Shepparton – Victoria 2014

NAT 25.9%

Incumbent MP
Jeanette Powell, since 2002. Previously Member of the Legislative Council for North Eastern Province 1996-2002.

Geography
Northern Victoria. Shepparton covers the major centres of Shepparton, Mooroopna, Nathalia and Numurkah. The electorate covers most of the Greater Shepparton council area, and western parts of Moira Shire.

Map of Shepparton's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Shepparton’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Shepparton was previously limited to the boundaries of the Greater Shepparton council area, but lost southern areas to Euroa and gained the western half of Moira Shire from Murray Valley and Rodney.

History

The seat of Shepparton first existed from 1945 to 1955, and again since 1967. In that time it has always been won by the Country/National Party.

Peter Ross-Edwards held Shepparton for first the Country Party and then National Party from 1967 until his resignation in 1991.

The 1991 by-election was won by National candidate Don Kilgour. He was re-elected in 1992, 1996 and 1999, and retired in 2002.

In 2002, the National Party’s Jeanette Powell, who had served as an MLC for North-East province since 1996, won the seat in a close contest with the Liberal candidate. She was re-elected in 2006 and 2010.

Jeanette Powell served as a minister from 2010 to early 2014, when she moved to the backbench after announcing her plans to retire at the 2014 election.

Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Jeanette Powell is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Shepparton is a very safe Nationals seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jeanette Powell Nationals 17,609 52.90 +4.5 53.50
Dennis Patterson Country Alliance 6,826 20.50 +20.5 20.29
Anthony Fullarton Labor 5,245 15.80 -3.20 15.73
Lachlan Slade Greens 1,631 4.90 +0.2 4.62
Paul Wickham Independent 958 2.90 +2.9 2.41
Malcolm Moore Family First 769 2.30 +0.3 2.66
Shannon Smith Independent 232 0.70 +0.7 0.58
Other independents 0.20

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jeanette Powell Nationals 20,041 60.20 76.28
Dennis Patterson Country Alliance 13,329 39.80 23.72
Polling places in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election. Moira in green, Shepparton Central in blue, Shepparton North in yellow, Shepparton South-West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election. Moira in green, Shepparton Central in blue, Shepparton North in yellow, Shepparton South-West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Shepparton have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Shepparton council area have been split between Central, North and South-West, with Shepparton Central covering the urban area. The remainder of the electorate, in Moira Shire, has also been grouped together.

The Nationals primary vote ranges from 49.8% in Shepparton South-West to 57.5% in Moira.

The Country Alliance came second, with a primary vote ranging from 18.9% in Moira to 28.5% in Shepparton North.

The ALP came third, with a vote ranging from 9.3% in Shepparton North to 17.1% in Shepparton Central.

Voter group ALP % CA % NAT % Total % of votes
Shepparton Central 17.12 21.51 51.65 14,559 37.35
Shepparton South-West 14.17 22.38 49.75 7,065 18.12
Moira 15.74 18.87 57.51 5,368 13.77
Shepparton North 9.25 28.49 54.99 1,513 3.88
Other votes 15.80 16.72 56.34 10,476 26.87
Nationals primary votes in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Nationals primary votes in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Country Alliance primary votes in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Country Alliance primary votes in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes in Shepparton at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Nationals primary votes in the Shepparton urban area at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Nationals primary votes in the Shepparton urban area at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Country Alliance primary votes in the Shepparton urban area at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Country Alliance primary votes in the Shepparton urban area at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes in the Shepparton urban area at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes in the Shepparton urban area at the 2010 Victorian state election.

5 COMMENTS

  4. I’m claiming credit for being the first person to predict Sheed’s win, but that was at 7:04pm on election night.

    She was one of the few independents to have a professional-looking website. Maybe I should’ve taken more notice of it.

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