Gippsland East – Victoria 2014

NAT 23.1%

Incumbent MP
Tim Bull, since 2010.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Gippsland East covers East Gippsland Shire and northern parts of Wellington Shire, covering the towns of Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Orbost, Omeo, Maffra and Heyfield.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Gippsland East has existed as a single-member district in the Victorian Legislative Assembly continuously since 1889. In over 120 years, the seat has only been held by seven members.

The seat was first held by unaligned MP Henry Foster from 1889 to 1902. He served as Mining Minister from 1894 to 1899.

Foster died in 1902, and the by-election was won by James Cameron. He eventually joined the Liberal Party and then the Nationalist Party, and served as a minister from 1909 to 1913.

Cameron was defeated in 1920 by Farmers Union candidate Albert Lind. Lind eventually became a member of the Country Party, and served as a minister in a number of state governments from 1935 to 1952. He served as Deputy Premier from 1937 to 1943.

Lind retired in 1961, and was succeeded by the Country Party’s Bruce Evans. He served as Country Party deputy leader from 1964 to 1970, and retired from Parliament at the 1992 election.

David Treasure of the Nationals won Gippsland East in 1992. He was re-elected in 1996, but in a shock result in 1999 he was defeated by abalone diver Craig Ingram, who was an independent candidate. Ingram came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on One Nation preferences, and then won the seat on Labor preferences.

Ingram joined with two other independents in supporting a minority Labor government, sharing this balance of power from 1999 to 2002. Ingram’s primary vote increased from 24% to 41% in 2002, and he won comfortably with an 11.7% margin after preferences. He was re-elected in 2006 with a slightly reduced margin.

In 2010, Ingram lost to Nationals candidate Tim Bull with a swing of 20.5%. Bull has served as Minister for Local Government and Minister for Aboriginal Affairs since March 2014.

Candidates

1. David Hutchison (Country Alliance)
2. Scott Campbell-Smith (Greens)
3. Jenny Jack (Rise Up Australia)
4. Kate Maxfield (Labor)
5. Peter Gardner (Independent)
6. Tim Bull (Nationals)
7. Leigh McDonald (Independent)
8. Peter McKenzie (Independent)

Assessment
Gippsland East is now a safe Nationals seat, barring a serious independent challenge.

2010 election result

2010 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths in Gippsland East have been divided into three parts. Polling places in East Gippsland Shire have been split into East and Lakes, while those in Wellington Shire have been grouped together.

The Nationals primary vote ranged from 40.2% in the East to 49.3% in Wellington.

The primary vote for independent candidate Craig Ingram ranged from 16.5% in Wellington to 27.5% in the East.

The Liberal Party came third with a vote ranging from 14% in Wellington to 14.8% in the East.