USA 2010 Archive

Tea Party makes its mark in Republican primaries

By
Ben Raue
 – September 16, 2010

The Tea Party movement has significantly shaped American politics since it emerged early in 2009. The movement emerged out of the Ron Paul campaign for President as a libertarian-conservative campaign against taxation, which quickly spread to cover most right-wing causes, and acting as an anti-establishment movement, strongly opposed to Obama administration policies such as national healthcare, but also opposed to the Republican establishment. The movement also has included prominent elements who have cast doubt on the legitimacy of Obama’s presidency, questioned his citizenship status and compared his government to socialism and fascism.

In the last few months, Tea Party activists have shifted the direction of a number of Republican primary races, shifting the Republican party to the right and risking their chances of winning or retaining those Senate seats.

In Florida, Governor Charlie Crist was challenged by the further-right candidate Marco Rubio, and Crist eventually left the Republican party to run as an independent. While Rubio is still the frontrunner and may well win the seat, there is now a high chance that the Republicans will lose the seat to the newly independent Crist.

In Kentucky, a solidly red state, the Republican primary chose Rand Paul, son of Texas congressman Ron Paul, over the establishment candidate. Paul made a number of controversial comments immediately after winning the primary, criticising President Obama for being critical of BP for their role in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, and defending the right of businesses to discriminate on the basis of race. Since then, Paul’s campaign has settled down, and he is the favourite to win, but his lead over Democratic candidate Jack Conway is not very solid, and he is having to campaign hard in a state that would normally go easily to a Republican.

In Alaska, incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski was seen as one of the more moderate Republicans, although hardly out of the Republican mainstream. Murkowski was challenged by Joe Miller, who received the endorsement of former Governor Sarah Palin. Like in Kentucky, the Republican candidate in Alaska is still the frontrunner in the Senate race, but Miller’s victory energised supporters of Democratic candidate Scott McAdams, with Democratic bloggers raising substantial sums of money for a Democrat running in such a small state.

In Delaware, a state dominated by Democrats, the seat previously filled by Vice President Joe Biden will be filled in a special election in November. The Republican establishment swung in behind Mike Castle, who has held Delaware’s only seat in the House of Representatives since 1992. Castle was challenged by Christine O’Donnell, who won the primary with the active support of Tea Party groups. Prior to the primary it was predicted that the Democrats had little to no chance of retaining their seat in Delaware, but O’Donnell is now the underdog in the Senate race.

There is no doubting that the Tea Party movement has revitalised the Republican party after their large defeats at the 2006 and 2008 elections, giving the party a platform on which to fight the Obama administration, and motivating Republicans to vote in the midterms, when it is notoriously difficult to get voters to turn out. On the other hand, the Republicans are aiming for a large victory that could possibly give them ten more Senate seats and a Senate majority. They won’t be able to do that without winning solid blue states like Delaware, or falling short in usually reliable states such as Florida, Kentucky and Alaska.

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USA 2010: Delaware Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – September 16, 2010

Delaware is going to the polls this November in a special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Vice President Joe Biden in 2008.

Biden won his Senate seat in 1972, defeating sitting Republican senator Caleb Boggs, who was running for a third term. Biden served six full terms as Senator for Delaware, until 2008. In 2008, he simultaneously ran for a seventh term as Senator and for Vice President. He won both races, and resigned from the Senate shortly after.

His Senate seat was filled by his former chief of staff, Ted Kaufman. Kaufman never intended to run in the 2010 special election to fill the remaining four years of the Senate term.

Delaware’s other Senate seat was held by Republicans continuously from the 1946 election until the 2000 election. In 2000, five-term Senator Bill Roth (R) was defeated by Tom Carper (D), who was re-elected in 2006.

With sitting Senator Ted Kaufman not running, Delaware’ special election this year is an open race. The Democratic primary was won unopposed by Chris Coons, New Castle County Executive.

The Republican nomination was originally assumed to go to Mike Castle, who has held Delaware’s only House of Representatives seat since 1992, and had previously served as Governor of Delaware. Castle was opposed in the primary by Christine O’Donnell, who ran as the Republican candidate for the Senate in 2008, and was beaten badly by Joe Biden. For most of the primary campaign, Castle was solidly in front.

In late August, sitting Senator Lisa Murkowski lost the Republican Senate primary in Alaska to Joe Miller, a more conservative candidate who ran an anti-establishment campaign with the support of former Governor Sarah Palin and tea party activists. This victory saw tea party activists push resources into Delaware, where O’Donnell was close to tea party positions, while Castle has been a moderate Republican with deep establishment connections.

In yesterday’s primary, O’Donnell achieved an upset win, with 53% of the vote. It was widely predicted that Castle was likely to win a general election, flipping a Senate seat from Democrat to Republican in a very liberal state. While O’Donnell certainly has a chance of victory, her chances are much slimmer, and make Democratic candidate Coons the front-runner in the race.

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USA 2010: Florida governor

By
Ben Raue
 – September 14, 2010

The sitting Governor of Florida is Charlie Crist, who was elected in 2006 as a Republican. Florida had a long history of electing Democratic governors, but in recent years governors have been predominantly Republican.

The Democrats won every gubernatorial election from 1876 to 1964, with the exception of the 1916 election, when the race was won by the Prohibition Party. The Republicans won the Governor’s race in 1966 and 1986, but the Democrats still dominated for the rest of the century. Florida is a state that has shifted from Democrats to Republicans as the civil rights movement and the ‘southern strategy’ saw conservative white southerners move away from the Democrats to the Republicans.

In 1998, Lieutenant Governor Buddy MacKay lost to Jeb Bush, son of former President George H W Bush and brother of future President George W Bush. MacKay briefly served as Governor after the death of his predecessor in December 1998.

Bush served two full terms in Florida, but was prohibited from running for a third term in 2006. He was succeeded by Florida Attorney-General Charlie Crist (R).

In 2010, Crist decided to run for the open Senate seat, rather than seek a second term as Governor. Crist’s primary campaign did not go well, with his rival Marco Rubio convincingly beating him in primary polls. Crist was a relatively moderate Republican who had often resisted taking positions for partisan advantage. In April 2010 he left the Republican party to stand as an independent for the Senate in the face of poor primary polling, and he is serving out the remainder of his gubernatorial term as an independent.

The Republican gubernatorial primary was won by Rick Scott, a campaigner against government-run healthcare with links to the Tea Party movement. Scott defeated Florida Attorney-General Bill McCollum 46% to 43%. The Democratic primary was convincingly won by Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

Scott led over Sink in most polls until early August, but since then Sink has taken the lead, winning most polls over Scott for the last month. She has won some with large margins, although others only have her slightly in front.

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USA 2010: Illinois Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – September 13, 2010

Illinois is the fifth-largest state in the United States, and is usually a reliably Democratic state, including the city of Chicago.

At the 2010 election, the seat up for election is a Democratic seat previously held by President Barack Obama. The seat is currently held by Roland Burris, who was appointed to the seat in December 2008.

Both Illinois seats have been dominated by Democrats in recent decades, with the Republicans only winning a Senate seat once since 1980.

The seat now held by Burris was won off the Republicans at a special election in 1970 by Adlai Stevenson III, son of the former presidential candidate and grandson of the former Vice President. Stevenson was re-elected in 1974 and retired in 1980. The seat was won in 1980 and 1986 by Alan Dixon (D). In 1992, Dixon lost the Democratic primary to Carol Moseley Braun, who went on to win the seat. Moseley Braun was one of only two African Americans to win election to the Senate in the 20th century.

Illinois’ other Senate seat was won by Republican Charles Percy at the 1966, 1972 and 1978 elections, before he was defeated by Democratic candidate Paul Simon in 1984. Simon won re-election in 1990, before retiring at the 1996 election. The seat was won in 1996 by Congressman Dick Durbin (D), who won re-election in 2002 and 2008.

Moseley Braun only served for one term, losing in 1998 to Republican candidate Peter Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald didn’t stand in the 2004 election. The Democrats selected Illinois State Senator Barack Obama. The Republicans originally selected Jack Ryan, but a scandal saw him withdraw, and he was replaced by Alan Keyes, a Republican figure who had never won elected office and had never lived in Illinois. Obama won the race with almost 70% of the vote.

The 2004 campaign rose the profile of Obama, who was elected President in 2008. Following his election, he resigned from his Senate seat. The Governor of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich (D), was responsible for appointing a temporary replacement for Obama for the final two years of his Senate term. Blagojevich was taped discussing how he would give the Senate seat to whoever gave him personal benefit, and made embarrassing comments about his attitude to appointing a US Senator. After he was arrested by federal officials, most serious contenders stood back from consideration for the seat, and he appointed Roland Burris, a less prominent figure in Illinois politics.

Burris has had a difficult period as a US senator, facing corruption allegations and extremely low poll ratings.

The Democratic primary this year was won by State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The Republican primary was won by Congressman Mark Kirk.

Polling for the general election is very even, with Kirk and Giannoulias both winning a number of recent polls, never by large margins. Giannoulias led in most polls up to March 2010, but from April to June most polls showed Kirk in front by a slim margin. Since July, polling figures have been mixed.

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USA 2010: Florida Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – September 10, 2010

Florida is a rapidly growing state that in recent decades has become one of the largest states in the United States. At each of the last six ten-year censuses, Florida has gained a number of new congressional seats, growing from six seats in 1950 to 25 seats in 2002.

Florida is also a key swing state in presidential elections. The state has gone with the winning party at nearly every election in recent decades, only going against the trend in 1960 and 1992. In 2000, the result hinged on a contested result in Florida, delaying the election’s winner being decided for over a month.

This year’s Senate race is unique, with the formerly Republican Governor of Florida neck-and-neck with the Republican candidate, with the Democrat trailing in third place.

Florida’s Senate seats were long dominated by the Democrats, who held both seats continuously from the late 1870s until the late 1960s. At the 1968 election, sitting Democratic senator George Smathers retired, and his seat was won by Republican Edward Gurney.

Gurney served one term, and retired at the 1974 election, after being embroiled in a scandal earlier that year.

At the 1974 election, the seat was won by Richard Stone (D), who won a narrow primary runoff for the Democratic nomination. Stone faced a fierce primary challenge in 1980, and lost the Democratic nomination that year. Later that year, the Democrats lost his Senate seat to Republican candidate Paula Hawkins.

In 1986, Hawkins lost her seat to Governor Bob Graham (D).

While that seat had flipped back and forth between the parties from 1968 to 1986, the Democrats consistently held the second Senate seat. It was held for three terms from 1970 to 1988 by Lawton Chiles. He retired in 1988, but was elected Governor of Florida in 1990.

Chiles’ seat was won in 1988 by Republican US Representative Connie Mack. Mack won the seat for a second term in 1994, before retiring at the 2000 election. His seat was won in 2000 by former US Representative Bill Nelson (D), who won re-election in 2006.

Graham held his Senate seat from the 1986 election until his retirement before the 2004 election. The seat was won by Mel Martinez (R), who had served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the first term of the Bush Administration.

Martinez held the seat until he resigned in September 2009. Governor Charlie Crist (R) appointed his former chief of staff, George LeMieux.

Crist had already announced plans to run for the Senate before Martinez in mid 2009, before Martinez resigned. His main rival in the primary was Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives.

Rubio ran to the right, while Crist was seen as more of a centrist, supporting parts of President Obama”s stimulus bill.

Polling in mid 2009 showed Crist well ahead of Rubio in primary polling, but Rubio caught up to Crist by December 2009. By February 2010, Rubio had a solid lead in primary polling.

In April 2010, Crist withdrew from the Republican primary and announced that he would run for the Senate, amidst polls showing him trailing in primary polling, but competitive in a three-way general election contest. Rubio went on to win the Republican victory practically unopposed.

The Democratic primary was won decisively by Congressman Kendrick Meek, who defeated billionaire Jeff Greene, 57-31.

Polling for the general election has shown Crist and Rubio neck-and-neck in the race for the seat, with Meek polling about 20% of the vote. Many Democrats have already moved across to Crist, but there is a sizeable group of Democrats who have refused to move across to the more electable former Republican, but they will be key to this race.

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USA 2010: California Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – September 7, 2010

The largest state in the United States, California usually leans heavily towards the Democrats, having been won by the Democrats at every election since 1992. The state now has 53 members of the House of Representatives. Despite California’s liberal bent, it has not been uncommon for Republicans to win seats in the Senate, or be elected Governor.

Both of California’s Senate seats are currently held by Democrats. The seat up for election in 2010 has been held by Democrats continuously since 1968, when it was won by Alan Cranston. Cranston won re-election in 1974, 1980 and 1986.

In 1970, California’s other Senate seat was also won by the Democrats, with John Tunney defeating George Murphy. Tunney lost to S.I. Hayakawa (R) in 1976. Hayakawa retired in 1982 and was succeeded by fellow Republican Pete Wilson. Wilson won re-election in 1988. In 1990, he was elected Governor of California. He resigned as Senator in early 1991 days before being sworn in, and appointed State Senator John Seymour, also a Republican, to the seat.

In 1992, Californians voted in both a regular Senate election to elect a successor to the retiring Cranston, and in a special election to fill Wilson’s former seat for its final two years.

Cranston’s seat was won by US Representative Barbara Boxer, while Seymour lost the special election to former Mayor of San Francisco, Dianne Feinstein. Feinstein and Boxer were the first two women to win Senate seats in California.

Both Boxer and Feinstein have held their seats ever since. Boxer won easy re-election in 1998 and 2004, winning 53% and 57% respectively. Feinstein won a close race in 1994, winning 46% to 44% for the Republican candidate. She won a second full term in 2000 with 55% and a third term in 2006 with 59%.

Boxer is running for a fourth term in 2010. Boxer easily won the Democratic primary, with over 80% of the vote.

The Republican primary was comfortably won by Carly Fiorina, a former Chief Executive Officer of Hewlett Packard who had never previously stood for elected office. Originally she was in a close contest with former Congressman Tom Campbell and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore.

For most of the campaign, Boxer has had a solid lead in polls, but that begin to slip in July, with Fiorina winning a number of polls in August. Having said that, the race is extremely close, and it’s yet to be seen if Fiorina can maintain her position against such a successful figure.

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USA 2010: Nevada Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – September 3, 2010

Nevada is a swing state, going with the party winning each presidential election since 1980. Nevada is also a rapidly growing state, having gained a second House of Representatives seat after the 1980 census, and a third after the 2000 census. Nevada is expected to gain a fourth seat after this year’s census. This year’s seat is held by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D).

Both Senate seats were held by Democrats throughout the 1960s, until one of the two seats was won by Republican Paul Laxalt in 1974, who defeated Lieutenant Governor Harry Reid.

The other Senate seat was won by Republican candidate Chic Hecht in 1982, defeating Senator Howard Cannon in an upset result.

Laxalt retired from his seat at the 1986 election, and the seat was won by Democrat Harry Reid, who had held a seat in the House of Representatives since 1982. Two years later, Senator Hecht lost his seat to Governor Richard Bryan (D).

Reid won re-election in 1992, 1998 and 2004, and Bryan won re-election in 1994, before retiring in 2000. At the 2000 election, Bryan’s seat was lost to John Ensign (R), who had challenged Reid in 1998, losing by 428 votes. Ensign was re-elected in 2006.

Reid easily won the Democratic primary, winning 75% of the vote. His closest rival was the “none of the above” option, which polled 10%. Nevada is unique in giving voters the opportunity to formally cast a vote for no candidate.

The Republican primary was hotly contested, and was won by Nevada Assembly member Sharron Angle, who polled 40%, with two other candidates polling over 20%. Angle only took the lead in primary polling in the week before the June vote.

Angle is a far-right candidate, having advocated the abolition of the US Department of Education and Social Security and US withdrawal from the United Nations. She is also a climate sceptic.

Angle led Reid in most polls up until mid-July, but Reid has won most polls since that point, although they have never been by much, suggesting a very tight contest.

Nevada has a history of tight Senate contests. Reid himself has had two, losing to Paul Laxalt in 1974 by less than 600 votes, and defeating John Ensign in 1998 by 428 votes. In 1964, sitting Democrat Howard Cannon defeated Laxalt by 48 votes in a year which saw a landslide victory for Democratic President Lyndon Johnson.

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USA 2010: Ohio Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – September 2, 2010

Ohio is a typical swing state, having gone to the winning presidential candidate at every election since 1964. Ohio’s two Senate seats are currently split between the two parties.

Both Ohio seats were held by the Democrats from the late 1970s until the early 1990s. In 1994, Mike DeWine (R) won one of Ohio’s Senate seats off the Democrats upon the retirement of Howard Metzenbaum.

Former astronaut John Glenn retired in 1998 from the seat up for election this year, and Ohio Governor George Voinovich (R) won the seat. In 2000, DeWine won re-election, as did Voinovich in 2004.

In 2006, DeWine lost his Senate seat to US Representative Sherrod Brown (D).

This year, George Voinovich is retiring from his Senate seat. The Republican primary was won unopposed by Rob Portman. Portman served as a member of the House of Representatives from 1993 until 2005. Portman served as US Trade Representative from 2005 to 2006, then served as Director of President Bush’s Office of Management and Budget until 2007.

In the Democratic primary, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, with 55% of the vote.

Portman is in a slight leading position in recent polls, although as recently as June, Fisher was holding a slight lead. Portman also has a massive advantage in terms of cash in hand, and would have to be assumed to be in the lead, although most analysts see the state as a toss-up.

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USA 2010: Colorado Senate

By
Ben Raue
 – September 1, 2010

Colorado has recently acted as a swing state at all levels, moving back and forth between the Democrats and Republicans. Most recently, the Democrats won both Senate seats off the Republicans at the 2004 and 2008 elections

This year’s seat was won by Ken Salazar (D) in 2004. Salazar was state Attorney-General. The seat had previously been won by Republicans only once since it was won by Gary Hart in 1974, which was in 1998. The seat was held from 1993 to 2005 by Ben Nighthorse Campbell, who was elected in 1992 as a Democrat, but switched parties in 1995, and was re-elected as a Republican in 1998 before retiring in 2004.

The other Colorado Senate seat is held by Mark Udall (D), who won the seat in 2008. The seat had previously been won for five terms in a row by Republicans, with the last Republican senator, Wayne Allard, retiring in 2008.

Salazar resigned as Senator in January 2009 upon his appointment as President Obama’s Secretary of the Interior. Colorado’s Democratic Governor nominated Michael Bennet, superintendent of Denver Public Schools, to take over the seat.

Bennet won the Democratic primary over Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives, with 54.2% in a two-candidate race.

The Republican primary in August was won by Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, defeating former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton 51.6% to 48.4%. Buck had been a relatively unknown underdog in his first run for statewide office. He ran to the right of Norton with the support of much of the Tea Party movement, gaining momentum and defeating his prominent opponent. Buck’s far-right positions have provoked attacks from the Bennet campaign.

Buck has gained on Bennet in recent polls, and is now slightly ahead in most recent polls, although Bennet has disputed this lead, releasing internal polls showing him with a slight lead.

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USA 2010: Senate elections

By
Ben Raue
 – August 31, 2010

Voters in 37 US states will go to the polls on November to elect members of the US Senate.

In 34 states, senators will be elected for full six-year terms, replacing those senators elected in 2004.

In three other states, special elections will be held to elect senators to serve the remainder of terms after seats previously fell vacant and were temporarily filled by appointments by each state’s governor. Seats in New York (last elected 2006) and Delaware (last elected 2008) were vacated by Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden upon their appointment to positions in the Obama administration. Robert Byrd’s seat in West Virginia, last filled in 2006, was vacated in June on Byrd’s death.

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