Lyndhurst 2013-2014.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Keysborough covers the suburbs of Braeside, Dingley Village, Keysborough and Waterways, and parts of Noble Park, Springvale and Springvale South. Keysborough covers parts of the cities of Greater Dandenong and Kingston.
History
Keysborough was created in 2014, replacing Lyndhurst, which was created in 2002. It was first won by the ALP’s Tim Holding, who had previously been elected to Springvale in 1999, before it was abolished in the 2002 redistribution.
Holding has served as a minister in the Labor government since the 2002 election and was re-elected in 2006.
At the 2010 election, Holding held on to his seat, although the margin was cut from 21.5% to less than 14%. Holding served as Shadow Treasurer until he resigned in February 2013.
The 2013 Lyndhurst by-election was won by Martin Pakula, who had represented Western Metropolitan region in the Legislative Council since 2006. Pakula had previously served as a minister from 2008 until Labor lost power in 2010. Pakula was re-elected to represent Keysborough in 2014.
Candidates
- Darrel Taylor (Liberal)
- Hung Vo (Independent)
- Usman Afzal (Transport Matters)
- Martin Pakula (Labor)
- Ken McAlpine (Greens)
- Helen Jeges (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Keysborough is a safe Labor seat.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Martin Pakula | Labor | 19,678 | 53.0 | +2.0 |
| Adrianne Fleming | Liberal | 11,811 | 31.8 | -0.9 |
| Susan Fyfield | Greens | 2,126 | 5.7 | -0.4 |
| Hung Vo | Independent | 2,000 | 5.4 | +2.0 |
| Andrew Cunningham | Rise Up Australia | 1,093 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Michael Carty | Independent | 386 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 2,393 | 6.1 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Martin Pakula | Labor | 23,013 | 61.9 | +2.4 |
| Adrianne Fleming | Liberal | 14,164 | 38.1 | -2.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.2% in the west to 73.2% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 67.4 | 8,872 | 23.9 |
| West | 55.2 | 6,047 | 16.3 |
| North | 73.2 | 5,939 | 16.0 |
| Other votes | 60.5 | 5,446 | 14.7 |
| Pre-poll | 55.6 | 10,790 | 29.1 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Keysborough at the 2014 Victorian state election
You can clearly see the difference between the middle-class Dingley/Waterways area, and most of the rest of the seat.
The old Lyndhurst was a very odd seat, the classic “bits and pieces” District that joined up all the leftover bits that didn’t fit in Cranbourne, Dandenong, or Springvale. While not perfect (Dingley and Braeside would arguably fit better in Mordialloc than here), these boundaries are a major improvement over the old ones.
My prediction: Easy Labor hold.