Braddon – Tasmania 2018

Incumbent MPs

  • Shane Broad (ALP)*, since 1996.
  • Adam Brooks (LIB), since 2010.
  • Roger Jaensch (LIB), since 2014.
  • Jeremy Rockliff (LIB), since 2002.
  • Joan Rylah (LIB), since 2014.

*Broad filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Bryan Green on 17 March 2017.

Geography
Braddon covers the West Coast and North-West of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s northwest. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Devonport and Waratah/Wynyard councils along with part of Latrobe council. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.

History
Braddon was first created for the 1956 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Braddon. This replaced the seat of Darwin, which had previously covered northwestern Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

The ALP won four seats and the Anti-Socialists two in Darwin at the 1909 election. The ALP and Liberals divided the seats equally 3-3 at the 1912 and 1913 elections. The Liberals lost one of their three seats in 1916 and 1919, and in 1922 the Liberals were reduced to one seat, with the Country Party winning two.

From 1925 to 1955 the ALP and the Nationalist/Liberal parties split the seats in Darwin 3-3 with two exceptions. The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1931 and the ALP won a 4-2 majority in 1941. A 3-3 split was repeated in the new seat of Braddon in 1956.

The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959 and 1964 after Braddon gained a seventh seat. The Liberals lost one of their three seats to an independent in 1969, and that seat went to the ALP in 1972, giving them a 5-2 majority. The ALP again won 4-3 majorities in 1976 and 1979, and the Liberals gained 4-3 majorities in 1982 and 1986.

The ALP lost one of their three seats to Green independent Di Hollister in 1989, while the Liberals maintained their four seats. The Liberals gained a 5-1-1 majority in 1992, and reverted to a 4-2-1 majority in 1996.

The Liberal vote collapsed in 1998 when Braddon’s seats were cut to five, and the Liberals lost two of their seats, as did Greens MP Di Hollister. The ALP gained a third seat, for a 3-2 split. This result was maintained in 2002, 2006 and 2010. It was the only seat at the 2002 and 2006 elections where the Greens failed to elect an MP.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens. Two Labor sitting MPs were re-elected, while Steve Kons retired and his seat was won by the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran. On the Liberal side, Jeremy Rockliff was re-elected, while sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley was narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Adam Brooks.

There was a 13% swing to the Liberal Party in 2014, while Labor lost 17% and the Greens lost 6%. 7% of the electorate voted for the Palmer United Party (at the time represented in the Senate by Jacqui Lambie). The Greens lost their sole seat, while Labor also lost one of their two seats. The Liberal Party doubled their representation from two to four.

Candidates

Assessment
The 2014 result was very strong for the Liberal Party: it will be hard for them to hold on to all four of their seats. The Liberal Party will likely hold three seats, although a bad election could see them drop to two.

Labor will be hoping to win back a second seat. This electorate is the hardest seat for the Greens in Tasmania, and they will likely struggle here. The Jacqui Lambie Network is strongest in this seat, and will be the unknown factor: it wouldn’t be shocking if JLN won a seat.

2014 result

CandidateVotes%Quota
Adam Brooks16,07325.01.4999
Jeremy Rockliff15,16823.61.4154
Roger Jaensch3,0094.70.2808
Joan Rylah2,6334.10.2457
Kyron Howell8951.40.0835
Liberal Party 37,778 58.8 3.5253
Bryan Green6,60610.30.6165
Brenton Best3,6485.70.3404
Shane Broad2,6544.10.2477
Justine Keay1,3822.10.1290
Darryl Bessell6531.00.0609
Australian Labor Party 14,943 23.2 1.3944
Kevin Morgan2,2913.60.2138
Steve Green8471.30.0790
Kev Deakin5390.80.0503
Scott Alexander5330.80.0497
Julian Brown4040.60.0377
Palmer United Party 4,614 7.2 0.4306
Paul Basil O’Halloran3,2945.10.3074
Melissa Houghton4090.60.0382
Philip Nicholas3140.50.0293
Sally O’Wheel2530.40.0236
Chris Cornell2490.40.0232
Tasmanian Greens 4,519 7.0 0.4217
Ken Dorsey7471.20.0697
Benji Benjamin5070.80.0473
Liz Van Der Linde-Keep1350.20.0126
Nationals 1,389 2.2 0.1296
Kevin Swarts5350.80.0499
Australian Christians 535 0.8 0.0499
Mick Anderson4120.60.0384
Tony W Brown1010.20.0094
Total Others 513 0.8 0.0479
Informal3,4665.1

Booth breakdown

Braddon has been divided into six areas. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast local government areas were grouped along council boundaries. Polling places in Devonport have been grouped together, along with the only polling place in the Latrobe council area.

Booths on King Island have been grouped together, with those in the sparsely populated west of the electorate’s mainland split between North West and South West.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the vote in every area, ranging from 53.2% in Burnie to 61.4% in the north-west.

The Labor vote ranged from 20% in the north-west to 27.8% in Burnie.

The Palmer United Party came third, with a vote ranging from 6.3% in Devonport to 12.4% in the south-west. The Greens vote ranged from 4.5% in the south-west to 8.5% on King Island.

Voter groupLIB %ALP %PUP %GRN %Total votes% of votes
Devonport60.324.06.36.114,89623.2
Central Coast60.121.27.18.412,14518.9
North West61.420.26.87.111,27617.5
Burnie53.227.87.85.610,30016.0
South West56.323.712.44.52,5624.0
King Island59.222.78.08.58161.3
Other votes58.223.37.08.412,29619.1


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