Ferntree Gully – Victoria 2014

LIB 11.5%

Incumbent MP
Nick Wakeling, since 2006.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers the suburbs of Ferntree Gully, Wantirna, Wantirna South and parts of Boronia and Knoxfield, all within the City of Knox.

Map of Ferntree Gully's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Ferntree Gully’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Ferntree Gully was radically redrawn, with two thirds of the former electorate being transferred to Rowville and Bayswater. The suburb of Ferntree Gully was previously at the northern end of the electorate, but it is now at the eastern end of the electorate. In exchange, Ferntree Gully gained the entire Wantirna area from Bayswater and Scoresby. The new areas have roughly the same partisan make-up as the old areas, so these changes only cut the Liberal margin from 12% to 11.5%.

History
Ferntree Gully was created prior to the 2002 election. It was considered to have a 7.6% notional margin for the Liberal Party in 2002, but was won by the ALP’s Anne Eckstein with 2.3% margin.

In 2006, Liberal candidate Nick Wakeling defeated Eckstein by 27 votes, following a recount. Wakeling was re-elected in 2010 with a much larger margin.

Candidates

  1. Steve Raymond (Greens)
  2. Robert Roytel (Australian Christians)
  3. Matt Posetti (Labor)
  4. Russell Wulf (Country Alliance)
  5. Nick Wakeling (Liberal)

Assessment
Ferntree Gully is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, and is only vulnerable to the ALP during a landslide.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Nick Wakeling Liberal 22,020 55.54 +11.38 54.99
Josh Cullinan Labor 11,768 29.68 -12.39 30.46
Steve Bullock Greens 2,850 7.19 +0.08 8.02
Martin Leahy Sex Party 1,492 3.76 +3.76 2.67
Allister Rouse Family First 957 2.41 -2.15 2.89
Tanya Murphy Democratic Labor 560 1.41 +1.41 0.98

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Nick Wakeling Liberal 24,591 62.00 +11.96 61.50
Josh Cullinan Labor 15,070 38.00 -11.96 38.50
Polling places in Ferntree Gully at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Ferntree Gully at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ferntree Gully have been split into east, north and south. These areas largely reflect those parts of the electorate that were previously contained in Ferntree Gully (east), Bayswater (north) and Scoresby (south).

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.6% in the east to 64.6% in the south.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
East 8.57 58.63 12,146 33.50
North 6.98 61.38 9,451 26.07
South 7.71 64.61 7,499 20.68
Other votes 8.78 62.93 7,162 19.75
Two-party-preferred votes in Ferntree Gully at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Ferntree Gully at the 2010 Victorian state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Interesting that the predecessor to this electorate Knox was in 1973 one of only 3 Labor seats east of Yarra along with Carrum & Dandenong sign of eastern suburbs drift against Labor.

  2. I honestly have so much trouble believing that the Liberals had a 2PP of 58% in the eastern Dandenong Ranges side of the suburb of Ferntree Gully. Especially considering in Upper Ferntree Gully in the seat of Monbulk Labor had 56% I think.
    I would think the green vote would be high in the eastern part, but the image isn’t here.

  3. Hi Adam, my policy is that I post maps for parties that poll over 10% (unless they are covered in the two-candidate-preferred vote), and the Greens only polled 8% in Ferntree Gully on the new boundaries.

    The Greens polled 8.6% in the seven booths at the eastern edge of the electorate. It was higher than the other two parts of the seat.

  4. Even that part of Ferntree Gully is still pretty much bog-standard outer suburbia. Quite different from the “Green living” (or whatever you want to call it) demographic in the Dandenong Ranges.

    Those Upper FTG booths in Monbulk would probably also be drawing votes from the more Green and Labor friendly towns further up the mountains.

  5. Mark, I live in the area, in Tecoma, just 5 minutes from Ferntree Gully, and I wouldn’t say that part of Ferntree Gully is standard outer suburbia. Even have a look on Street View at streets around Kia Ora Pde, or even as far in as Bruce Crescent, and tell me it’s not in the mountains/forest.
    I actually think anywhere east of Dorset Road in Ferntree Gully and Boronia/The Basin should be in the Monbulk electorate, with Mooroolbark and possibly Kilsyth taken out.

Comments are closed.