Eastern Victoria – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Melina Bath (Nationals), since 20151
  • Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers), since 2014
  • Daniel Mulino (Labor), since 2014
  • Edward O’Donohue (Liberal), since 2006
  • Harriet Shing (Labor), since 2014

1Melina Bath replaced Danny O’Brien on 16 April 2015 following Danny O’Brien’s resignation.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Bass LIB 4.6% Gippsland South NAT 15.7% Morwell NAT 1.8%
Evelyn LIB 9.6% Hastings LIB 7.6% Narracan LIB 11.3%
Gembrook LIB 9.0% Monbulk ALP 5.0% Nepean LIB 7.6%
Gippsland East NAT 17.9% Mornington LIB 12.6%

Eastern Victoria covers regional and rural areas to the east of Melbourne all the way to Gippsland, as well as some seats on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne.

Seven out of eleven seats are held by the Liberal Party, while three are held by the Nationals. One seat, Monbulk, is held by Labor.

Five seats cover areas well away from Melbourne: Morwell and Narracan in the Latrobe Valley, Gippsland East and Gippsland South in the Gippsland area, and Bass on the eastern side of Western Port.

The electorates of Hastings, Mornington and Nepean all cover areas on the Mornington Peninsula at the south-eastern edge of the Melbourne urban area. Evelyn, Gembrook and Monbulk cover semi-urban areas on the eastern fringe of Melbourne.

History
The Eastern Victoria region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

Eastern Victoria produced the same result at both the 2006 and 2010 election – two Liberal, two Labor and one National.

The Liberal Party lost one of their two seats in 2014, with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers winning a seat.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal/Nationals 181,57841.6-11.52.4942
Labor 126,66729.0+0.61.7400
Greens 37,0538.5-1.80.5090
Liberal Democrats20,7124.7+4.70.2845
Sex Party10,8832.5+2.50.1495
Shooters and Fishers10,6602.4+2.40.1464
Palmer United Party10,1682.3+2.30.1397
Animal Justice8,2901.9+1.90.1139
Family First7,3721.7-1.60.1013
Voluntary Euthanasia5,2881.2+1.20.0726
Country Alliance4,2931.0-2.20.0590
Australian Christians4,4701.0+1.00.0614
Democratic Labour Party3,0800.7-1.20.0423
Rise Up Australia2,5550.6+0.60.0351
Others3,7190.9
Informal13,3353.0

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal/National team retained two seats, and Labor retained one seat.

Let’s fast-forward until there were thirteen candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Daniel Mulino (ALP) – 0.7342 quotas
  • Andrea Millsom (GRN) – 0.5052
  • Andrew Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4910
  • Jim McDonald (LDP) – 0.2836
  • Jeffrey Bourman (SFP) – 0.2169
  • Ange Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1522
  • Sarah Taylor (PUP) – 0.1416
  • Kristin Bacon (AJP) – 0.1181
  • Trudie Morris (FF) – 0.1043
  • Meg Paul (VEP) – 0.0753
  • Ash Belsar (CHR) – 0.0637
  • Andrew Jones (ACA) – 0.0617
  • Gary Jenkins (DLP) – 0.0441

DLP preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, and then Country Alliance preferences flowed to the LDP:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7351
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5057
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4925
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.3374
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.2575
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1528
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1423
  • Bacon (AJP) – 0.1189
  • Morris (FF) – 0.1059
  • Paul (VEP) – 0.0757
  • Belsar (CHR) – 0.0645

Australian Christians preferences flowed to the Shooters and Fishers, and then Voluntary Euthanasia preferences flowed to the LDP:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7373
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5092
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.4953
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.3985
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.3106
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1558
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1433
  • Bacon (AJP) – 0.1210
  • Morris (FF) – 0.1137

Family First preferences pushed the Shooters and Fishers into fourth place, ahead of the LDP:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7385
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5098
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5010
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.4051
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.3997
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.1561
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1442
  • Bacon (AJP) – 0.1228

Animal Justice preferences flowed to the Sex Party:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7402
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5139
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5019
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.4057
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.4002
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.2630
  • Taylor (PUP) – 0.1451

Palmer United preferences again favoured the Shooters, pushing them into second ahead of the Liberal and Greens candidates:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7416
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.5399
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.5151
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5030
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.4010
  • Hopkins (SXP) – 0.2641

Sex Party preferences split between the Shooters and the Greens:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7443
  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.6774
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.6269
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5046
  • McDonald (LDP) – 0.4030

LDP preferences mostly flowed towards the Shooters, but with some going to the Greens and the Liberal Party:

  • Bourman (SFP) – 0.9522
  • Mulino (ALP) – 0.7451
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.6887
  • Ronalds (LIB) – 0.5619

Liberal preferences flowed most strongly towards Labor, with some going to the Shooters. Labor and the Shooters won the last two seats:

  • Mulino (ALP) – 1.2172
  • Bourman (SFP) – 1.0097
  • Millsom (GRN) – 0.6909

Candidates

  • Tom Cummings (Greens)

Assessment
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers hold their seat in part thanks to very strong and fortuitous preference flows. There’s a good chance this won’t work out in the same way in 2018, although it’s also possible that they will consolidate a larger primary vote to offset this risk.

The Coalition would be hoping to regain a third seat in this region.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal/National ticket topped the poll in Eastern Victoria. This ticket topped the primary vote in ten out of eleven districts in the region.

The Liberal/National vote was highest in Gippsland East and Mornington. It was lowest in Morwell and Bass.

Labor’s primary vote was highest in Morwell and Monbulk. The Greens did particularly well in Monbulk and Nepean.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Eastern Victoria region

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2 COMMENTS

  1. It will be interesting to see how much profile the SFF MLCs have garnered in their 4 years to pump up their primary vote. That’s a big test of a “micro” party trying to become a “minor” party.

    They certainly cannot rely on 2-4% primary vote to keep winning them seats.

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