Bass – Victoria 2018

LIB 4.6%

Incumbent MP
Brian Paynter, since 2014.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Bass covers regional areas to the southeast of Melbourne, including areas on the eastern side of Western Port. Bass covers Bass Coast Shire, southern parts of Cardinia Shire, and a small part of the City of Casey. It stretches from outer suburban Pakenham to the rural towns of Lang Lang and Wonthaggi and the coastal tourist centres of Phillip Island and Inverloch.

History
Bass was created at the 2002 election, replacing the former seat of Gippsland West.

Gippsland West had been held by Kennett government minister Alan Brown from 1992 until late 1996, when he resigned to serve as Victoria’s Agent General.

The 1997 by-election was won by Susan Davies, an independent candidate who had previously been a member of the ALP. Davies supported the new Bracks minority government.

Davies contested the notional Liberal seat of Bass in 2002, as did Liberal MLC Ken Smith, whose South-Eastern province had been abolished in the redistribution.

Davies polled 21.8%, falling into third place, and Smith held the seat with a slim 0.6% margin. Smith increased his margin to 5.5% in 2006, and further again to 12.6% in 2010.

Ken Smith was elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly following the 2010 election. Smith’s Speakership was difficult in a chamber governed by a very slim coalition majority, and his position was constantly challenged by the Labor opposition. He resigned as Speaker in early 2014 after coming into conflict with rebel Liberal MP Geoff Shaw.

Smith retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Brian Paynter.

Candidates

Assessment
Bass is a marginal Liberal seat, but Labor would be doing quite well if they won here.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Brian Paynter Liberal 18,00845.3-10.2
Sanjay Nathan Labor 11,65929.4+0.6
Clare Le ServeIndependent4,28910.8+10.8
Ross Fairhurst Greens 3,6139.1-2.6
David AmorCountry Alliance9692.4-0.9
Paul ReidAustralian Christians6511.6+1.6
Angela DorianRise Up Australia5241.3+1.3
Informal2,2725.4

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Brian Paynter Liberal 21,66454.6-7.8
Sanjay Nathan Labor 18,04945.4+7.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bass have been divided into three parts. Those polling places around the Pakenham area have been grouped together, while the remainder of the electorate has been split into central and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.1% in the south to 62.7% in the centre.

Primary votes for independent candidate Clare Le Serve ranged from 4.6% in Pakenham to 16.1% in the south.

Voter groupIND prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South16.151.17,70719.4
Pakenham4.652.16,32015.9
Central14.462.74,80912.1
Other votes7.257.05,27813.3
Pre-poll10.954.715,59939.3

Election results in Bass at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Clare Le Serve.

Become a Patron!

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.