LIB 0.1%
Incumbent MP
Danielle Green (ALP), since 2002.
Geography
Northern fringe of Melbourne. Yan Yean covers Yarrambat, Diamond Creek, Wattle Glen, Hurstbridge, Laurimar, Merrnda, Whittlesea, Beveridge and Wallan, in Whittlesea, Nillumbik and Mitchell council areas.
Redistribution
Yan Yean shifted to the west, losing eastern parts of the seat including Kangaroo Ground, Panton Hill and Arthurs Creek to Eildon, and losing areas around Epping to Mill Park and Thomastown in the south-west of the electorate. In exchange, Yan Yean gained southern parts of Mitchell Shire at the western end of the electorate from Seymour.
These changes improved the Liberal position in the electorate. The electorate was previously a Labor seat held by a 4.1% margin, but the seat is now estimated to be a notional Liberal seat with a 0.1% margin. The redistribution also shifted Yan Yean from the Northern Metropolitan upper house region into Northern Victoria.
History
Yan Yean was first created in 1992, and has always been held by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1992 by Andre Haermeyer. He held the seat at the 1996 and 1999 elections, before moving to the safer seat of Kororoit in 2002. He resigned from Parliament in 2008.
In 2002, a redistribution made Yan Yean a notionally Liberal seat, and the ALP preselected Danielle Green, who managed to hold on to the seat. She was re-elected in 2006, and again in 2010.
Candidates
- Bruce Stevens (Country Alliance)
- Rob Clark (Shooters and Fishers)
- Daniel Sacchero (Greens)
- Danielle Green (Labor)
- Sam Ozturk (Liberal)
- Geraldine Roelink (Rise Up Australia)
- Rodney Baker (Family First)
Assessment
Yan Yean will be a hotly contested electorate, and will likely be won by the party that wins government. Danielle Green’s incumbent position should give her a strong chance to win, despite the redistribution, but Labor’s hold on the seat is extremely tenuous.
2010 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Danielle Green | Labor | 20,990 | 42.90 | -4.53 | 39.95 |
| Jack Gange | Liberal | 19,612 | 40.08 | +5.45 | 43.21 |
| Karin Geradts | Greens | 4,916 | 10.05 | +0.47 | 9.37 |
| Patrick Shea | Democratic Labor | 1,728 | 3.53 | +3.53 | 2.39 |
| Andrew McPherson | Family First | 1,684 | 3.44 | -0.02 | 3.13 |
| Country Alliance | 0.66 | ||||
| National | 0.50 | ||||
| Other independents | 0.80 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Danielle Green | Labor | 26,472 | 54.10 | -3.81 | 49.90 |
| Jack Gange | Liberal | 22,458 | 45.90 | +3.81 | 50.10 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Yan Yean have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the Whittlesea council area have been split into South-East and South-West. A cluster of three polling places at the southern tip of Nillumbik council area have been grouped as Central, while the remainder of booths have been grouped as North.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north and south-west, while Labor won in the south-east and central.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 6.4% in the north to 14.4% in the south-east.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| South-East | 14.42 | 46.91 | 6,720 | 22.71 |
| North | 6.44 | 50.74 | 6,582 | 22.25 |
| South-West | 8.39 | 52.15 | 4,864 | 16.44 |
| Central | 6.79 | 48.21 | 4,863 | 16.44 |
| Other votes | 9.76 | 49.61 | 6,557 | 22.16 |
Crikey sources make this close but more likely to stay labor with Eltham the only northern seat going the libs way. Cranbourne also reported to stay
I think Danielle Green will win this comfortably. Even with the redistribution, she has a high profile in the region even beyond her seat’s old boundaries. She should certainly do well in Wallan, which has trended ALP in recent elections.