- Melina Bath (Nationals), since 20151
- Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), since 2014
- Daniel Mulino (Labor), since 2014
- Edward O’Donohue (Liberal), since 2006
- Harriet Shing (Labor), since 2014
1Melina Bath replaced Danny O’Brien on 16 April 2015 following Danny O’Brien’s resignation.
|Bass||LIB 4.6%||Gippsland South||NAT 15.7%||Morwell||NAT 1.8%|
|Evelyn||LIB 9.6%||Hastings||LIB 7.6%||Narracan||LIB 11.3%|
|Gembrook||LIB 9.0%||Monbulk||ALP 5.0%||Nepean||LIB 7.6%|
|Gippsland East||NAT 17.9%||Mornington||LIB 12.6%|
Eastern Victoria covers regional and rural areas to the east of Melbourne all the way to Gippsland, as well as some seats on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne.
Seven out of eleven seats are held by the Liberal Party, while three are held by the Nationals. One seat, Monbulk, is held by Labor.
Five seats cover areas well away from Melbourne: Morwell and Narracan in the Latrobe Valley, Gippsland East and Gippsland South in the Gippsland area, and Bass on the eastern side of Western Port.
The electorates of Hastings, Mornington and Nepean all cover areas on the Mornington Peninsula at the south-eastern edge of the Melbourne urban area. Evelyn, Gembrook and Monbulk cover semi-urban areas on the eastern fringe of Melbourne.
The Eastern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.
Eastern Victoria produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 election – two Liberal, two Labor and one National.
The Liberal Party lost one of their two seats in 2014, with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning a seat.
|Shooters and Fishers||10,660||2.4||+2.4||0.1464|
|Palmer United Party||10,168||2.3||+2.3||0.1397|
|Democratic Labour Party||3,080||0.7||-1.2||0.0423|
|Rise Up Australia||2,555||0.6||+0.6||0.0351|
On primary votes, the Liberal/National team retained two seats, and Labor retained one seat.
Let’s fast-forward until there were thirteen candidates running for the last two seats:
- Daniel Mulino (ALP) – 0.7342 quotas
- Andrea Millsom (GRN) – 0.5052
- Andrew Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4910
- Jim McDonald (LDP) – 0.2836
- Jeffrey Bourman (SFP) – 0.2169
- Ange Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1522
- Sarah Taylor (PUP) – 0.1416
- Kristin Bacon (AJP) – 0.1181
- Trudie Morris (FF) – 0.1043
- Meg Paul (VEP) – 0.0753
- Ash Belsar (CHR) – 0.0637
- Andrew Jones (ACA) – 0.0617
- Gary Jenkins (DLP) – 0.0441
DLP preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, and then Country Alliance preferences flowed to the LDP:
- Mulino (ALP) – 0.7351
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.5057
- Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4925
- McDonald (LDP) – 0.3374
- Bourman (SFP) – 0.2575
- Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1528
- Taylor (PUP) – 0.1423
- Bacon (AJP) – 0.1189
- Morris (FF) – 0.1059
- Paul (VEP) – 0.0757
- Belsar (CHR) – 0.0645
Australian Christians preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, and then Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed to the LDP:
- Mulino (ALP) – 0.7373
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.5092
- Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4953
- McDonald (LDP) – 0.3985
- Bourman (SFP) – 0.3106
- Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1558
- Taylor (PUP) – 0.1433
- Bacon (AJP) – 0.1210
- Morris (FF) – 0.1137
Family First preferences pushed the Shooters and Fishers into fourth place, ahead of the LDP:
- Mulino (ALP) – 0.7385
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.5098
- Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5010
- Bourman (SFP) – 0.4051
- McDonald (LDP) – 0.3997
- Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1561
- Taylor (PUP) – 0.1442
- Bacon (AJP) – 0.1228
Animal Justice preferences flowed to the Sex Party:
- Mulino (ALP) – 0.7402
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.5139
- Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5019
- Bourman (SFP) – 0.4057
- McDonald (LDP) – 0.4002
- Hopkins (SXP) – 0.2630
- Taylor (PUP) – 0.1451
Palmer United preferences again favoured the Shooters, pushing them into second ahead of the Liberal and Greens candidates:
- Mulino (ALP) – 0.7416
- Bourman (SFP) – 0.5399
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.5151
- Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5030
- McDonald (LDP) – 0.4010
- Hopkins (SXP) – 0.2641
Sex Party preferences split between the Shooters and the Greens:
- Mulino (ALP) – 0.7443
- Bourman (SFP) – 0.6774
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.6269
- Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5046
- McDonald (LDP) – 0.4030
LDP preferences mostly flowed towards the Shooters, but with some going to the Greens and the Liberal Party:
- Bourman (SFP) – 0.9522
- Mulino (ALP) – 0.7451
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.6887
- Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5619
Liberal preferences flowed most strongly towards Labor, with some going to the Shooters. Labor and the Shooters won the last two seats:
- Mulino (ALP) – 1.2172
- Bourman (SFP) – 1.0097
- Millsom (GRN) – 0.6909
- Tom Cummings (Greens)
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers hold their seat in part thanks to very strong and fortuitous preference flows. There’s a good chance this won’t work out in the same way in 2018, although it’s also possible that they will consolidate a larger primary vote to offset this risk.
The Coalition would be hoping to regain a third seat in this region.
The Liberal/National ticket topped the poll in Eastern Victoria. This ticket topped the primary vote in ten out of eleven districts in the region.
The Liberal/National vote was highest in Gippsland East and Mornington. It was lowest in Morwell and Bass.
Labor’s primary vote was highest in Morwell and Monbulk. The Greens did particularly well in Monbulk and Nepean.
Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Eastern Victoria region