Narre Warren South – Victoria 2014

ALP 7.4%

Incumbent MP
Judith Graley, since 2006.

Geography
Narre Warren South covers central parts of the City of Casey, specifically the suburbs of Hampton Park and Narre Warren South and parts of Berwick and Lynbrook.

Map of Narre Warren South's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Narre Warren South’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Narre Warren South lost Hallam and Narre Warren to Narre Warren North, lost parts of Berwick to Berwick, and lost Cranbourne North to Cranbourne. The seat then gained parts of Hampton Park and Lynbrook from Lyndhurst. These changes increased the Labor margin from 6.7% to 7.4%>

History
Narre Warren South was created at the 2002 election. It was considered to be a marginal Liberal seat, but was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Dale Wilson, who gained a swing of about 14%.

Wilson lost a preselection battle to Judith Graley in 2006. Graley won the seat, only suffering a small swing against the ALP. Graley won a second term in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Narre Warren South is a reasonably safe Labor seat. The seat could be vulnerable if there was a substantial swing to the Liberal Party, but that is unlikely in 2014.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Judith Graley Labor 22,007 47.95 -4.87 48.97
Gary Rowe Liberal 17,402 37.92 +4.10 37.78
Claus Endres Greens 3,244 7.07 +0.64 6.92
Mark Konkel Family First 1,645 3.58 -3.36 3.42
Nathan Dodd Democratic Labor 685 1.49 +1.49 1.23
Ian George Independent 493 1.07 +1.07 0.62
Angela Dunleavy Independent 416 0.91 +0.91 0.63
Country Alliance 0.10
Other independents 0.34

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Judith Graley Labor 26,109 56.74 -4.20 57.40
Gary Rowe Liberal 19,910 43.26 +4.2 42.60
Polling places in Narre Warren South at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in orange, East in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Narre Warren South at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in orange, East in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Narre Warren South have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.

The ALP won solid majorities of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, winning 59.9% in the centre and 66.6% in the west. The Liberal Party won a slim 51% majority in the east.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
East 6.79 49.05 8,736 23.58
Central 5.61 59.93 8,479 22.89
West 7.90 66.64 7,903 21.34
Other votes 7.30 54.95 11,924 32.19
Two-party-preferred votes in Narre Warren South at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Narre Warren South at the 2010 Victorian state election.