Eastern Metropolitan – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Bruce Atkinson (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for Koonung 1992-2006
  • Richard Dalla-Riva (Liberal), since 2006. Previously MLC for South Yarra 2002-2006
  • Samantha Dunn (Greens), since 2014
  • Shaun Leane (Labor), since 2006
  • Mary Wooldridge (Liberal), since 2014

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Bayswater LIB 4.6% Eltham ALP 2.7% Mount Waverley LIB 4.6%
Box Hill LIB 5.7% Ferntree Gully LIB 7.8% Ringwood LIB 5.1%
Bulleen LIB 10.6% Forest Hill LIB 4.8% Warrandyte LIB 11.6%
Croydon LIB 9.3% Ivanhoe ALP 3.4%

The Eastern Metropolitan region mostly covers areas to the east and south of the Yarra River, but includes two seats on the north side of the Yarra – Eltham and Ivanhoe.

Nine out of eleven seats are held by the Liberal Party. Labor only holds the two marginal seats north of the Yarra. Most Liberal seats in the area are held with reasonably solid margin, ranging from 4.6% in Bayswater and Mount Waverley to 11.6% in Warrandyte.

History
The Eastern Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

The first three elections (from 2006 to 2014) produced the same result at each election – three Liberals and two Labor. Indeed, the region elected the same five individual MLCs at these three elections.

In 2014, Labor lost its second seat to Greens candidate Samantha Dunn.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal 193,78545.7-4.22.7432
Labor 121,53828.7-2.41.7205
Greens 44,39010.5-1.80.6284
Democratic Labour Party9,7262.3-0.20.1377
Sex Party8,7002.1+2.10.1232
Animal Justice7,2441.7+1.70.1025
Australian Christians6,8221.6+1.60.0966
Family First5,7451.4-1.50.0813
Liberal Democrats5,6661.3+1.30.0802
Palmer United Party5,5651.3+1.30.0788
Voluntary Euthanasia4,5791.1+1.10.0648
Shooters and Fishers3,5190.8+0.80.0498
Others6,5751.6
Informal12,2372.8

Preference flows
On primary votes, the Liberal Party retained two seats, and Labor retained one seat.

The late stages of this preference count tell an interesting story about how preferences flow in the group ticket voting system. The three largest parties held a substantial lead for the last two seats, but were essentially deprived of any preference flows for most of the count. Minor party preferences tended to flow to either the Australian Christians or the Voluntary Euthanasia Party, but there was a clear split between right-leaning parties and left-leaning parties. If these parties had coordinated there were enough preferences to push one of these minor parties into the lead, but instead VEP preferences flowed mostly to the Greens, and the minor party preference flows failed to elect a candidate.

Let’s fast forward to the last twelve candidates standing. Most candidates hadn’t gained much ground since the primary vote, but the Australian Christians had gained .036 quotas (moving up from seventh to fifth) and the Voluntary Euthanasia Party had gained 0.026 quotas (moving up from eleventh to eighth).

  • Richard Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.7547 quotas
  • Brian Tee (ALP) – 0.7169
  • Samantha Dunn (GRN) – 0.6248
  • Pat Shea (DLP) – 0.1405
  • Vicki Janson (CHR) – 0.1328
  • Stephen Barber (SXP) – 0.1274
  • Brenton Edgecombe (AJP) – 0.1064
  • David Scanlon (VEP) – 0.0911
  • Martin Myszka (FF) – 0.0830
  • Abe Salt (LDP) – 0.0813
  • Milton Wilde (PUP) – 0.0809
  • Kostandinos Giannikos (SFP) – 0.0521

Shooters and Fishers preferences flowed almost entirely to the Australian Christians, and so did the Palmer United Party, until they looked like this:

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.7568
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7186
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.6258
  • Janson (CHR) – 0.2500
  • Shea (DLP) – 0.1412
  • Barber (SXP) – 0.1296
  • Edgecombe (AJP) – 0.1078
  • Scanlon (VEP) – 0.0925
  • Myszka (FF) – 0.0842
  • Salt (LDP) – 0.0824

LDP preferences flowed to the Voluntary Euthanasia Party, pushing them up into fifth place as they were getting close to being knocked out.

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.7581
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7188
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.6262
  • Janson (CHR) – 0.2503
  • Scanlon (VEP) – 0.1683
  • Shea (DLP) – 0.1419
  • Barber (SXP) – 0.1308
  • Edgecombe (AJP) – 0.1079
  • Myszka (FF) – 0.0853

Family First preferences flowed to the Australian Christians:

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.7603
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7190
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.6268
  • Janson (CHR) – 0.3269
  • Scanlon (VEP) – 0.1688
  • Shea (DLP) – 0.1419
  • Barber (SXP) – 0.1308
  • Edgecombe (AJP) – 0.1079

Animal Justice preferences also flowed to Voluntary Euthanasia, pushing them well above the DLP and Sex Party:

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.7611
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7206
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.6314
  • Janson (CHR) – 0.3279
  • Scanlon (VEP) – 0.2620
  • Shea (DLP) – 0.1435
  • Barber (SXP) – 0.1340

Sex Party preferences also assisted Voluntary Euthanasia, pushing them ahead of the Australian Christians:

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.7629
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7235
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.6411
  • Scanlon (VEP) – 0.3718
  • Janson (CHR) – 0.3284
  • Shea (DLP) – 0.1447

DLP preferences helped the Australian Christians push ahead of the Voluntary Euthanasia Party:

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.7644
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7257
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.6444
  • Janson (CHR) – 0.4596
  • Scanlon (VEP) – 0.3729

VEP preferences did not help the Christians, instead mostly flowing to the Greens, with some going to the Liberal Party:

  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.9188
  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 0.8440
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7298
  • Janson (CHR) – 0.4608

Australian Christians preferences elected Dalla-Riva, with a sizeable surplus. It also brought the Greens’ Dunn very close to the last quota:

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 1.138
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.9942
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.7333

The Liberal surplus overwhelmingly favoured Labor, with only 122 below-the-line votes flowing to the Greens, but this wasn’t enough, and the Greens won the last seat by 3860 votes (or 0.0547 quotas):

  • Dalla-Riva (LIB) – 1.000
  • Dunn (GRN) – 0.9960
  • Tee (ALP) – 0.9413

Candidates

  • A – Brenton Ford (Liberal Democrats)
  • B – Indhira Bivieca Aquino (Australian Liberty Alliance)
  • C – Mel Erikozu (Country Party)
  • D – Norrian Rundle (Socialists)
  • E – Rodney Barton (Transport Matters)
  • F – Liberal
    1. Mary Wooldridge
    2. Bruce Atkinson
    3. Emanuele Cicchiello
  • G – Labor
    1. Shaun Leane
    2. Sonja Terpstra
    3. Nildhara Gadani
  • H – Jeremy Orchard (Democratic Labour)
  • I – Rosemary Lavin (Animal Justice)
  • J – Linda De Rango (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • K – Monique Ruyter (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • L – Dermot Ryan (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • M – Lynnette Saloumi (Sustainable Australia)
  • N – Bryce Larson (Aussie Battler)
  • O – Shelley van Luenen (Hudson for Northern Victoria)
  • P – Douglas Leitch (Reason)
  • Q – Samantha Dunn (Greens)
  • R – Andrew Hicks (Health Australia)

Assessment
The Liberal Party is particularly strong in Eastern Metro, and will likely retain their three seats, but this isn’t necessarily guaranteed.

Labor and the Greens will likely be competing for a seat, with a small chance that Labor could regain their second seat from the Liberal Party while the Greens hold their seat.

Regional breakdown
The Liberal Party topped the vote in Eastern Metro. Their vote was particularly strong in the seats on the south shore of the Yarra River, and did less well in the southernmost seats. The Liberal vote was particularly low in the two seats on the north side of the Yarra.

Labor’s vote is highest in Eltham and Ivanhoe, on the north side of the Yarra, but also does relatively well in the southernmost seats, in Forest Hill and Mount Waverley.

The Greens vote is best at the western end of the region, in Ivanhoe and Box Hill.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Eastern Metropolitan region

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9 COMMENTS

  1. I love that map!

    I think it could be very informative of the general scaffolding of the election to make articles on these multi-member upper house seats first, and later on to “zoom in” to the specific seats. Are you planning on doing the rest of these next?

    I wonder how many years before the VIC parliament moves away from GTVs? It would make the 3 big parties more likely to win seats and would bring Victoria inline with the Federal Senate so it should be a fairly easy reform.

    Perhaps the 2 biggest parties prefer the Greens not to have the sole balance of power though, easier to get good deals from with disparate independent/micro candidate that got lucky than a unified party?

  2. There is a risk of Greens losing out on preferences big time from other minors, but I think even at their most cynical, Labor would likely prefer the Greens over other minor parties in upper houses.

    Most minor parties have ties of some sort to the Liberal party. Even the ones that don’t (eg Reason) are avenues for corporate donors to have an outsize influence on Labor’s policy – Labor would prefer for those donors to deal with them directly.

    Labor governments with Greens in balance of power have been very successful at passing legislation.

  3. Bennee, I’ll be posting the Vic upper house seats over the course of the next week then will post the remaining lower house seats. When I’m done I’ll add a map at the top with links to the 11 seats in the region.

  4. I’m predicting 3-2, not sure which way. Labor will try harder here in an attempt to win Chisholm and Deakin federally, and North West Link would have swayed some of the voters that voted Liberal for East-West Link

    Meanwhile Samantha Dunn relied on minor party GVTs and I don’t see Druery helping out the party that cost him his livelihood.

  5. An interesting exercise would be to see what all the LC seats would have looked like if all the minor parties that preferenced Greens preferenced Labor instead. I see exactly this happening.

    I would think Greens lose everything but North and South Metro where they got a quota (or just about) on first preferences.

  6. John,

    It’s North East Link …North West Link is short hand for the metro rail project in Sydney.

    North East link is more to do with Nullumbik and Whittlesea shires getting better access to the city. Not much of a big deal for the East

  7. No idea why I typed North West on the East metro page *facepalm*

    If I remember the 2014 election correctly, the main selling points of East West Link were relieving congestion on the Eastern Freeway (despite mountains of evidence saying this wouldn’t happen) and traffic light free access to the airport from the Eastern Suburbs.

    North East link does both those things.

    I also thought the conventional wisdom was that East-West link was the reason Eastern suburbs seats had muted swings, or even swings to Liberals.

  8. Only through this site or Antony Green’s did I discover that I had a Green MLC in Easterm Metro. Samantha Dunn has been invisible for the last four years – never recall seeing her once mentioned in the local paper. The Lib MLCs have always had a much higher local profile. With Transport Matter seeming to be in the running to be elected from 0.6%, then it will either the Greens or a Lib saying sayonara to Spring Street.

  9. Only through this site or Antony Green’s did I discover that I had a Green MLC in Eastern Metro. Samantha Dunn has been invisible for the last four years – never recall seeing her once mentioned in the local paper. The Lib MLCs have always had a much higher local profile. With Transport Matter seeming to be in the running to be elected from 0.6%, then it will either the Greens or a Lib saying sayonara to Spring Street.

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