Broadmeadows – Victoria 2014

ALP 20.0%

Incumbent MP
Frank McGuire, since 2011.

Geography
Northern Melbourne. Broadmeadows is mostly contained within Hume council, along with a small part of Moreland council, covering the suburbs of Broadmeadows, Campbellfield, Coolaroo, Dallas, Fawkner, Jacana, Meadow Heights and Somerton and parts of Glenroy, Roxburgh Park and Westmeadows.

Map of Broadmeadows' 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Broadmeadows’ 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Broadmeadows underwent some changes on its southern boundary, gaining Fawkner from Thomastown and losing Hadfield and parts of Glenroy to Pascoe Vale. These changes cut the ALP margin from 21% to 20%.

History
Broadmeadows was first created at the 1955 election, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1962.

The seat was first won in 1955 by the Liberal Party’s Harry Kane. He held the seat until his death in 1962.

The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s  John Wilton. Wilton held the seat from 1962 until his retirement at the 1985 election.

In 1985, sitting Member for Glenroy Jack Culpin moved to Broadmeadows after his previous district was abolished. Culpin held the seat for one term.

In 1988, Jim Kennan moved from the Thomastown Legislative Council seat to Broadmeadows. He became Deputy Premier in 1990 and became Leader of the Opposition following the ALP’s election defeat in 1992.

Kennan resigned from Parliament in June 1993. The ensuing by-election was won by John Brumby, who had been Legislative Council member for Doutta Galla since another by-election in March the same year.

Brumby had been elected Leader of the Victorian ALP following Kennan’s resignation before his move to the Legislative Assembly. Brumby served as Labor leader until March 1999, when he stepped down in favour of Steve Bracks.

Brumby served as a senior minister in the Bracks government, serving as Assistant Treasurer (with Bracks himself as Treasurer) until he was appointed Treasurer in 2000. In 2007, Brumby was elected Labor leader and Premier following Steve Bracks’ retirement.

John Brumby led the ALP to the 2010 election, when the party narrowly lost power. Brumby resigned shortly after the election, and the 2011 by-election was won by Labor candidate Frank McGuire.

Candidates

  1. Wayne Knight (Family First)
  2. Frank McGuire (Labor)
  3. Jaime de Loma-Osorio Ricon (Greens)
  4. Mohamed Hassan (Voice for the West)
  5. Evren Onder (Liberal)
  6. John Rinaldi (Independent)

Assessment
Broadmeadows is a very safe Labor seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Brumby Labor 19,125 62.29 -5.35 60.64
Samli Ozturk Liberal 7,761 25.28 +12.38 26.31
Jaime De Loma-Osorio Greens 2,304 7.50 +0.9 7.88
Kevin Butler Democratic Labor 778 2.53 +2.53 1.99
Peter Byrne Independent 737 2.40 +2.4 2.04
Family First 1.14

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
John Brumby Labor 21,811 70.98 -10.91 70.00
Samli Ozturk Liberal 8,919 29.02 +10.91 30.00

2011 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Frank McGuire Labor 14,305 53.43 -8.85
Celal Sahin Independent 5,396 20.16 +20.16
Graham Dawson Greens 1,626 6.07 -1.43
Graeme Marr Independent 1,620 6.05 +6.05
Mark Hobart Democratic Labor 1,501 5.61 +3.07
Merinda Davis Sex Party 1,343 5.02 +5.02
Peter Byrne Independent 530 1.98 -0.42
Joseph Kaliniy Independent 277 1.03 +1.03
Gerrit Schorel-Hlavka Independent 173 0.65 +0.65

2011 by-election two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Frank McGuire Labor 18,704 69.87
Celal Sahin Independent 8,067 30.13
Polling places in Broadmeadows at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in orange, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Broadmeadows at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in orange, North in blue, South in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Broadmeadows have been divided into three areas: Central, North and South.

At the 2010 election, the ALP won a comfortable majority in all three areas, ranging from 68.8% in the south to 71.6% in the north.

At the 2011 election, the ALP’s primary vote ranged from 48.4% in the north to 54.94% in the south. The second-polling candidate, Celal Sahin, polled almost 30% in the north, and 24.8% in the centre, but only 9% in the south of the electorate.

2010 election breakdown

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 6.36 71.55 9,771 30.19
Central 7.08 70.44 8,309 25.67
South 10.67 68.78 6,263 19.35
Other votes 8.39 67.68 8,022 24.79

2011 by-election breakdown

Voter group Sahin % ALP % Total % of votes
North 29.20 48.35 9,001 33.62
Central 24.83 50.56 7,413 27.69
South 9.06 54.94 3,986 14.89
Other votes 8.88 63.02 6,371 23.80
Two-party-preferred votes in Broadmeadows at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Broadmeadows at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2011 Broadmeadows by-election.
Labor primary votes at the 2011 Broadmeadows by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Celel Sahin at the 2011 Broadmeadows by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Celel Sahin at the 2011 Broadmeadows by-election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. According to the ABC site, the ALP’s 2cp vote in the by-election is actually 69.9% (with Celal Sahin obviously coming second). Not sure where they get that from… the larger figure with the Greens supposedly coming second is from the VEC, who don’t seem to have re-checked it.

    The Democrats and an independent (sitting MP Jack Culpin, who’d lost preselection) came second at two elections in the 80’s, and both of those get counted as ALP vs Lib margins. The 1993 by-election (no Lib candidate) had Labor on 67% and a bunch of independents far behind, and that didn’t even have preferences distributed. (Although I bet any votes which didn’t have all boxes numbered would’ve still been called informal, which is kinda perverse.)

  3. The main section of the VEC’s website just lists whatever 2CP count from the night, even if the figures changed, unless preferences needed to be distributed. Even in some cases where seatwide preferences are distributed it doesn’t mean the booth results were distributed in that way.

  4. Didn’t VEC start counting in b/e with assumption Greens would be 2nd ? Presumably not having looked at social composition of seat – very Green

Comments are closed.