Gembrook – Victoria 2014

LIB 8.8%

Incumbent MP
Brad Battin, since 2010.

Geography
South-eastern fringe of Melbourne. Gembrook covers the suburbs of Berwick, Cockatoo, Emerald, Gembrook, Officer and parts of Reservoir. Gembrook mostly covers northern parts of Cardinia Shire, and a small part of the City of Casey.

Map of Gembrook's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Gembrook’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Gembrook previously covered parts of the Yarra Ranges, including Yarra Junction, Warburton and McMahons Creek, and these areas were transferred to Eildon. Gembrook also previously covered Belgrave South and Narre Warren East, and those areas were transferred to Monbulk. Gembrook’s boundaries were otherwise relatively unchanged. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 6.8% to 8.8%.

History
Gembrook was created at the 2002 election, when the existing seats of Berwick and Pakenham were abolished. Former Liberal deputy leader Maclellan was challenged by Shadow Treasurer Robert Dean for preselection after both their seats were abolished.

Dean won preselection for Gembrook, but during the 2002 election campaign it was revealed that he had failed to keep his details on the electoral roll, and was thus unable to stand. He was forced to withdrawal, and Gembrook was won at the 2002 election by the ALP’s Tammy Lobato. She won reelection in 2006 by only 498 votes.

In 2010, Lobato was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Brad Battin.

Candidates

  1. Damian Heffernan (Independent)
  2. Collin Ross (Labor)
  3. Simon Beard (Family First)
  4. Frank Dean (Independent)
  5. Michael Schilling (Greens)
  6. Alan Stoops (Country Alliance)
  7. Ferdie Verdan (Rise Up Australia)
  8. Brad Battin (Liberal)

Assessment
Gembrook was one of the most marginal seats at the 2010 election, but is now held by a sizeable 8.8% margin. The seat will probably stay with the Liberal Party.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Brad Battin Liberal 18,427 47.93 +7.77 52.91
Tammy Lobato Labor 12,638 32.87 -6.35 32.43
Brent Hall Greens 3,689 9.60 -1.42 8.42
Rebecca Filliponi Family First 1,032 2.68 -1.08 1.82
Peter McConachy Nationals 904 2.35 -1.60 0.63
Alex Krstic Country Alliance 871 2.27 +2.27 1.51
Larry Norman Democratic Labor 372 0.97 +0.97 0.99
Hayden Ostrom Brown Independent 227 0.59 +0.59 0.47
Frank Dean Independent 145 0.38 -0.40 0.21
Robert Belcher Independent 142 0.37 +0.37 0.26
Other independents 0.36

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Brad Battin Liberal 21,926 56.75 +7.35 58.80
Tammy Lobato Labor 16,707 43.25 -7.35 41.20
Polling places in Gembrook at the 2010 Victorian state election. North in orange, South-East in blue, South-West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Gembrook at the 2010 Victorian state election. North in orange, South-East in blue, South-West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Gembrook have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won large majorities in the South-East (62.9%) and the South-West (65.7%). The ALP won a slim 51.6% majority in the north of the seat.

The Greens came third in Gembrook, with a vote ranging from 6% in the south-west to 10.5% in the north.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
South-West 6.05 65.66 7,444 22.47
North 10.46 48.45 5,897 17.80
South-East 8.10 62.85 4,459 13.46
Other votes 8.88 58.76 15,330 46.27
Two-party-preferred votes in Gembrook at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Gembrook at the 2010 Victorian state election.

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