Narracan – Victoria 2014

LIB 16.0%

Incumbent MP
Gary Blackwood, since 2006.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Narracan covers the Shire of Baw Baw and the town of Moe in the City of Latrobe. Narracan covers the towns of Moe, Warragul, Narracan, and a number of smaller rural towns between Melbourne and the Latrobe Valley.

Map of Narracan's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Narracan’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Narracan expanded west, gaining parts of Cardinia Shire on the fringe of Melbourne, including Garfield and Nar Nar Goon. The electorate reaches close to Pakenham, without containing any part of the town itself. On the other side of the electorate, areas immediately to the east of Moe was transferred to Morwell, including Newborough. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 12.4% to 16%.

History
Narracan was first created at the 1967 election. It has been held by the Liberal Party for most of that time, except for the period from 1999 to 2006.

Narracan was first won in 1967 by Liberal minister Jim Balfour, who had previously held the seat of Morwell from 1955 to 1967. He held Narracan until his retirement in 1982, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government until 1977.

Narracan was won in 1982 by John Delzoppo of the Liberal Party. He served in a variety of Opposition frontbench positions during the 1980s, and when the Liberal Party won power in 1992, he was elected Speaker, serving in the role until his retirement in 1996.

In 1996, Narracan was won by Florian Andrighetto, also a Liberal. Andrighetto held the seat for one term, losing Narracan to the ALP’s Ian Maxfield in 1999.

Maxfield held the seat for two terms. He increased his margin to 6.8% in 2002, but a swing of over 9% in 2006 saw him lose to the Liberal Party’s Gary Blackwood.

Gary Blackwood won a second term in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Narracan is a safe Liberal seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Gary Blackwood Liberal 21,636 56.67 +14.64 60.86
Tony Flynn Labor 11,161 29.23 -10.62 25.61
Belinda Rogers Greens 2,967 7.77 +0.61 7.69
Brian Dungey Country Alliance 1,638 4.29 +4.29 4.19
Jenny Webb Independent 777 2.04 +2.04 1.66

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Gary Blackwood Liberal 23,814 62.39 +9.74 66.00
Tony Flynn Labor 14,353 37.61 -9.74 34.00
Polling places in Narracan at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, Moe in orange, North in red, Warragul in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Narracan at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, Moe in orange, North in red, Warragul in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Narracan have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the main two towns in the electorate of Warragul and Moe have been grouped together. Those polling places in Cardinia Shire have been grouped as “West”, while the remaining polling places in Baw Baw Shire have been grouped into “North” and “Central”.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred in four out of five areas, with a vote ranging from 69.7% in Warragul to 71% in Central and North. The ALP won a 58.7% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in Moe.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
Central 7.19 70.95 10,407 27.27
Moe 6.65 41.29 4,845 12.69
Warragul 8.91 69.71 4,712 12.35
West 7.38 70.18 3,687 9.66
North 7.56 70.97 2,394 6.27
Other votes 8.18 68.55 12,121 31.76
Two-party-preferred votes in Narracan at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Narracan at the 2010 Victorian state election.